Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Signal

23 of 33 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,141

Combined PnL+$803.25

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,634

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.9¢	$4.9K	$4.0K	-$938.35	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$24.9	98% 4191-88 (4279)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 37.2¢	$651.95	$1.4K	+$800.54	44% 306-388 (694)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$863	$583.89	-$279.11	58% 3913-2854 (6767)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$351.86	$583.89	+$232.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$511.14	—	-$511.14
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$658.11	$621.56	-$36.55	55% 4532-3662 (8194)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$276.25	$621.56	+$345.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$381.86	—	-$381.86
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 45.7¢	$714.27	—	-$714.27	51% 2389-2256 (4645)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 35.8¢	$743.88	$337.13	-$105.98	51% 1567-1482 (3049)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17¢	$57.31	$337.13	+$368.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$466.37	—	-$474.71
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$551.75	$492.77	+$0.3	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$241.59	$492.77	+$250.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$254.73	—	-$250.5
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 41.1¢	$584.95	—	-$549.8	58% 5120-3777 (8897)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 17.4¢	$68.05	$392.02	+$323.97	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 39.6¢	$645.37	—	-$521.11	51% 4812-4602 (9414)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 94.7¢	$273.37	$257.75	-$15.62	52% 955-872 (1827)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$180.29	$171.93	-$8.36	49% 903-932 (1835)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$55.03	$171.93	+$116.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$125.26	—	-$125.26
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 51.6¢	$82.99	$160.76	+$77.77	44% 2289-2937 (5226)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 57¢	$321.57	—	-$321.57	48% 1113-1229 (2342)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 38.4¢	$117.6	$110	-$7.6	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$56.1	$110	+$53.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$61.5	—	-$61.5
Atomforge	Upavg 49.6¢	$57.9	$116.8	+$58.9	28% 304-782 (1086)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 38.2¢	$973.3	—	-$226.84	51% 1570-1480 (3050)
RL RLWG	Upavg 40.2¢	$61.2	$100	+$38.8	64% 1946-1107 (3053)
PL ply-pm4<$100	Upavg 42.8¢	$64.98	$92.75	+$35.6	34% 220-418 (638)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$48.51	$90.26	+$41.75	70% 1747-744 (2491)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 94.8¢	$106.93	$88	-$17.84	63% 4381-2627 (7008)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$80.3	$55	-$25.3	48% 2388-2566 (4954)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.7¢	$55	—	-$55
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$25.3	$55	+$29.7
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 52.4¢	$169.13	$323	+$153.87	51% 2039-1965 (4004)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 73¢	$69.9	$63.43	-$5.69	67% 3730-1865 (5595)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$4,917.13

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$938.35

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,538.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$24.9

Record

98%

4191-88 (4279)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$651.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$800.54

Record

44%

306-388 (694)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$863

Value

$583.89

PnL

-$279.11

Record

58%

3913-2854 (6767)

Both legs:

Up$351.8660.3¢+$232.03

Down$511.1447.9¢-$511.14

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$658.11

Value

$621.56

PnL

-$36.55

Record

55%

4532-3662 (8194)

Both legs:

Up$276.2544.4¢+$345.31

Down$381.8647.4¢-$381.86

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$714.27

Value

—

PnL

-$714.27

Record

51%

2389-2256 (4645)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$743.88

Value

$337.13

PnL

-$105.98

Record

51%

1567-1482 (3049)

Both legs:

Up$57.3117¢+$368.73

Down$466.3735.8¢-$474.71

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$551.75

Value

$492.77

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Both legs:

Up$241.5949¢+$250.8

Down$254.7350.2¢-$250.5

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$584.95

Value

—

PnL

-$549.8

Record

58%

5120-3777 (8897)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$68.05

Value

$392.02

PnL

+$323.97

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$645.37

Value

—

PnL

-$521.11

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$273.37

Value

$257.75

PnL

-$15.62

Record

52%

955-872 (1827)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180.29

Value

$171.93

PnL

-$8.36

Record

49%

903-932 (1835)

Both legs:

Up$55.0332¢+$116.9

Down$125.2653.8¢-$125.26

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$82.99

Value

$160.76

PnL

+$77.77

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$321.57

Value

—

PnL

-$321.57

Record

48%

1113-1229 (2342)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117.6

Value

$110

PnL

-$7.6

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

Both legs:

Up$56.151¢+$53.9

Down$61.538.4¢-$61.5

Atomforge

Invested

$57.9

Value

$116.8

PnL

+$58.9

Record

28%

304-782 (1086)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$973.3

Value

—

PnL

-$226.84

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

RLWG

Invested

$61.2

Value

$100

PnL

+$38.8

Record

64%

1946-1107 (3053)

ply-pm4<$100

Invested

$64.98

Value

$92.75

PnL

+$35.6

Record

34%

220-418 (638)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$48.51

Value

$90.26

PnL

+$41.75

Record

70%

1747-744 (2491)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$106.93

Value

$88

PnL

-$17.84

Record

63%

4381-2627 (7008)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$80.3

Value

$55

PnL

-$25.3

Record

48%

2388-2566 (4954)

Both legs:

Down$5536.7¢-$55

Up$25.346¢+$29.7

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$169.13

Value

$323

PnL

+$153.87

Record

51%

2039-1965 (4004)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$69.9

Value

$63.43

PnL

-$5.69

Record

67%

3730-1865 (5595)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 33 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfbd7f1e3...790f82

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794728700

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $4.0K

-$938.35

hoodquant

Up — $1.6K

+$24.9

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $1.4K

+$800.54

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $0

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

Hcrystallash

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $392.02

+$323.97

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