Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
-$215.79
Smart Money Signal
23 of 34 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$106.71 | 51% 3277-3198 (6475) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.36 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88.7¢ | $853.96 | $684.98 | -$168.98 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 60.4¢ | $554.94 | — | -$554.94 | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 65.1¢ | $514.89 | $594.72 | +$79.83 | 58% 5051-3712 (8763) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 56.7¢ | $557.34 | $574.76 | +$17.42 | 55% 4461-3621 (8082) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.8¢ | $526.85 | — | -$492.52 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.8¢ | $235.98 | $353.59 | +$119.23 | 47% 1054-1177 (2231) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $157.34 | $195.33 | +$37.99 | 52% 890-825 (1715) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $131.3 | $166.61 | +$35.31 | 51% 4729-4529 (9258) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.2¢ | $85.37 | $166.61 | +$81.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9.7¢ | $45.93 | — | -$45.93 | |
AL almach | Downavg 51.8¢ | $265.23 | $190.21 | +$207.68 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 62.4¢ | $124.91 | $159.64 | +$38.69 | 58% 3734-2702 (6436) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 87.5¢ | $138.75 | $154 | +$15.25 | 52% 2764-2526 (5290) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $64.69 | $122.3 | +$57.61 | 57% 324-249 (573) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 50¢ | $100 | $200 | +$100 | 51% 1005-962 (1967) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 47.6¢ | $57.06 | $120 | +$62.94 | 52% 891-824 (1715) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $36.75 | $75 | +$38.25 | 47% 186-210 (396) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $77.11 | $36.41 | -$4.89 | 62% 4151-2496 (6647) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Downavg 47.1¢ | $29.84 | $63.42 | +$33.58 | 53% 2030-1802 (3832) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.3¢ | $60.12 | — | -$36.04 | 59% 3835-2614 (6449) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $26.5 | — | -$26.5 | 51% 1955-1898 (3853) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $21 | $25.3 | +$4.3 | 47% 2261-2522 (4783) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.4¢ | $19.12 | $23.48 | +$4.36 | 67% 3532-1757 (5289) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $16.5 | $30 | +$13.5 | 52% 5054-4750 (9804) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $11.99 | — | -$11.99 | 44% 2169-2794 (4963) |
Invested
$1,538.36
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$106.71
Record
51%
3277-3198 (6475)
Invested
$1,223.64
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.36
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$853.96
Value
$684.98
PnL
-$168.98
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$554.94
Value
—
PnL
-$554.94
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
Invested
$514.89
Value
$594.72
PnL
+$79.83
Record
58%
5051-3712 (8763)
Invested
$557.34
Value
$574.76
PnL
+$17.42
Record
55%
4461-3621 (8082)
Invested
$526.85
Value
—
PnL
-$492.52
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Invested
$235.98
Value
$353.59
PnL
+$119.23
Record
47%
1054-1177 (2231)
Invested
$157.34
Value
$195.33
PnL
+$37.99
Record
52%
890-825 (1715)
Invested
$131.3
Value
$166.61
PnL
+$35.31
Record
51%
4729-4529 (9258)
Both legs:
Invested
$265.23
Value
$190.21
PnL
+$207.68
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$124.91
Value
$159.64
PnL
+$38.69
Record
58%
3734-2702 (6436)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$138.75
Value
$154
PnL
+$15.25
Record
52%
2764-2526 (5290)
Invested
$64.69
Value
$122.3
PnL
+$57.61
Record
57%
324-249 (573)
Invested
$100
Value
$200
PnL
+$100
Record
51%
1005-962 (1967)
Invested
$57.06
Value
$120
PnL
+$62.94
Record
52%
891-824 (1715)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$38.25
Record
47%
186-210 (396)
Invested
$77.11
Value
$36.41
PnL
-$4.89
Record
62%
4151-2496 (6647)
Invested
$29.84
Value
$63.42
PnL
+$33.58
Record
53%
2030-1802 (3832)
Invested
$60.12
Value
—
PnL
-$36.04
Record
59%
3835-2614 (6449)
Invested
$26.5
Value
—
PnL
-$26.5
Record
51%
1955-1898 (3853)
Invested
$21
Value
$25.3
PnL
+$4.3
Record
47%
2261-2522 (4783)
Invested
$19.12
Value
$23.48
PnL
+$4.36
Record
67%
3532-1757 (5289)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$13.5
Record
52%
5054-4750 (9804)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$11.99
Value
—
PnL
-$11.99
Record
44%
2169-2794 (4963)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $684.98
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $594.72
stepahead
Down — $574.76
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $353.59
EZTRADENL2
Down — $195.33
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded