Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

18 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$124.93

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 27 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,604

Combined PnL+$191.41

Down9 traders

Total Value$624.15

Total Shares1,378

Combined PnL-$66.47

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 72.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$72.76	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 83.2¢	$509.3	$611.69	+$102.4	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 57.8¢	$499.39	$541.89	+$42.98	48% 1113-1229 (2342)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$511.65	$492.9	-$0.4	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$446.33	$450.96	+$4.63	98% 4191-88 (4279)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 24.2¢	$227.83	$310.19	+$82.36	51% 1567-1482 (3049)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$104.42	$160.04	+$55.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.2¢	$123.41	$150.16	+$26.75
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 78.9¢	$329.56	$302.24	-$27.32	51% 2389-2256 (4645)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 80.3¢	$223.91	$278.86	+$54.95	58% 3913-2854 (6767)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 89.8¢	$215.4	$231.46	+$16.05	52% 955-872 (1827)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$157.81	$160.83	+$3.02	55% 4532-3662 (8194)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$86.79	$115.82	+$29.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.9¢	$71.02	$45.01	-$26.01
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 25.6¢	$136.57	$116.04	-$20.53	58% 5120-3777 (8897)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$61.42	$73.53	+$12.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.6¢	$75.15	$42.51	-$32.64
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 49¢	$102.88	$103.95	+$1.07	51% 2039-1965 (4004)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$47.97	$88.96	+$40.99	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$92.68	$79.83	+$2.16	56% 381-299 (680)
BO bosona	Upavg 78.4¢	$459.98	$77.18	+$34.44	51% 4812-4602 (9414)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 92.8¢	$74.02	$63.74	-$4.6	63% 4381-2627 (7008)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 80.5¢	$60.95	$63.72	+$2.77	67% 3730-1865 (5595)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$60.09	$54.48	-$5.61	49% 903-932 (1835)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$26.77	$27.76	+$0.99	60% 4018-2726 (6744)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 82¢	$26.5	$25.24	-$1.26	48% 2388-2566 (4954)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$17.6	$13.86	-$3.74	64% 1946-1107 (3053)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 78¢	$10.17	$10.65	+$0.48	65% 2632-1442 (4074)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 8.2¢	$28.79	$8.78	-$20.01	51% 1570-1480 (3050)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 81¢	$5.81	$5.87	+$0.06	48% 1421-1515 (2936)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5	$5.05	+$0.05	50% 901-901 (1802)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,770.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$72.76

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$509.3

Value

$611.69

PnL

+$102.4

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$499.39

Value

$541.89

PnL

+$42.98

Record

48%

1113-1229 (2342)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$511.65

Value

$492.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

hoodquant

Invested

$446.33

Value

$450.96

PnL

+$4.63

Record

98%

4191-88 (4279)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$227.83

Value

$310.19

PnL

+$82.36

Record

51%

1567-1482 (3049)

Both legs:

Up$104.4246¢+$55.61

Down$123.4124.2¢+$26.75

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$329.56

Value

$302.24

PnL

-$27.32

Record

51%

2389-2256 (4645)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$223.91

Value

$278.86

PnL

+$54.95

Record

58%

3913-2854 (6767)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$215.4

Value

$231.46

PnL

+$16.05

Record

52%

955-872 (1827)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$157.81

Value

$160.83

PnL

+$3.02

Record

55%

4532-3662 (8194)

Both legs:

Up$86.7964.1¢+$29.03

Down$71.0222.9¢-$26.01

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.57

Value

$116.04

PnL

-$20.53

Record

58%

5120-3777 (8897)

Both legs:

Up$61.4271.4¢+$12.11

Down$75.1525.6¢-$32.64

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$102.88

Value

$103.95

PnL

+$1.07

Record

51%

2039-1965 (4004)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$47.97

Value

$88.96

PnL

+$40.99

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$92.68

Value

$79.83

PnL

+$2.16

Record

56%

381-299 (680)

bosona

Invested

$459.98

Value

$77.18

PnL

+$34.44

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$74.02

Value

$63.74

PnL

-$4.6

Record

63%

4381-2627 (7008)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$60.95

Value

$63.72

PnL

+$2.77

Record

67%

3730-1865 (5595)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$60.09

Value

$54.48

PnL

-$5.61

Record

49%

903-932 (1835)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$26.77

Value

$27.76

PnL

+$0.99

Record

60%

4018-2726 (6744)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

$25.24

PnL

-$1.26

Record

48%

2388-2566 (4954)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.6

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$3.74

Record

64%

1946-1107 (3053)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$10.17

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$0.48

Record

65%

2632-1442 (4074)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.79

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$20.01

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

1421-1515 (2936)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

901-901 (1802)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 27 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.