Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 34%
2 arb excluded
$4.1K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 30 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.96 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 47.1¢ | $655.98 | $865.05 | +$214.14 | 58% 5095-3753 (8848) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 82.1¢ | $678.66 | $826.91 | +$148.25 | 58% 3865-2801 (6666) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.5 | $490 | -$8.9 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $254.5 | — | -$254.5 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 20.4¢ | $751.11 | — | -$725.33 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 17¢ | $267.95 | — | -$267.95 | 64% 1941-1097 (3038) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $322.68 | $124.87 | -$197.81 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.4¢ | $47.98 | $124.87 | +$76.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.3¢ | $274.7 | — | -$274.7 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 16.3¢ | $195.81 | — | -$195.81 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144 | Downavg 85¢ | $166.81 | $168 | +$20.51 | 58% 140-103 (243) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 19.3¢ | $589 | — | -$42.1 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
 ohioism | Downavg 22¢ | $46.75 | $150 | +$103.25 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 31.8¢ | $169.61 | — | -$169.61 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 94¢ | $149.89 | $130 | -$19.89 | 52% 928-854 (1782) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 15.3¢ | $133.6 | — | -$133.6 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.8¢ | $104.98 | $89.05 | -$15.93 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Upavg 28.5¢ | $55.23 | — | -$55.23 | 49% 892-926 (1818) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $29.82 | $40.26 | +$10.44 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.9¢ | $33.12 | — | -$19.2 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 72.2¢ | $42.54 | — | -$42.54 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.5¢ | $52.13 | — | -$26.23 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $19.65 | — | -$19.65 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 66.6¢ | $10.12 | $10.06 | -$0.06 | 65% 2580-1409 (3989) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $7.68 | — | -$7.68 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $39.8 | — | -$39.8 | 56% 359-279 (638) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $3.5 | $10 | +$6.5 | 52% 2844-2584 (5428) |
Invested
$1,195.04
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.96
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$655.98
Value
$865.05
PnL
+$214.14
Record
58%
5095-3753 (8848)
Invested
$678.66
Value
$826.91
PnL
+$148.25
Record
58%
3865-2801 (6666)
Invested
$504.5
Value
$490
PnL
-$8.9
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Both legs:
Invested
$751.11
Value
—
PnL
-$725.33
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$267.95
Value
—
PnL
-$267.95
Record
64%
1941-1097 (3038)
Invested
$322.68
Value
$124.87
PnL
-$197.81
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Both legs:
Invested
$195.81
Value
—
PnL
-$195.81
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$166.81
Value
$168
PnL
+$20.51
Record
58%
140-103 (243)
Invested
$589
Value
—
PnL
-$42.1
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
ohioismInvested
$46.75
Value
$150
PnL
+$103.25
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$169.61
Value
—
PnL
-$169.61
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Invested
$149.89
Value
$130
PnL
-$19.89
Record
52%
928-854 (1782)
Invested
$133.6
Value
—
PnL
-$133.6
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$104.98
Value
$89.05
PnL
-$15.93
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$55.23
Value
—
PnL
-$55.23
Record
49%
892-926 (1818)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$40.26
PnL
+$10.44
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
Invested
$33.12
Value
—
PnL
-$19.2
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
Invested
$42.54
Value
—
PnL
-$42.54
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Invested
$52.13
Value
—
PnL
-$26.23
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
Invested
$19.65
Value
—
PnL
-$19.65
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$10.06
PnL
-$0.06
Record
65%
2580-1409 (3989)
Invested
$7.68
Value
—
PnL
-$7.68
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
Invested
$39.8
Value
—
PnL
-$39.8
Record
56%
359-279 (638)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.5
Record
52%
2844-2584 (5428)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
Hcrystallash
Down — $865.05
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $826.91
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
RLWG
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144
Down — $168
bosona
CTRUp — $0