Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$453.5

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,346

Combined PnL+$503.82

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares238

Combined PnL-$50.32

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 92.3¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$145.4	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
└ Down leg	Downavg 3.8¢	$209.28	—	-$209.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.3¢	$4.2K	$4.6K	+$354.69
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 90¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$182.55	43% 1879-2519 (4398)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$17.04	98% 4086-84 (4170)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$511.6	$497.9	-$3.05	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$248.17	—	-$251.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$252.44	$497.9	+$248.55
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$436.48	$435.41	+$13.38	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.5¢	$380.8	$435.41	+$56.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 10¢	$42.92	—	-$42.92
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 86.7¢	$523.48	$535.66	+$12.18	48% 1094-1204 (2298)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.7¢	$464.41	$535.66	+$71.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$59.07	—	-$59.07
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$862.97	$405.81	+$136.43	51% 4780-4566 (9346)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.5¢	$346.97	$405.81	-$152.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 0.9¢	$2.63	—	+$288.53
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$361.8	$378	+$16.2	55% 4505-3644 (8149)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.1¢	$325.44	$378	+$52.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 12¢	$36.36	—	-$36.36
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 88.4¢	$189.05	$210	+$20.95	52% 928-854 (1782)
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$3.5	—	-$3.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.4¢	$185.55	$210	+$24.45
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 87.2¢	$182.79	$180	-$2.79	49% 892-926 (1818)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.2¢	$157	$180	+$23
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.1¢	$25.79	—	-$25.79
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 60.5¢	$158.26	$250.65	+$92.38	58% 5095-3753 (8848)
MO mo-money	Upavg 87.6¢	$1.2K	$189.36	+$72.02	51% 1530-1451 (2981)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 83.3¢	$71.53	$74.55	+$3.72	67% 3650-1820 (5470)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 88.1¢	$76.82	$67.98	-$1.23	60% 3949-2687 (6636)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$61	$80	+$19	56% 359-279 (638)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 85¢	$51	$60	+$9	48% 2338-2522 (4860)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 86¢	$51.6	$60	+$8.4	44% 2246-2882 (5128)
AL almach	Upavg 97.6¢	$1.1K	$54.69	+$70.59	52% 1539-1442 (2981)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$42.35	$50	+$7.65	47% 2348-2603 (4951)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 13.2¢	$5.95	—	-$5.95	64% 1941-1097 (3038)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 91.8¢	$18.4	$20.04	+$1.64	50% 2598-2611 (5209)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 77¢	$17.62	$20.19	+$2.57	65% 2580-1409 (3989)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$16.95	$33.89	+$16.95	51% 1998-1928 (3926)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 85¢	$14.86	$15	+$0.14	52% 2844-2584 (5428)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$2.25	—	-$2.25	58% 3865-2801 (6666)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$4,432.2

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$145.4

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

Both legs:

Down$209.283.8¢-$209.28

Up$4,222.9192.3¢+$354.69

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,636.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$182.55

Record

43%

1879-2519 (4398)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,523.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$17.04

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$511.6

Value

$497.9

PnL

-$3.05

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Both legs:

Down$248.1748.7¢-$251.6

Up$252.4450.7¢+$248.55

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$436.48

Value

$435.41

PnL

+$13.38

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

Both legs:

Up$380.887.5¢+$56.3

Down$42.9210¢-$42.92

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$523.48

Value

$535.66

PnL

+$12.18

Record

48%

1094-1204 (2298)

Both legs:

Up$464.4186.7¢+$71.25

Down$59.0734.2¢-$59.07

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$862.97

Value

$405.81

PnL

+$136.43

Record

51%

4780-4566 (9346)

Both legs:

Up$346.9785.5¢-$152.1

Down$2.630.9¢+$288.53

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$361.8

Value

$378

PnL

+$16.2

Record

55%

4505-3644 (8149)

Both legs:

Up$325.4486.1¢+$52.56

Down$36.3612¢-$36.36

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$189.05

Value

$210

PnL

+$20.95

Record

52%

928-854 (1782)

Both legs:

Down$3.51¢-$3.5

Up$185.5588.4¢+$24.45

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$182.79

Value

$180

PnL

-$2.79

Record

49%

892-926 (1818)

Both legs:

Up$15787.2¢+$23

Down$25.7915.1¢-$25.79

Hcrystallash

Invested

$158.26

Value

$250.65

PnL

+$92.38

Record

58%

5095-3753 (8848)

mo-money

Invested

$1,164.93

Value

$189.36

PnL

+$72.02

Record

51%

1530-1451 (2981)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$71.53

Value

$74.55

PnL

+$3.72

Record

67%

3650-1820 (5470)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$76.82

Value

$67.98

PnL

-$1.23

Record

60%

3949-2687 (6636)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$61

Value

$80

PnL

+$19

Record

56%

359-279 (638)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$60

PnL

+$9

Record

48%

2338-2522 (4860)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$51.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$8.4

Record

44%

2246-2882 (5128)

almach

Invested

$1,080.42

Value

$54.69

PnL

+$70.59

Record

52%

1539-1442 (2981)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$42.35

Value

$50

PnL

+$7.65

Record

47%

2348-2603 (4951)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.95

Value

—

PnL

-$5.95

Record

64%

1941-1097 (3038)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$20.04

PnL

+$1.64

Record

50%

2598-2611 (5209)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$17.62

Value

$20.19

PnL

+$2.57

Record

65%

2580-1409 (3989)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$16.95

Value

$33.89

PnL

+$16.95

Record

51%

1998-1928 (3926)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$14.86

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

2844-2584 (5428)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

—

PnL

-$2.25

Record

58%

3865-2801 (6666)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 23 top traders (70%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x18a2cce2...4ab048

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794717900

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$145.4

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.8K

+$182.55

hoodquant

Up — $1.5K

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded