Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$76.11

Smart Money Signal

21 of 26 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,009

Combined PnL+$204.05

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,027

Combined PnL-$280.16

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.06	98% 4120-86 (4206)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 72.1¢	$673.32	$907.15	+$233.83	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
BO bosona	Upavg 88¢	$905.46	$854.5	-$50.97	51% 4792-4578 (9370)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 85.6¢	$898.39	$799.48	-$98.21	48% 1102-1211 (2313)
AL almach	Upavg 91.7¢	$925.01	$588.23	-$16.86	52% 1551-1455 (3006)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 86.6¢	$541.05	$551.82	+$10.78	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$504.3	$490	-$8.6	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$245.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$254.3	—	-$254.3
MO mo-money	Upavg 90.5¢	$930.68	$500	-$11.08	51% 1543-1462 (3005)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 82.2¢	$328.9	$312.61	+$38.49	58% 3890-2826 (6716)
ST stepahead	Upavg 77.5¢	$228.82	$208.23	-$20.59	55% 4512-3652 (8164)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 88.4¢	$178.61	$194.2	+$15.59	52% 938-859 (1797)
AA aaa221	Upavg 70.2¢	$169.8	$227.02	+$65.58	60% 3969-2697 (6666)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 84.1¢	$111.29	$105	-$6.28	49% 896-928 (1824)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 88.3¢	$110.13	$94.17	-$10.57	56% 364-289 (653)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 85.2¢	$78.34	$92	+$13.66	52% 2858-2596 (5454)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 83.3¢	$20.25	$22.19	+$1.94	67% 3669-1840 (5509)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 72¢	$14.4	$20	+$5.6	62% 4316-2591 (6907)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$14.53	—	-$14.53	52% 2216-2019 (4235)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 52¢	$15.2	$29.23	+$14.03	50% 893-886 (1779)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$11.45	$10	-$1.45	64% 1941-1099 (3040)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 33.7¢	$120.08	—	-$112.8	58% 5103-3764 (8867)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 62¢	$4.73	$7.63	+$2.9	47% 2362-2616 (4978)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 94¢	$5.95	$5.05	-$0.9	65% 2592-1424 (4016)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$4	—	-$4	51% 2012-1937 (3949)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 44¢	$2.76	$6.28	+$3.52	38% 726-1178 (1904)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,458.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.06

Record

98%

4120-86 (4206)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$673.32

Value

$907.15

PnL

+$233.83

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

bosona

Invested

$905.46

Value

$854.5

PnL

-$50.97

Record

51%

4792-4578 (9370)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$898.39

Value

$799.48

PnL

-$98.21

Record

48%

1102-1211 (2313)

almach

Invested

$925.01

Value

$588.23

PnL

-$16.86

Record

52%

1551-1455 (3006)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$541.05

Value

$551.82

PnL

+$10.78

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$504.3

Value

$490

PnL

-$8.6

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$245.7

Down$254.349.9¢-$254.3

mo-money

Invested

$930.68

Value

$500

PnL

-$11.08

Record

51%

1543-1462 (3005)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$328.9

Value

$312.61

PnL

+$38.49

Record

58%

3890-2826 (6716)

stepahead

Invested

$228.82

Value

$208.23

PnL

-$20.59

Record

55%

4512-3652 (8164)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$178.61

Value

$194.2

PnL

+$15.59

Record

52%

938-859 (1797)

aaa221

Invested

$169.8

Value

$227.02

PnL

+$65.58

Record

60%

3969-2697 (6666)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$111.29

Value

$105

PnL

-$6.28

Record

49%

896-928 (1824)

Alpharo28

Invested

$110.13

Value

$94.17

PnL

-$10.57

Record

56%

364-289 (653)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$78.34

Value

$92

PnL

+$13.66

Record

52%

2858-2596 (5454)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$22.19

PnL

+$1.94

Record

67%

3669-1840 (5509)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$20

PnL

+$5.6

Record

62%

4316-2591 (6907)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.53

Value

—

PnL

-$14.53

Record

52%

2216-2019 (4235)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$29.23

PnL

+$14.03

Record

50%

893-886 (1779)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$11.45

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.45

Record

64%

1941-1099 (3040)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$120.08

Value

—

PnL

-$112.8

Record

58%

5103-3764 (8867)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$2.9

Record

47%

2362-2616 (4978)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.9

Record

65%

2592-1424 (4016)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$4

Record

51%

2012-1937 (3949)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$3.52

Record

38%

726-1178 (1904)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 26 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3e84f214...dc1e66

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794723300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.5K

+$15.06

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $907.15

+$233.83

bosona

Up — $854.5

-$50.97

CrouchPredictions

Up — $799.48

-$98.21

almach

Up — $588.23

-$16.86

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $551.82

+$10.78

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.6

mo-money

Up — $500

-$11.08

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $312.61

+$38.49

stepahead

Up — $208.23

-$20.59

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