Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

23 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Down (85%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$196.36

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 27 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,934

Combined PnL-$154.03

Up4 traders

Total Value$8.27

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$42.33

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.06	98% 4049-84 (4133)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 73.7¢	$1.2K	$934.44	-$224.02	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 83.3¢	$898.98	$844.06	-$53.92	48% 1087-1196 (2283)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$508.56	$504.01	+$6.8	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$251.43	$318.76	+$67.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.2	$185.25	-$60.65
BO bosona	Downavg 79¢	$408.9	$500	+$91.1	51% 4768-4559 (9327)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 61¢	$441.65	$436.45	-$5.2	58% 5086-3744 (8830)
AL almach	Downavg 78¢	$390	$402.5	+$12.5	52% 1527-1435 (2962)
MO mo-money	Downavg 78¢	$390	$402.5	+$12.5	51% 1517-1445 (2962)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 89.4¢	$223.73	$235.27	+$11.54	52% 920-847 (1767)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 58.9¢	$140.93	$131.14	-$1.42	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
ST stepahead	Downavg 71¢	$114.59	$103.5	-$11.09	55% 4495-3639 (8134)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$75.39	$92.97	+$17.58	60% 3927-2670 (6597)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 78¢	$65.99	$60	-$6	49% 890-922 (1812)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$63.58	$59.2	-$1.38	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 74¢	$69.61	$58.33	-$3.3	57% 352-271 (623)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 48¢	$29.18	$36.88	+$7.7	48% 2317-2509 (4826)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 78.7¢	$27.89	$26.01	-$1.88	50% 2579-2590 (5169)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 76¢	$11.25	$11.91	+$0.66	49% 1381-1459 (2840)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$12.9	$11.44	-$1.46	65% 2569-1402 (3971)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	50% 881-876 (1757)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 88¢	$8.24	$7.61	-$0.64	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$36.82	$5.77	-$3.42	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Downavg 51¢	$7.8	$5.74	-$2.06	57% 138-103 (241)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$3.18	$3.75	+$0.57	43% 1865-2503 (4368)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 30.1¢	$14.23	$3.08	-$11.15	47% 2226-2478 (4704)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,313.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.06

Record

98%

4049-84 (4133)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,158.46

Value

$934.44

PnL

-$224.02

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$898.98

Value

$844.06

PnL

-$53.92

Record

48%

1087-1196 (2283)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.56

Value

$504.01

PnL

+$6.8

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Up$251.4349.3¢+$67.45

Down$247.250¢-$60.65

bosona

Down

Invested

$408.9

Value

$500

PnL

+$91.1

Record

51%

4768-4559 (9327)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$441.65

Value

$436.45

PnL

-$5.2

Record

58%

5086-3744 (8830)

almach

Down

Invested

$390

Value

$402.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

52%

1527-1435 (2962)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$390

Value

$402.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

51%

1517-1445 (2962)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$223.73

Value

$235.27

PnL

+$11.54

Record

52%

920-847 (1767)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$140.93

Value

$131.14

PnL

-$1.42

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$114.59

Value

$103.5

PnL

-$11.09

Record

55%

4495-3639 (8134)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$75.39

Value

$92.97

PnL

+$17.58

Record

60%

3927-2670 (6597)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$65.99

Value

$60

PnL

-$6

Record

49%

890-922 (1812)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$63.58

Value

$59.2

PnL

-$1.38

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$69.61

Value

$58.33

PnL

-$3.3

Record

57%

352-271 (623)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$29.18

Value

$36.88

PnL

+$7.7

Record

48%

2317-2509 (4826)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$27.89

Value

$26.01

PnL

-$1.88

Record

50%

2579-2590 (5169)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.91

PnL

+$0.66

Record

49%

1381-1459 (2840)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$12.9

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$1.46

Record

65%

2569-1402 (3971)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

881-876 (1757)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$8.24

Value

$7.61

PnL

-$0.64

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$36.82

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$3.42

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Down

Invested

$7.8

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$2.06

Record

57%

138-103 (241)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.57

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$14.23

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$11.15

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 27 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.