Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

11 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Down (42%) · Down at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$197.65

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 98.5¢

+18% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 26 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$887

Total Shares2,380

Combined PnL-$110.23

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,314

Combined PnL-$87.42

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$505.52	$491.72	-$0.99	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$432.03	$429.84	-$2.18	98% 4234-88 (4322)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 74.9¢	$512.07	$338.3	-$82.88	58% 5126-3784 (8910)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 35.4¢	$456.5	$243.71	-$212.78	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
└ Down leg	Downavg 93¢	$162.75	$156.63	-$6.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$293.75	$87.09	-$206.66
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 50.2¢	$191.29	$196.35	+$5.07	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 68.8¢	$194.58	$129.72	-$16.4	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 90.3¢	$133.57	$127.84	-$2.88	57% 393-300 (693)
ST stepahead<$100	Downavg 66¢	$90.57	$96.73	+$6.16	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 26.4¢	$188.62	$86.44	-$101.78	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 90¢	$43.15	$45.29	+$2.14	53% 970-876 (1846)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86¢	$39.95	$43.64	+$3.69	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 7.2¢	$34.72	$36.16	+$1.44	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 5.9¢	$22	$35.15	+$13.15	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$22.19	$27.43	+$5.25	38% 743-1229 (1972)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$17.24	$16.91	-$0.33	65% 2664-1450 (4114)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 52¢	$16.95	$16.78	-$0.16	60% 4054-2741 (6795)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$14.9	$15.15	+$0.25	50% 908-909 (1817)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$9.43	$9.6	+$0.17	58% 3933-2861 (6794)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$7	$8.7	+$1.7	49% 908-934 (1842)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$7.65	$7.58	-$0.08	48% 1426-1527 (2953)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 11.2¢	$3.48	$3.57	+$0.1	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$2.24	$2.14	-$0.11	48% 2415-2654 (5069)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2	$1.88	-$0.13	16% 6-32 (38)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 10.4¢	$1.25	$1.14	-$0.11	42% 1925-2669 (4594)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$28.62	$0.81	-$27.81	51% 1073-1021 (2094)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505.52

Value

$491.72

PnL

-$0.99

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$432.03

Value

$429.84

PnL

-$2.18

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$512.07

Value

$338.3

PnL

-$82.88

Record

58%

5126-3784 (8910)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$456.5

Value

$243.71

PnL

-$212.78

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

Both legs:

Down$162.7593¢-$6.13

Up$293.7535.4¢-$206.66

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$191.29

Value

$196.35

PnL

+$5.07

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$194.58

Value

$129.72

PnL

-$16.4

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$133.57

Value

$127.84

PnL

-$2.88

Record

57%

393-300 (693)

stepahead<$100

Down

Invested

$90.57

Value

$96.73

PnL

+$6.16

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$188.62

Value

$86.44

PnL

-$101.78

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$43.15

Value

$45.29

PnL

+$2.14

Record

53%

970-876 (1846)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$39.95

Value

$43.64

PnL

+$3.69

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$34.72

Value

$36.16

PnL

+$1.44

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$35.15

PnL

+$13.15

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

flippingsharks<$100

Down

Invested

$22.19

Value

$27.43

PnL

+$5.25

Record

38%

743-1229 (1972)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$17.24

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$0.33

Record

65%

2664-1450 (4114)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$16.95

Value

$16.78

PnL

-$0.16

Record

60%

4054-2741 (6795)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

908-909 (1817)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

3933-2861 (6794)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$1.7

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

1426-1527 (2953)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.13

Record

16%

6-32 (38)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.11

Record

42%

1925-2669 (4594)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$28.62

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$27.81

Record

51%

1073-1021 (2094)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 26 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.