Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (52%) · Up at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up70¢Down30¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 52%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$14.93

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 69.5¢

+46% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up70%

Down31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$257.83

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$26.51

Up11 traders

Total Value$172.88

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$11.57

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$515.6	$500.57	+$4.05	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$249.22	$331.59	+$85.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$250.69	$168.97	-$81.3
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 35.9¢	$314.83	$436.18	+$121.35	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.9¢	$193.22	$279.75	+$86.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$121.61	$156.43	+$34.82
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$384.8	$349.27	-$32.68	47% 1074-1189 (2263)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$246.06	$230.92	-$15.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$135.67	$118.35	-$17.32
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$257.43	$347.78	+$103.07	58% 5072-3729 (8801)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$143.13	$238.92	+$100.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$106.04	$108.86	+$2.82
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$240.93	$190.54	-$48.59	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.3¢	$160.57	$103.6	-$60.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.1¢	$74.63	$86.94	+$12.31
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 59.9¢	$150.44	$117.87	-$32.58	55% 4483-3631 (8114)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.9¢	$78.49	$75.37	-$3.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$71.96	$42.49	-$29.47
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$91.73	$97.51	+$5.77	49% 888-918 (1806)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.7¢	$38.67	$66.87	+$28.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$53.06	$30.64	-$22.43
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$84.4	$70.32	-$14.08	52% 909-838 (1747)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 49¢	$55.31	$54.75	-$0.56	51% 1975-1916 (3891)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$35.4	$47.9	+$12.5	44% 2198-2839 (5037)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100	Downavg 84¢	$44	$44.26	+$0.26	44% 298-385 (683)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Downavg 78¢	$45.9	$38.35	-$7.55	57% 341-262 (603)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 37.8¢	$32.19	$38.13	+$8.67	63% 4221-2527 (6748)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$25.2	$25.5	+$0.3	47% 2198-2452 (4650)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$11.89	$14.2	+$2.31	47% 2305-2557 (4862)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 34.2¢	$12.95	$14.13	+$1.17	48% 2280-2489 (4769)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$63.65	$13.93	-$15.74	60% 3891-2648 (6539)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$14.22	$13.62	-$0.6	67% 3590-1785 (5375)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$14.1	$12.55	-$1.55	49% 1355-1438 (2793)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	50% 864-867 (1731)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 70¢	$9.33	$9.06	-$0.27	51% 1504-1428 (2932)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 24¢	$7.2	$7.05	-$0.15	52% 5071-4760 (9831)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$4.34	$4.21	-$0.13	65% 2545-1392 (3937)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 20.5¢	$3.47	$3.65	+$0.18	52% 2809-2555 (5364)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.33	-$0.17	58% 3775-2737 (6512)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$515.6

Value

$500.57

PnL

+$4.05

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

Both legs:

Up$249.2250¢+$85.35

Down$250.6949.7¢-$81.3

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$314.83

Value

$436.18

PnL

+$121.35

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

Both legs:

Up$193.2235.9¢+$86.54

Down$121.6137.3¢+$34.82

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$384.8

Value

$349.27

PnL

-$32.68

Record

47%

1074-1189 (2263)

Both legs:

Up$246.0661.3¢-$15.35

Down$135.6748.7¢-$17.32

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$257.43

Value

$347.78

PnL

+$103.07

Record

58%

5072-3729 (8801)

Both legs:

Up$143.1334.4¢+$100.25

Down$106.0441.4¢+$2.82

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$240.93

Value

$190.54

PnL

-$48.59

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

Both legs:

Down$160.5757.3¢-$60.9

Up$74.6354.1¢+$12.31

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$150.44

Value

$117.87

PnL

-$32.58

Record

55%

4483-3631 (8114)

Both legs:

Up$78.4959.9¢-$3.11

Down$71.9672¢-$29.47

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.73

Value

$97.51

PnL

+$5.77

Record

49%

888-918 (1806)

Both legs:

Up$38.6743.7¢+$28.2

Down$53.0642.4¢-$22.43

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$84.4

Value

$70.32

PnL

-$14.08

Record

52%

909-838 (1747)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$55.31

Value

$54.75

PnL

-$0.56

Record

51%

1975-1916 (3891)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$35.4

Value

$47.9

PnL

+$12.5

Record

44%

2198-2839 (5037)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44

Value

$44.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

44%

298-385 (683)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.9

Value

$38.35

PnL

-$7.55

Record

57%

341-262 (603)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.19

Value

$38.13

PnL

+$8.67

Record

63%

4221-2527 (6748)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

47%

2198-2452 (4650)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$11.89

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$2.31

Record

47%

2305-2557 (4862)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.95

Value

$14.13

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

2280-2489 (4769)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.65

Value

$13.93

PnL

-$15.74

Record

60%

3891-2648 (6539)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$0.6

Record

67%

3590-1785 (5375)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$14.1

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$1.55

Record

49%

1355-1438 (2793)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

864-867 (1731)

almach<$100

Invested

$9.33

Value

$9.06

PnL

-$0.27

Record

51%

1504-1428 (2932)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

5071-4760 (9831)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.13

Record

65%

2545-1392 (3937)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

2809-2555 (5364)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

3775-2737 (6512)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.