Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

27 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$929.65

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 37 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares9,801

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Up10 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares9,340

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 71.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$93.08	51% 3277-3198 (6475)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 62.2¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$595.76	58% 5051-3712 (8763)
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$98.13	46% 2924-3473 (6397)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 55.5¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	+$1.4K	49% 2352-2415 (4767)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$924.66	$933.53	+$8.87	98% 3919-84 (4003)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 82.3¢	$1.1K	$858.41	-$44.17	52% 2275-2131 (4406)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$515.23	$495.12	+$5.48	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 53.6¢	$218.83	$402.79	+$184.61	47% 1054-1177 (2231)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 82.6¢	$306.27	$349.86	+$43.59	52% 890-825 (1715)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 63.2¢	$290.69	$325.96	+$119.02	58% 3734-2702 (6436)
ST stepahead	Downavg 54.7¢	$199.55	$237.16	+$37.61	55% 4461-3621 (8082)
MO mo-money	Downavg 93¢	$707.8	$227.56	+$148.26	51% 1473-1419 (2892)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 82.4¢	$180.36	$204.68	+$24.32	52% 2764-2526 (5290)
LI Little-big	Downavg 48.5¢	$97.13	$200.33	+$103.21	51% 1005-962 (1967)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$119.92	$169.67	+$57.77	51% 4729-4529 (9258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$72.28	$131.36	+$58.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.9¢	$41.26	$38.31	-$1.08
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 65.3¢	$70.93	$105.86	+$34.93	57% 324-249 (573)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 95¢	$98	$103.11	+$5.11	43% 294-384 (678)
ohioism	Downavg 57.9¢	$129.97	$100.01	-$14.06	47% 2170-2411 (4581)
AA aaa221	Downavg 75¢	$135.42	$99.78	-$22.84	59% 3835-2614 (6449)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 50¢	$37.5	$74.96	+$37.46	47% 186-210 (396)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 90.3¢	$66.58	$68.83	+$4.41	50% 2497-2540 (5037)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87¢	$58.18	$65.19	+$7.4	67% 3532-1757 (5289)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$68.51	$64.81	-$3.7	48% 2240-2454 (4694)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$31.75	$40.62	+$8.88	44% 2169-2794 (4963)
AL almach	Downavg 50.8¢	$121.68	$33.68	+$104.99	51% 1479-1409 (2888)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,129.72

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$93.08

Record

51%

3277-3198 (6475)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,171.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$595.76

Record

58%

5051-3712 (8763)

suntoriCTR

Invested

$1,401.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$98.13

Record

46%

2924-3473 (6397)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$2,169.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

2352-2415 (4767)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$924.66

Value

$933.53

PnL

+$8.87

Record

98%

3919-84 (4003)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,056.98

Value

$858.41

PnL

-$44.17

Record

52%

2275-2131 (4406)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$515.23

Value

$495.12

PnL

+$5.48

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$218.83

Value

$402.79

PnL

+$184.61

Record

47%

1054-1177 (2231)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$306.27

Value

$349.86

PnL

+$43.59

Record

52%

890-825 (1715)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$290.69

Value

$325.96

PnL

+$119.02

Record

58%

3734-2702 (6436)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$199.55

Value

$237.16

PnL

+$37.61

Record

55%

4461-3621 (8082)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$707.8

Value

$227.56

PnL

+$148.26

Record

51%

1473-1419 (2892)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$180.36

Value

$204.68

PnL

+$24.32

Record

52%

2764-2526 (5290)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$97.13

Value

$200.33

PnL

+$103.21

Record

51%

1005-962 (1967)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.92

Value

$169.67

PnL

+$57.77

Record

51%

4729-4529 (9258)

Both legs:

Invested

$70.93

Value

$105.86

PnL

+$34.93

Record

57%

324-249 (573)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$98

Value

$103.11

PnL

+$5.11

Record

43%

294-384 (678)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$129.97

Value

$100.01

PnL

-$14.06

Record

47%

2170-2411 (4581)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$135.42

Value

$99.78

PnL

-$22.84

Record

59%

3835-2614 (6449)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$37.5

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$37.46

Record

47%

186-210 (396)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$66.58

Value

$68.83

PnL

+$4.41

Record

50%

2497-2540 (5037)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$58.18

Value

$65.19

PnL

+$7.4

Record

67%

3532-1757 (5289)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$68.51

Value

$64.81

PnL

-$3.7

Record

48%

2240-2454 (4694)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$31.75

Value

$40.62

PnL

+$8.88

Record

44%

2169-2794 (4963)

almach

Down

Invested

$121.68

Value

$33.68

PnL

+$104.99

Record

51%

1479-1409 (2888)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 37 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.