Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 77%
4 arb excluded
$7.4K
$473.54
Smart Money Signal
23 of 31 top traders (74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 81.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$144.86 | 51% 3277-3198 (6475) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 7.1¢ | $108.23 | — | -$108.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$253.1 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $973.58 | $931.65 | -$32.43 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.9¢ | $129.85 | — | -$129.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.6¢ | $834.77 | $931.65 | +$97.42 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 62.5¢ | $882.08 | $1.4K | +$525.91 | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $674.11 | $680.92 | +$6.81 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $516.24 | $500 | +$9.1 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $245.38 | — | -$245.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $251.27 | $500 | +$254.4 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 58¢ | $366.43 | $428.59 | +$125.86 | 58% 5051-3712 (8763) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 58¢ | $254.55 | $426.71 | +$176.32 | 47% 1054-1177 (2231) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.9¢ | $71.15 | — | -$71.15 | 51% 4729-4529 (9258) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 8.8¢ | $116.28 | — | -$43.82 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $198.33 | $233.82 | +$35.49 | 55% 4461-3621 (8082) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.5¢ | $34.66 | — | -$34.66 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $163.67 | $233.82 | +$70.14 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 54.5¢ | $109.03 | $200.09 | +$91.06 | 51% 1005-962 (1967) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 91¢ | $164.71 | $181 | +$16.29 | 58% 3734-2702 (6436) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $132.77 | $114.33 | +$1.16 | 52% 890-825 (1715) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 83.5¢ | $157.9 | $189 | +$31.1 | 52% 2764-2526 (5290) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $82.98 | $83.79 | +$1.25 | 67% 3532-1757 (5289) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $42.75 | $66.91 | +$24.16 | 47% 186-210 (396) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $92.08 | $131.21 | +$39.13 | 57% 324-249 (573) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $45 | $52.94 | +$7.94 | 43% 294-384 (678) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $85.33 | $102.52 | +$17.19 | 59% 3835-2614 (6449) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 92¢ | $119.6 | $40 | +$0.4 | 62% 4151-2496 (6647) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $52.8 | $60 | +$7.2 | 48% 2240-2454 (4694) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $25.16 | — | -$25.16 | 51% 1955-1898 (3853) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 9¢ | $395.05 | — | -$10.37 | 51% 1473-1419 (2892) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $14.58 | $19.37 | +$4.79 | 50% 2497-2540 (5037) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 82.2¢ | $16.8 | $19.07 | +$2.27 | 64% 2500-1377 (3877) |
Invested
$1,243.33
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$144.86
Record
51%
3277-3198 (6475)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$973.58
Value
$931.65
PnL
-$32.43
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Both legs:
Invested
$882.08
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$525.91
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
Invested
$674.11
Value
$680.92
PnL
+$6.81
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Invested
$516.24
Value
$500
PnL
+$9.1
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Both legs:
Invested
$366.43
Value
$428.59
PnL
+$125.86
Record
58%
5051-3712 (8763)
Invested
$254.55
Value
$426.71
PnL
+$176.32
Record
47%
1054-1177 (2231)
Invested
$71.15
Value
—
PnL
-$71.15
Record
51%
4729-4529 (9258)
Invested
$116.28
Value
—
PnL
-$43.82
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$198.33
Value
$233.82
PnL
+$35.49
Record
55%
4461-3621 (8082)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.03
Value
$200.09
PnL
+$91.06
Record
51%
1005-962 (1967)
Invested
$164.71
Value
$181
PnL
+$16.29
Record
58%
3734-2702 (6436)
Invested
$132.77
Value
$114.33
PnL
+$1.16
Record
52%
890-825 (1715)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$157.9
Value
$189
PnL
+$31.1
Record
52%
2764-2526 (5290)
Invested
$82.98
Value
$83.79
PnL
+$1.25
Record
67%
3532-1757 (5289)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$42.75
Value
$66.91
PnL
+$24.16
Record
47%
186-210 (396)
Invested
$92.08
Value
$131.21
PnL
+$39.13
Record
57%
324-249 (573)
Invested
$45
Value
$52.94
PnL
+$7.94
Record
43%
294-384 (678)
Invested
$85.33
Value
$102.52
PnL
+$17.19
Record
59%
3835-2614 (6449)
Invested
$119.6
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.4
Record
62%
4151-2496 (6647)
Invested
$52.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.2
Record
48%
2240-2454 (4694)
Invested
$25.16
Value
—
PnL
-$25.16
Record
51%
1955-1898 (3853)
Invested
$395.05
Value
—
PnL
-$10.37
Record
51%
1473-1419 (2892)
Invested
$14.58
Value
$19.37
PnL
+$4.79
Record
50%
2497-2540 (5037)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$2.27
Record
64%
2500-1377 (3877)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.4K
hoodquant
Down — $680.92
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Down — $428.59
CrouchPredictions
Down — $426.71
bosona
CTRUp — $0
almach
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded