Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 61%
2 arb excluded
$7.7K
-$727.52
Smart Money Signal
19 of 32 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 69.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$369.5 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$20.42 | 98% 3999-84 (4083) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 47.4¢ | $825.4 | $928.14 | +$160.39 | 58% 5072-3729 (8801) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 95.5¢ | $848.71 | $795 | +$6.29 | 58% 3775-2737 (6512) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 62.3¢ | $686.05 | $785 | +$98.94 | 47% 1074-1189 (2263) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 52.2¢ | $608.83 | — | -$602.25 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
BO bosona | Upavg 88.5¢ | $569.43 | $566.12 | +$30.84 | 51% 4748-4550 (9298) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $539.26 | $490.39 | +$1.41 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $253.12 | — | -$251.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.2¢ | $241.49 | $490.39 | +$252.56 | |
LI Little-big | Upavg 59.6¢ | $184.82 | $310.16 | +$125.34 | 51% 1023-979 (2002) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 69¢ | $227.21 | $174.99 | -$52.22 | 52% 909-838 (1747) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 35.8¢ | $166.1 | — | -$166.1 | 55% 4483-3631 (8114) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 28.7¢ | $165.92 | — | -$165.92 | 51% 1504-1428 (2932) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 46.9¢ | $69.11 | $137 | +$67.89 | 51% 1495-1438 (2933) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Upavg 95.5¢ | $93.87 | $98.34 | +$4.47 | 57% 138-103 (241) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $97.76 | $93.46 | -$4.3 | 49% 888-918 (1806) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 12.3¢ | $2.1K | — | +$198.51 | 49% 2396-2460 (4856) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $52.28 | $59.18 | +$9.08 | 67% 3590-1785 (5375) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $47.34 | $51 | +$3.66 | 48% 2280-2489 (4769) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.9¢ | $22.35 | — | -$22.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $24.99 | $51 | +$26.01 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $45.05 | $45 | -$0.05 | 47% 2305-2557 (4862) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $25.67 | — | -$25.67 | 44% 2198-2839 (5037) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $50.26 | $77.78 | +$31.52 | 57% 341-262 (603) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $18.04 | $20 | +$1.96 | 52% 2809-2555 (5364) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $11.04 | — | -$11.04 | 52% 5071-4760 (9831) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Upavg 47.9¢ | $13.62 | $28.42 | +$14.8 | 53% 2078-1852 (3930) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.6¢ | $24.91 | — | -$24.91 | 64% 1935-1087 (3022) |
Invested
$1,929.16
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$369.5
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$1,448.58
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$20.42
Record
98%
3999-84 (4083)
Invested
$825.4
Value
$928.14
PnL
+$160.39
Record
58%
5072-3729 (8801)
Invested
$848.71
Value
$795
PnL
+$6.29
Record
58%
3775-2737 (6512)
Invested
$686.05
Value
$785
PnL
+$98.94
Record
47%
1074-1189 (2263)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$608.83
Value
—
PnL
-$602.25
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
Invested
$569.43
Value
$566.12
PnL
+$30.84
Record
51%
4748-4550 (9298)
Invested
$539.26
Value
$490.39
PnL
+$1.41
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Both legs:
Invested
$184.82
Value
$310.16
PnL
+$125.34
Record
51%
1023-979 (2002)
Invested
$227.21
Value
$174.99
PnL
-$52.22
Record
52%
909-838 (1747)
Invested
$166.1
Value
—
PnL
-$166.1
Record
55%
4483-3631 (8114)
Invested
$165.92
Value
—
PnL
-$165.92
Record
51%
1504-1428 (2932)
Invested
$69.11
Value
$137
PnL
+$67.89
Record
51%
1495-1438 (2933)
Invested
$93.87
Value
$98.34
PnL
+$4.47
Record
57%
138-103 (241)
Invested
$97.76
Value
$93.46
PnL
-$4.3
Record
49%
888-918 (1806)
Invested
$2,068.49
Value
—
PnL
+$198.51
Record
49%
2396-2460 (4856)
Invested
$52.28
Value
$59.18
PnL
+$9.08
Record
67%
3590-1785 (5375)
Invested
$47.34
Value
$51
PnL
+$3.66
Record
48%
2280-2489 (4769)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.05
Value
$45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2305-2557 (4862)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$25.67
Value
—
PnL
-$25.67
Record
44%
2198-2839 (5037)
Invested
$50.26
Value
$77.78
PnL
+$31.52
Record
57%
341-262 (603)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.04
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.96
Record
52%
2809-2555 (5364)
Invested
$11.04
Value
—
PnL
-$11.04
Record
52%
5071-4760 (9831)
Invested
$13.62
Value
$28.42
PnL
+$14.8
Record
53%
2078-1852 (3930)
Invested
$24.91
Value
—
PnL
-$24.91
Record
64%
1935-1087 (3022)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.6K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
Hcrystallash
Up — $928.14
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $795
CrouchPredictions
Up — $785
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $566.12
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Up — $310.16
EZTRADENL2
Up — $174.99