Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$454.78

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 24 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,647

Combined PnL-$196.24

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,292

Combined PnL-$258.55

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$17.19	98% 3999-84 (4083)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88.3¢	$972.78	$858.05	-$114.73	47% 1074-1189 (2263)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 35.7¢	$719.23	$456.84	-$262.39	58% 5072-3729 (8801)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$267.56	$456.84	+$189.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.7¢	$451.67	—	-$451.67
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$521.09	$495	-$2.3	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$246.72	$495	+$249.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$252.04	—	-$251.7
ST stepahead	Downavg 59.3¢	$324.1	$306.15	-$17.95	55% 4483-3631 (8114)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 9.8¢	$195.15	—	-$195.15	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 85.9¢	$228.5	$229.06	+$0.56	52% 909-838 (1747)
AL almach	Downavg 94.9¢	$248.03	$178.57	-$69.46	51% 1504-1428 (2932)
MO mo-money	Downavg 92.2¢	$223.6	$169.86	-$53.74	51% 1495-1438 (2933)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 92¢	$174.59	$135.71	-$34.48	57% 341-262 (603)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$41.39	$80.13	+$38.74	48% 2280-2489 (4769)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 89¢	$66.75	$75	+$8.25	58% 3775-2737 (6512)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$56.45	$70	+$13.55	44% 2198-2839 (5037)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 94¢	$86.94	$63	-$23.94	51% 4748-4550 (9298)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 42¢	$106.86	$38	+$14.83	63% 4221-2527 (6748)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$35.14	$37.02	+$3.04	67% 3590-1785 (5375)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 56¢	$28	$50	+$22	51% 1975-1916 (3891)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 35.5¢	$24.24	—	-$24.24	49% 888-918 (1806)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Upavg 47.6¢	$17.24	—	-$17.24	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 90¢	$13.5	$15	+$1.5	49% 1355-1438 (2793)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 95¢	$14.8	$10	-$4.8	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 68¢	$6.8	$10	+$3.2	47% 2198-2452 (4650)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$12.86	—	-$12.86	52% 2809-2555 (5364)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$4.6	—	-$4.6	52% 5071-4760 (9831)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$3.25	—	-$3.25	60% 3891-2648 (6539)