Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 87%
1 arb excluded
$5.0K
$61.16
Smart Money Signal
27 of 31 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.38 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.9¢ | $466.85 | $521.66 | +$55.19 | 48% 1107-1223 (2330) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $532.89 | $500 | +$0.09 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $542.38 | $472.45 | -$69.93 | 50% 3448-3455 (6903) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 69¢ | $648.04 | $447.45 | -$81.69 | 58% 5114-3771 (8885) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.5¢ | $321.42 | $274.61 | -$14.05 | 55% 4526-3656 (8182) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 86.1¢ | $201.2 | $225 | +$23.8 | 52% 948-867 (1815) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 63.7¢ | $208.29 | $185 | +$6.44 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 95¢ | $149.52 | $150 | +$0.48 | 58% 3901-2845 (6746) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 72¢ | $131.83 | $149.13 | +$35.6 | 56% 375-295 (670) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $101.67 | $103 | +$1.33 | 49% 899-931 (1830) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 57.9¢ | $92.82 | $160.22 | +$67.39 | 51% 1057-1008 (2065) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $30.15 | $65 | +$34.85 | 47% 2283-2527 (4810) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 53.4¢ | $63.5 | $119 | +$55.5 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $62.22 | $62.32 | +$4.12 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $38.18 | $57 | +$18.82 | 51% 1558-1472 (3030) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30¢ | $17.09 | $57 | +$39.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $21.09 | — | -$21.09 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $39.46 | $40 | +$0.54 | 50% 2651-2645 (5296) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $37.5 | $72.08 | +$34.58 | 48% 198-216 (414) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $16.75 | $25 | +$8.25 | 44% 2281-2921 (5202) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $15.03 | $22 | +$6.97 | 48% 2372-2557 (4929) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $16.21 | $30.79 | +$14.58 | 60% 3996-2713 (6709) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $14.75 | $25 | +$10.25 | 48% 2388-2630 (5018) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $31.45 | $20 | +$12.55 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $6.99 | — | -$6.99 | 51% 4806-4590 (9396) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $9.34 | — | -$9.34 | 46% 3106-3639 (6745) |
Invested
$1,176.62
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.38
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
Invested
$466.85
Value
$521.66
PnL
+$55.19
Record
48%
1107-1223 (2330)
Invested
$532.89
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$542.38
Value
$472.45
PnL
-$69.93
Record
50%
3448-3455 (6903)
Invested
$648.04
Value
$447.45
PnL
-$81.69
Record
58%
5114-3771 (8885)
Invested
$321.42
Value
$274.61
PnL
-$14.05
Record
55%
4526-3656 (8182)
Invested
$201.2
Value
$225
PnL
+$23.8
Record
52%
948-867 (1815)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$208.29
Value
$185
PnL
+$6.44
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$149.52
Value
$150
PnL
+$0.48
Record
58%
3901-2845 (6746)
Invested
$131.83
Value
$149.13
PnL
+$35.6
Record
56%
375-295 (670)
Invested
$101.67
Value
$103
PnL
+$1.33
Record
49%
899-931 (1830)
Invested
$92.82
Value
$160.22
PnL
+$67.39
Record
51%
1057-1008 (2065)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30.15
Value
$65
PnL
+$34.85
Record
47%
2283-2527 (4810)
Invested
$63.5
Value
$119
PnL
+$55.5
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
Invested
$62.22
Value
$62.32
PnL
+$4.12
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
Invested
$38.18
Value
$57
PnL
+$18.82
Record
51%
1558-1472 (3030)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.46
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.54
Record
50%
2651-2645 (5296)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
$72.08
PnL
+$34.58
Record
48%
198-216 (414)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$8.25
Record
44%
2281-2921 (5202)
Invested
$15.03
Value
$22
PnL
+$6.97
Record
48%
2372-2557 (4929)
Invested
$16.21
Value
$30.79
PnL
+$14.58
Record
60%
3996-2713 (6709)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$10.25
Record
48%
2388-2630 (5018)
Invested
$31.45
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.55
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
Invested
$6.99
Value
—
PnL
-$6.99
Record
51%
4806-4590 (9396)
Invested
$9.34
Value
—
PnL
-$9.34
Record
46%
3106-3639 (6745)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $521.66
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $472.45
Hcrystallash
Down — $447.45
stepahead
Down — $274.61
EZTRADENL2
Down — $225
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $185
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $150
Alpharo28
Down — $149.13