Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Signal

23 of 33 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,894

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Up23 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,607

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down — 30%Up — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 21.1¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$16.11	98% 4049-84 (4133)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 43¢	$952.51	—	-$952.51	48% 1087-1196 (2283)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 44.4¢	$648.59	—	-$648.59	58% 5086-3744 (8830)
BO bosona	Upavg 7.2¢	$41.33	$522.05	+$480.72	51% 4768-4559 (9327)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$520.69	$493	+$3.53	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$245.35	—	-$242.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$245.83	$493	+$246.13
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 93.9¢	$382	$406.99	+$24.99	44% 302-386 (688)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 67.9¢	$447.46	$399	-$48.46	52% 920-847 (1767)
ST stepahead	Upavg 37.1¢	$260.46	$351.27	+$90.82	55% 4495-3639 (8134)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 68.9¢	$187.2	$271.76	+$84.56	48% 2317-2509 (4826)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 76.8¢	$181.36	$236	+$54.64	51% 1980-1923 (3903)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 54.2¢	$170.3	$226	+$55.7	44% 2227-2869 (5096)
NIULAI4	Upavg 88.4¢	$167.02	$189	+$21.98	29% 518-1293 (1811)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 35.2¢	$119.6	$113.64	-$5.97	51% 1517-1445 (2962)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.2¢	$105.97	—	-$105.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 12¢	$13.64	$113.64	+$100
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 88.4¢	$155.25	$175.61	+$20.36	36% 76-134 (210)
ohioism	Upavg 49.8¢	$81.1	$162.84	+$81.74	47% 2226-2478 (4704)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 44.7¢	$161.75	—	-$114.71	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 35.9¢	$82.57	$131.24	+$48.67	49% 890-922 (1812)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.9¢	$47.05	$131.24	+$84.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$35.52	—	-$35.52
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$105.69	$111.9	+$6.21	52% 5083-4768 (9851)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$78.69	$111.9	+$33.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$27	—	-$27
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$94.5	$90.48	-$2.41	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$38.85	—	-$38.85	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Downavg 80.1¢	$96.1	—	-$96.1	57% 352-271 (623)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 81¢	$47.1	$53.68	+$6.58	70% 1711-719 (2430)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$50.35	$50.4	+$0.05	52% 1462-1344 (2806)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 85.6¢	$39.2	$45.82	+$6.62	27% 294-782 (1076)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$1,073.7

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,156.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.11

Record

98%

4049-84 (4133)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$952.51

Value

—

PnL

-$952.51

Record

48%

1087-1196 (2283)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$648.59

Value

—

PnL

-$648.59

Record

58%

5086-3744 (8830)

bosona

Invested

$41.33

Value

$522.05

PnL

+$480.72

Record

51%

4768-4559 (9327)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$520.69

Value

$493

PnL

+$3.53

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Down$245.3549.8¢-$242.6

Up$245.8349.9¢+$246.13

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$382

Value

$406.99

PnL

+$24.99

Record

44%

302-386 (688)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$447.46

Value

$399

PnL

-$48.46

Record

52%

920-847 (1767)

stepahead

Invested

$260.46

Value

$351.27

PnL

+$90.82

Record

55%

4495-3639 (8134)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$187.2

Value

$271.76

PnL

+$84.56

Record

48%

2317-2509 (4826)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$181.36

Value

$236

PnL

+$54.64

Record

51%

1980-1923 (3903)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$170.3

Value

$226

PnL

+$55.7

Record

44%

2227-2869 (5096)

NIULAI4

Invested

$167.02

Value

$189

PnL

+$21.98

Record

29%

518-1293 (1811)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.6

Value

$113.64

PnL

-$5.97

Record

51%

1517-1445 (2962)

Both legs:

Down$105.9735.2¢-$105.97

Up$13.6412¢+$100

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$155.25

Value

$175.61

PnL

+$20.36

Record

36%

76-134 (210)

ohioism

Invested

$81.1

Value

$162.84

PnL

+$81.74

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$161.75

Value

—

PnL

-$114.71

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$82.57

Value

$131.24

PnL

+$48.67

Record

49%

890-922 (1812)

Both legs:

Up$47.0535.9¢+$84.19

Down$35.5244.4¢-$35.52

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$105.69

Value

$111.9

PnL

+$6.21

Record

52%

5083-4768 (9851)

Both legs:

Up$78.6970.3¢+$33.21

Down$2733.8¢-$27

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$94.5

Value

$90.48

PnL

-$2.41

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.85

Value

—

PnL

-$38.85

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$96.1

Value

—

PnL

-$96.1

Record

57%

352-271 (623)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$47.1

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$6.58

Record

70%

1711-719 (2430)

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$50.35

Value

$50.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

1462-1344 (2806)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$39.2

Value

$45.82

PnL

+$6.62

Record

27%

294-782 (1076)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 33 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x06ac275a...fbbb1e

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794715200

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.1K

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

Hcrystallash

Down — $0

bosona

Up — $522.05

+$480.72

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$3.53

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $406.99

+$24.99

EZTRADENL2

Up — $399

-$48.46

stepahead

Up — $351.27

+$90.82

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $271.76

+$84.56

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