Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$524.51

Smart Money Signal

20 of 28 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,372

Combined PnL-$239.32

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL-$285.2

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 94¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$109.24	42% 1805-2456 (4261)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$67.1	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 82¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$153.63	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80¢	$838.06	$847.64	+$13.57	47% 1068-1182 (2250)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$507.59	$490	-$5.2	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$244.41	$490	+$248
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$253.2	—	-$253.2
AL almach	Upavg 99¢	$528.76	$407.84	-$120.92	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
BO bosona	Upavg 94¢	$293.81	$165.75	-$128.06	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 77.7¢	$136.79	$175.98	+$39.19	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 24.9¢	$131.81	—	-$131.81	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 62.3¢	$68.75	$110.28	+$41.53	48% 2261-2474 (4735)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Upavg 94.3¢	$48	$50.9	+$2.9	43% 296-385 (681)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 93.5¢	$54.36	$40	-$14.36	49% 886-917 (1803)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98.1¢	$26.82	$26	-$0.82	67% 3569-1770 (5339)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 47.6¢	$16.65	$35	+$18.35	47% 2185-2435 (4620)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81¢	$26.16	$23.91	-$2.25	59% 3865-2632 (6497)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 86.4¢	$21.99	$23.3	+$1.31	50% 2527-2554 (5081)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$93.71	$12	+$4.42	52% 903-831 (1734)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$10	$20	+$10	50% 852-864 (1716)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$6.8	—	-$6.8	49% 2374-2443 (4817)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$6.93	$7	+$0.07	65% 2523-1384 (3907)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$6.26	$12.5	+$6.24	38% 696-1135 (1831)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$16.62	$6	-$0.05	63% 4195-2511 (6706)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 79¢	$3.95	$5	+$1.05	47% 2283-2545 (4828)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 25.5¢	$15.3	—	-$15.3	52% 5063-4757 (9820)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$2.44	—	-$2.44	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,714.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$109.24

Record

42%

1805-2456 (4261)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,503.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$67.1

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,298.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$153.63

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$838.06

Value

$847.64

PnL

+$13.57

Record

47%

1068-1182 (2250)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$507.59

Value

$490

PnL

-$5.2

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Both legs:

Up$244.4149.9¢+$248

Down$253.249.6¢-$253.2

almach

Invested

$528.76

Value

$407.84

PnL

-$120.92

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

bosona

Invested

$293.81

Value

$165.75

PnL

-$128.06

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$136.79

Value

$175.98

PnL

+$39.19

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$131.81

Value

—

PnL

-$131.81

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$68.75

Value

$110.28

PnL

+$41.53

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$50.9

PnL

+$2.9

Record

43%

296-385 (681)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$54.36

Value

$40

PnL

-$14.36

Record

49%

886-917 (1803)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$26.82

Value

$26

PnL

-$0.82

Record

67%

3569-1770 (5339)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$16.65

Value

$35

PnL

+$18.35

Record

47%

2185-2435 (4620)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$26.16

Value

$23.91

PnL

-$2.25

Record

59%

3865-2632 (6497)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$21.99

Value

$23.3

PnL

+$1.31

Record

50%

2527-2554 (5081)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$93.71

Value

$12

PnL

+$4.42

Record

52%

903-831 (1734)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$20

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

852-864 (1716)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.8

Value

—

PnL

-$6.8

Record

49%

2374-2443 (4817)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

PnL

+$0.07

Record

65%

2523-1384 (3907)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$6.26

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$6.24

Record

38%

696-1135 (1831)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$16.62

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

PnL

+$1.05

Record

47%

2283-2545 (4828)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.3

Value

—

PnL

-$15.3

Record

52%

5063-4757 (9820)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.44

Value

—

PnL

-$2.44

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 28 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x261a0717...3d04af

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794708000

Traders in this Market

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.8K

+$109.24

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $1.4K

-$67.1

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $1.1K

-$153.63

CrouchPredictions

Up — $847.64

+$13.57

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$5.2

almach

Up — $407.84

-$120.92

bosona

Up — $165.75

-$128.06

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $175.98

+$39.19

mo-money

CTR

Down — $0

-$131.81

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $110.28

+$41.53

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