Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

19 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$611.58

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 28 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,482

Combined PnL+$508.62

Up9 traders

Total Value$150.63

Total Shares875

Combined PnL+$102.96

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 69.1¢	$429.13	$516.49	+$87.36	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$508.47	$502.72	+$2.47	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$252.5	$275.23	+$23.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$248.5	$227.5	-$21
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 59.7¢	$240.95	$373.43	+$132.48	48% 1107-1223 (2330)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 96.4¢	$255.41	$257.98	+$2.57	52% 2876-2608 (5484)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$204.96	$206.93	+$1.97	98% 4160-87 (4247)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 66.2¢	$244.24	$204.06	+$22.22	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
ST stepahead	Downavg 64.6¢	$126.83	$161.23	+$38	55% 4526-3656 (8182)
LI Little-big	Downavg 51.8¢	$63.16	$121.94	+$58.78	51% 1057-1008 (2065)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 26.7¢	$146.93	$113.09	-$32.12	58% 5114-3771 (8885)
BO bosona	Downavg 98.7¢	$353.87	$101.01	+$92.85	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 89.1¢	$89.33	$99.05	+$9.72	52% 948-867 (1815)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$59.76	$83.63	+$23.88	60% 3996-2713 (6709)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 98¢	$49.5	$50.48	+$0.98	44% 306-387 (693)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$47.7	$47.89	+$0.19	58% 3901-2845 (6746)
MO mo-money	Downavg 98.7¢	$132.86	$47.67	+$24.07	51% 1558-1472 (3030)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$34.85	$46.72	+$11.86	49% 899-931 (1830)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 89.5¢	$35.8	$36.6	+$0.8	56% 375-295 (670)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$26.5	$25.25	-$1.25	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.9¢	$10.56	$13.56	+$3	67% 3707-1852 (5559)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 65¢	$6.5	$5.45	-$1.05	64% 1942-1103 (3045)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.86	$4.91	+$0.05	50% 897-890 (1787)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$3.6	$3.45	-$0.15	52% 5102-4793 (9895)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.25	$2.73	-$0.52	65% 2617-1432 (4049)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.25	$2.73	-$0.52	50% 2651-2645 (5296)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2	$2.13	+$0.13	17% 6-29 (35)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$429.13

Value

$516.49

PnL

+$87.36

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$508.47

Value

$502.72

PnL

+$2.47

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Invested

$240.95

Value

$373.43

PnL

+$132.48

Record

48%

1107-1223 (2330)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$255.41

Value

$257.98

PnL

+$2.57

Record

52%

2876-2608 (5484)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$204.96

Value

$206.93

PnL

+$1.97

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$244.24

Value

$204.06

PnL

+$22.22

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$126.83

Value

$161.23

PnL

+$38

Record

55%

4526-3656 (8182)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$63.16

Value

$121.94

PnL

+$58.78

Record

51%

1057-1008 (2065)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$146.93

Value

$113.09

PnL

-$32.12

Record

58%

5114-3771 (8885)

bosona

Down

Invested

$353.87

Value

$101.01

PnL

+$92.85

Record

51%

4806-4590 (9396)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$89.33

Value

$99.05

PnL

+$9.72

Record

52%

948-867 (1815)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$59.76

Value

$83.63

PnL

+$23.88

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$49.5

Value

$50.48

PnL

+$0.98

Record

44%

306-387 (693)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$47.7

Value

$47.89

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

3901-2845 (6746)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$132.86

Value

$47.67

PnL

+$24.07

Record

51%

1558-1472 (3030)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$34.85

Value

$46.72

PnL

+$11.86

Record

49%

899-931 (1830)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$35.8

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

375-295 (670)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$10.56

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$3

Record

67%

3707-1852 (5559)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$6.5

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$1.05

Record

64%

1942-1103 (3045)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

897-890 (1787)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

5102-4793 (9895)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.52

Record

65%

2617-1432 (4049)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

2651-2645 (5296)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

17%

6-29 (35)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 28 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.