Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 81%
1 arb excluded
$7.8K
$308.88
Smart Money Signal
26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 89.3¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$219.41 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$123.21 | 42% 1805-2456 (4261) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 91¢ | $952.89 | $891 | -$25.54 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $653.4 | $660 | +$6.6 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 75.4¢ | $427.96 | $555.21 | +$128.34 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $510.93 | $490 | -$1.9 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $244.62 | $490 | +$249.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $251.4 | — | -$251 | |
MO mo-money | Upavg 66.7¢ | $229.51 | $338.87 | +$109.36 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
AL almach | Upavg 39.3¢ | $131.99 | $280.23 | +$148.24 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
BO bosona | Upavg 67.3¢ | $172.73 | $250.37 | +$77.64 | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $274.9 | $200 | -$74.9 | 52% 903-831 (1734) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 46.9¢ | $166.3 | $180 | +$49.46 | 58% 5063-3721 (8784) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 55.3¢ | $157.74 | $146.92 | -$10.82 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 52.8¢ | $110.29 | — | -$110.29 | 51% 1968-1903 (3871) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 65.3¢ | $89.17 | $111.76 | +$22.59 | 57% 334-257 (591) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $108.25 | $105.82 | -$2.43 | 49% 886-917 (1803) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $51.32 | $83.89 | +$32.57 | 58% 3760-2730 (6490) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 85.3¢ | $71.87 | $73.24 | +$2.31 | 67% 3569-1770 (5339) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85.8¢ | $55.26 | $64.4 | +$9.14 | 59% 3865-2632 (6497) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $45 | $51.14 | +$6.14 | 43% 296-385 (681) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $26.25 | $35 | +$8.75 | 47% 2185-2435 (4620) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $24.3 | $54 | +$29.7 | 51% 1013-972 (1985) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.2¢ | $20.35 | — | -$20.35 | 52% 2790-2541 (5331) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $19.7 | $19.24 | -$0.35 | 65% 2523-1384 (3907) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $17 | $20 | +$3 | 70% 1672-705 (2377) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $17.78 | $10.88 | -$6.9 | 48% 2261-2474 (4735) |
Invested
$2,080.24
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$219.41
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$1,116.99
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$123.21
Record
42%
1805-2456 (4261)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$952.89
Value
$891
PnL
-$25.54
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Invested
$653.4
Value
$660
PnL
+$6.6
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$427.96
Value
$555.21
PnL
+$128.34
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
Invested
$510.93
Value
$490
PnL
-$1.9
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Both legs:
Invested
$229.51
Value
$338.87
PnL
+$109.36
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$131.99
Value
$280.23
PnL
+$148.24
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$172.73
Value
$250.37
PnL
+$77.64
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Invested
$274.9
Value
$200
PnL
-$74.9
Record
52%
903-831 (1734)
Invested
$166.3
Value
$180
PnL
+$49.46
Record
58%
5063-3721 (8784)
Invested
$157.74
Value
$146.92
PnL
-$10.82
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
Invested
$110.29
Value
—
PnL
-$110.29
Record
51%
1968-1903 (3871)
Invested
$89.17
Value
$111.76
PnL
+$22.59
Record
57%
334-257 (591)
Invested
$108.25
Value
$105.82
PnL
-$2.43
Record
49%
886-917 (1803)
Invested
$51.32
Value
$83.89
PnL
+$32.57
Record
58%
3760-2730 (6490)
Invested
$71.87
Value
$73.24
PnL
+$2.31
Record
67%
3569-1770 (5339)
Invested
$55.26
Value
$64.4
PnL
+$9.14
Record
59%
3865-2632 (6497)
Invested
$45
Value
$51.14
PnL
+$6.14
Record
43%
296-385 (681)
ohioism<$100Invested
$26.25
Value
$35
PnL
+$8.75
Record
47%
2185-2435 (4620)
Invested
$24.3
Value
$54
PnL
+$29.7
Record
51%
1013-972 (1985)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$20.35
Value
—
PnL
-$20.35
Record
52%
2790-2541 (5331)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$19.24
PnL
-$0.35
Record
65%
2523-1384 (3907)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$17
Value
$20
PnL
+$3
Record
70%
1672-705 (2377)
Invested
$17.78
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$6.9
Record
48%
2261-2474 (4735)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.9K
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $1.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $891
hoodquant
Up — $660
CrouchPredictions
Up — $555.21
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Up — $338.87
almach
Up — $280.23
bosona
Up — $250.37
EZTRADENL2
Up — $200