Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$299.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 38 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,193

Combined PnL+$599.86

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,307

Combined PnL-$300.18

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$99.51	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71.7¢	$864.97	$981.5	+$116.53	48% 1107-1223 (2330)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 91.1¢	$728.67	$799.77	+$71.1	44% 306-387 (693)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$678.08	$684.93	+$6.85	98% 4160-87 (4247)
ST stepahead	Downavg 74.1¢	$478.96	$536.59	+$57.62	55% 4526-3656 (8182)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 70.9¢	$497.28	$497.06	+$5.24	58% 5114-3771 (8885)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$517.35	$490	-$2.02	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$247.88	$490	+$247.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$248.57	—	-$249.42
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 90.4¢	$374.5	$414.32	+$39.82	37% 79-135 (214)
NIULAI4	Downavg 90¢	$367.96	$409	+$41.04	29% 536-1306 (1842)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69.5¢	$340.18	$264.47	+$18.7	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 87.4¢	$216.15	$235.73	+$19.58	52% 948-867 (1815)
LI Little-big	Downavg 56.7¢	$113.4	$200	+$86.6	51% 1057-1008 (2065)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 80.9¢	$159.87	$155.99	-$3.87	52% 2876-2608 (5484)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.9¢	$126.24	$155.99	+$29.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.8¢	$33.62	—	-$33.62
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 69.3¢	$112.49	$149.25	+$36.76	56% 375-295 (670)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 79.5¢	$212.23	$120	+$31.4	58% 3901-2845 (6746)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 22.9¢	$102.59	—	-$102.59	52% 1562-1470 (3032)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 23¢	$213.74	$67.33	-$88.01	51% 1558-1472 (3030)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92¢	$61.94	$67.33	+$6.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 23¢	$105.8	—	-$95
Atomforge	Downavg 89.5¢	$93.1	$104.03	+$10.93	28% 299-782 (1081)
AA aaa221	Downavg 64.8¢	$144.98	$223.64	+$78.66	60% 3996-2713 (6709)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$50.78	$60.35	+$9.57	49% 899-931 (1830)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$35.55	$45.96	+$10.41	58% 145-104 (249)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 16.9¢	$55.03	—	-$55.03	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 87.4¢	$39.14	$41	+$1.86	48% 2388-2630 (5018)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$21.75	$29.37	+$7.62	67% 3707-1852 (5559)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$30.69	$20	+$15.41	62% 4354-2613 (6967)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,364.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$99.51

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$864.97

Value

$981.5

PnL

+$116.53

Record

48%

1107-1223 (2330)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$728.67

Value

$799.77

PnL

+$71.1

Record

44%

306-387 (693)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$678.08

Value

$684.93

PnL

+$6.85

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$478.96

Value

$536.59

PnL

+$57.62

Record

55%

4526-3656 (8182)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$497.28

Value

$497.06

PnL

+$5.24

Record

58%

5114-3771 (8885)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$517.35

Value

$490

PnL

-$2.02

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Down$247.8850.6¢+$247.4

Up$248.5748.7¢-$249.42

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$374.5

Value

$414.32

PnL

+$39.82

Record

37%

79-135 (214)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$367.96

Value

$409

PnL

+$41.04

Record

29%

536-1306 (1842)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$340.18

Value

$264.47

PnL

+$18.7

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$216.15

Value

$235.73

PnL

+$19.58

Record

52%

948-867 (1815)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$113.4

Value

$200

PnL

+$86.6

Record

51%

1057-1008 (2065)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$159.87

Value

$155.99

PnL

-$3.87

Record

52%

2876-2608 (5484)

Both legs:

Down$126.2480.9¢+$29.75

Up$33.6233.8¢-$33.62

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$112.49

Value

$149.25

PnL

+$36.76

Record

56%

375-295 (670)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$212.23

Value

$120

PnL

+$31.4

Record

58%

3901-2845 (6746)

almachCTR

Invested

$102.59

Value

—

PnL

-$102.59

Record

52%

1562-1470 (3032)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$213.74

Value

$67.33

PnL

-$88.01

Record

51%

1558-1472 (3030)

Both legs:

Invested

$93.1

Value

$104.03

PnL

+$10.93

Record

28%

299-782 (1081)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$144.98

Value

$223.64

PnL

+$78.66

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$50.78

Value

$60.35

PnL

+$9.57

Record

49%

899-931 (1830)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Down

Invested

$35.55

Value

$45.96

PnL

+$10.41

Record

58%

145-104 (249)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$55.03

Value

—

PnL

-$55.03

Record

51%

4806-4590 (9396)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$39.14

Value

$41

PnL

+$1.86

Record

48%

2388-2630 (5018)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$21.75

Value

$29.37

PnL

+$7.62

Record

67%

3707-1852 (5559)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$30.69

Value

$20

PnL

+$15.41

Record

62%

4354-2613 (6967)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 38 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfa89bbfd...9447cc

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794726000

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.3K

-$99.51

CrouchPredictions

Down — $981.5

+$116.53

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $799.77

+$71.1

hoodquant

Down — $684.93

+$6.85

stepahead

Down — $536.59

+$57.62

Hcrystallash

Down — $497.06

+$5.24

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.02

asabovesobelow2

Down — $414.32

+$39.82

NIULAI4

Down — $409

+$41.04

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $264.47

+$18.7

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