Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares6,030

Combined PnL+$774.31

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares824

Combined PnL+$547.19

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 89¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$179.66	43% 1894-2540 (4434)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.91	98% 4120-86 (4206)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 76.1¢	$966.62	$1.1K	+$83.5	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 60.5¢	$387.19	$573	+$190.31	58% 5103-3764 (8867)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$506.93	$490.01	+$6.46	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$247.04	—	-$247.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245.01	$490.01	+$253.5
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 59.8¢	$221.06	$369.56	+$148.5	48% 1102-1211 (2313)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 92.1¢	$308.93	$325	+$16.07	52% 938-859 (1797)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$193.64	$224.39	+$30.75	55% 4512-3652 (8164)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.6¢	$54.68	—	-$54.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.9¢	$138.96	$224.39	+$85.43
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 71.5¢	$437.29	$229.61	+$29.64	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 1¢	$352.37	—	+$270	51% 1543-1462 (3005)
LI Little-big	Downavg 51.7¢	$66.15	$128	+$61.85	51% 1052-1004 (2056)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 5.2¢	$169.23	—	+$100.4	52% 1551-1455 (3006)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$99.86	$50	-$49.86	51% 2012-1937 (3949)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$69.86	—	-$69.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$30	$50	+$20
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 1.4¢	$342.38	—	+$235.3	51% 4792-4578 (9370)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$70.57	$93.27	+$22.71	49% 896-928 (1824)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.6¢	$61.22	$93.27	+$32.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.1¢	$9.34	—	-$9.34
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 77.2¢	$86.63	$112.21	+$25.58	56% 364-289 (653)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 99¢	$75.25	$50	-$25.01	44% 305-387 (692)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 81¢	$70.89	$87.48	+$16.59	52% 2858-2596 (5454)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 62¢	$32.45	$44.01	+$11.56	60% 3969-2697 (6666)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$26.45	$28.35	+$2.5	67% 3669-1840 (5509)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$21.99	—	-$21.99	58% 3890-2826 (6716)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$56.18	$23.26	+$5.65	62% 4316-2591 (6907)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$4.5	—	-$4.5	52% 5094-4784 (9878)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$10.45	—	-$10.45	47% 2261-2512 (4773)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2	—	-$2	17% 6-29 (35)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$1,446.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$179.66

Record

43%

1894-2540 (4434)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,329.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.91

Record

98%

4120-86 (4206)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$966.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$83.5

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$387.19

Value

$573

PnL

+$190.31

Record

58%

5103-3764 (8867)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.93

Value

$490.01

PnL

+$6.46

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Both legs:

Up$247.0449¢-$247.04

Down$245.0150¢+$253.5

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$221.06

Value

$369.56

PnL

+$148.5

Record

48%

1102-1211 (2313)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$308.93

Value

$325

PnL

+$16.07

Record

52%

938-859 (1797)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.64

Value

$224.39

PnL

+$30.75

Record

55%

4512-3652 (8164)

Both legs:

Up$54.6816.6¢-$54.68

Down$138.9661.9¢+$85.43

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$437.29

Value

$229.61

PnL

+$29.64

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$352.37

Value

—

PnL

+$270

Record

51%

1543-1462 (3005)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$66.15

Value

$128

PnL

+$61.85

Record

51%

1052-1004 (2056)

almachCTR

Invested

$169.23

Value

—

PnL

+$100.4

Record

52%

1551-1455 (3006)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$99.86

Value

$50

PnL

-$49.86

Record

51%

2012-1937 (3949)

Both legs:

Up$69.8651¢-$69.86

Down$3060¢+$20

bosonaCTR

Invested

$342.38

Value

—

PnL

+$235.3

Record

51%

4792-4578 (9370)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.57

Value

$93.27

PnL

+$22.71

Record

49%

896-928 (1824)

Both legs:

Down$61.2265.6¢+$32.05

Up$9.3413.1¢-$9.34

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$86.63

Value

$112.21

PnL

+$25.58

Record

56%

364-289 (653)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$75.25

Value

$50

PnL

-$25.01

Record

44%

305-387 (692)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$70.89

Value

$87.48

PnL

+$16.59

Record

52%

2858-2596 (5454)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$32.45

Value

$44.01

PnL

+$11.56

Record

60%

3969-2697 (6666)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$26.45

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$2.5

Record

67%

3669-1840 (5509)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$21.99

Value

—

PnL

-$21.99

Record

58%

3890-2826 (6716)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$56.18

Value

$23.26

PnL

+$5.65

Record

62%

4316-2591 (6907)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

52%

5094-4784 (9878)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

—

PnL

-$10.45

Record

47%

2261-2512 (4773)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$2

Record

17%

6-29 (35)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 28 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5ee1c1e2...5217a0

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794722400

Traders in this Market

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $1.6K

+$179.66

hoodquant

Down — $1.3K

+$13.91

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.1K

+$83.5

Hcrystallash

Down — $573

+$190.31

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$6.46

CrouchPredictions

Down — $369.56

+$148.5

EZTRADENL2

Down — $325

+$16.07

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$30.75

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $229.61

mo-money

Up — $0