Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 35%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 26 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.02 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 92.2¢ | $666.34 | $540.33 | -$54.88 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $503.85 | $490 | -$8.35 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $253.85 | — | -$253.85 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 79.4¢ | $372.69 | $438.11 | +$85.42 | 58% 3933-2861 (6794) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 23.2¢ | $198.98 | — | -$198.98 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 12.9¢ | $270.43 | — | -$270.43 | 50% 3495-3507 (7002) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 24.7¢ | $183.5 | — | -$183.5 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 34.3¢ | $216.14 | — | -$216.14 | 48% 1126-1234 (2360) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.6¢ | $74.37 | — | -$74.37 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
AL Alpharo28CTR | Upavg 46.2¢ | $111.02 | — | -$99.27 | 57% 393-300 (693) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $39.09 | $46.73 | +$7.64 | 53% 970-876 (1846) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 39.2¢ | $203.41 | — | -$188.41 | 58% 5126-3784 (8910) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 97.5¢ | $51.32 | $44 | -$7.32 | 49% 908-934 (1842) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 34.1¢ | $124.39 | — | -$124.39 | 55% 4545-3668 (8213) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $39.48 | $73.55 | +$34.07 | 51% 2054-1988 (4042) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $38.63 | $38.56 | +$0.43 | 67% 3766-1879 (5645) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $22.13 | $35.28 | +$13.15 | 60% 4054-2741 (6795) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $15.6 | — | -$15.6 | 44% 2305-2951 (5256) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $8.75 | — | -$8.75 | 48% 2311-2552 (4863) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.7¢ | $17.39 | — | -$17.39 | 52% 2912-2637 (5549) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $11.75 | — | -$11.75 | 52% 5118-4806 (9924) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $4.19 | $5.05 | +$0.86 | 38% 743-1229 (1972) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $9.02 | — | -$7.78 | 62% 4407-2657 (7064) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.7¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 64% 1950-1110 (3060) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 42% 1925-2669 (4594) |
Invested
$1,189.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.02
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$666.34
Value
$540.33
PnL
-$54.88
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Invested
$503.85
Value
$490
PnL
-$8.35
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Both legs:
Invested
$372.69
Value
$438.11
PnL
+$85.42
Record
58%
3933-2861 (6794)
Invested
$198.98
Value
—
PnL
-$198.98
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Invested
$270.43
Value
—
PnL
-$270.43
Record
50%
3495-3507 (7002)
Invested
$183.5
Value
—
PnL
-$183.5
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Invested
$216.14
Value
—
PnL
-$216.14
Record
48%
1126-1234 (2360)
Invested
$74.37
Value
—
PnL
-$74.37
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
Invested
$111.02
Value
—
PnL
-$99.27
Record
57%
393-300 (693)
Invested
$39.09
Value
$46.73
PnL
+$7.64
Record
53%
970-876 (1846)
Invested
$203.41
Value
—
PnL
-$188.41
Record
58%
5126-3784 (8910)
Invested
$51.32
Value
$44
PnL
-$7.32
Record
49%
908-934 (1842)
Invested
$124.39
Value
—
PnL
-$124.39
Record
55%
4545-3668 (8213)
Invested
$39.48
Value
$73.55
PnL
+$34.07
Record
51%
2054-1988 (4042)
Invested
$38.63
Value
$38.56
PnL
+$0.43
Record
67%
3766-1879 (5645)
Invested
$22.13
Value
$35.28
PnL
+$13.15
Record
60%
4054-2741 (6795)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$15.6
Value
—
PnL
-$15.6
Record
44%
2305-2951 (5256)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.75
Value
—
PnL
-$8.75
Record
48%
2311-2552 (4863)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$17.39
Value
—
PnL
-$17.39
Record
52%
2912-2637 (5549)
Invested
$11.75
Value
—
PnL
-$11.75
Record
52%
5118-4806 (9924)
Invested
$4.19
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.86
Record
38%
743-1229 (1972)
Invested
$9.02
Value
—
PnL
-$7.78
Record
62%
4407-2657 (7064)
Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
64%
1950-1110 (3060)
Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
42%
1925-2669 (4594)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $540.33
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $438.11
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
almach
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
bosona
CTRUp — $0
Alpharo28
CTRUp — $0