Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$281.7

Smart Money Signal

26 of 33 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,720

Combined PnL+$338.42

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$56.72

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 92.3¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$136.26	58% 3933-2861 (6794)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$16.97	98% 4234-88 (4322)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 76.6¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$213.57	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 53.6¢	$737.58	$752.52	+$89.4	58% 5126-3784 (8910)
ST stepahead	Upavg 67.8¢	$511.52	$546.24	+$34.72	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 62.6¢	$507.88	$535.62	+$28.34	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$532.64	$490	+$0.21	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$244.45	$490	+$248.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$248.55	—	-$248.49
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 56.1¢	$272.18	$278.62	+$6.44	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
AL almach	Upavg 41.5¢	$154.46	$235.27	+$80.8	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 88.1¢	$229.02	$248.29	+$19.27	53% 970-876 (1846)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 95¢	$193.5	$203.7	+$10.2	44% 309-388 (697)
BO bosona	Upavg 50.7¢	$118.68	$143.65	+$24.97	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$156.19	$131	-$25.19	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 12.8¢	$272.04	—	+$104	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
BoneOhio	Upavg 55¢	$108	$100	+$19	70% 1755-745 (2500)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 72¢	$107.32	$99.06	+$23.78	57% 393-300 (693)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$65.85	—	-$65.85	49% 908-934 (1842)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$78.54	$70	+$11.96	48% 2400-2586 (4986)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 86¢	$57.32	$60	+$2.68	52% 5118-4806 (9924)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 92.1¢	$51.6	$56	+$4.4	29% 547-1318 (1865)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$23.65	$45	+$21.35	51% 1073-1021 (2094)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$41.21	$44.39	+$5.84	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 63¢	$62.14	$53	+$12.52	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 90¢	$37.5	$41.67	+$4.17	38% 81-135 (216)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$32.4	$41.25	+$8.85	48% 2415-2654 (5069)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$1,624.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$136.26

Record

58%

3933-2861 (6794)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,195.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.97

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,227.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$213.57

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$737.58

Value

$752.52

PnL

+$89.4

Record

58%

5126-3784 (8910)

stepahead

Invested

$511.52

Value

$546.24

PnL

+$34.72

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$507.88

Value

$535.62

PnL

+$28.34

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$532.64

Value

$490

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$244.4549.9¢+$248.7

Down$248.5549.2¢-$248.49

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$272.18

Value

$278.62

PnL

+$6.44

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

almach

Invested

$154.46

Value

$235.27

PnL

+$80.8

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$229.02

Value

$248.29

PnL

+$19.27

Record

53%

970-876 (1846)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$193.5

Value

$203.7

PnL

+$10.2

Record

44%

309-388 (697)

bosona

Invested

$118.68

Value

$143.65

PnL

+$24.97

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$156.19

Value

$131

PnL

-$25.19

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$272.04

Value

—

PnL

+$104

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

BoneOhio

Invested

$108

Value

$100

PnL

+$19

Record

70%

1755-745 (2500)

Alpharo28

Invested

$107.32

Value

$99.06

PnL

+$23.78

Record

57%

393-300 (693)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$65.85

Value

—

PnL

-$65.85

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$78.54

Value

$70

PnL

+$11.96

Record

48%

2400-2586 (4986)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$57.32

Value

$60

PnL

+$2.68

Record

52%

5118-4806 (9924)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$51.6

Value

$56

PnL

+$4.4

Record

29%

547-1318 (1865)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$23.65

Value

$45

PnL

+$21.35

Record

51%

1073-1021 (2094)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$41.21

Value

$44.39

PnL

+$5.84

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$62.14

Value

$53

PnL

+$12.52

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$41.67

PnL

+$4.17

Record

38%

81-135 (216)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$32.4

Value

$41.25

PnL

+$8.85

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

Smart Money Signal

26 of 33 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc140eeec...2d3b86

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794732300

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $1.8K

+$136.26

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

+$16.97

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $1.0K

-$213.57

Hcrystallash

Up — $752.52

+$89.4

stepahead

Up — $546.24

+$34.72

CrouchPredictions

Up — $535.62

+$28.34

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0.21

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $278.62

+$6.44

almach

Up — $235.27

+$80.8

EZTRADENL2

Up — $248.29

+$19.27

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