Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$133.05
Smart Money Signal
16 of 25 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$19.4 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 91.9¢ | $1.1K | $981.3 | -$113.36 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 55.1¢ | $508.31 | $662.47 | +$154.16 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 91.8¢ | $471.44 | $506.35 | +$34.91 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $510.42 | $490.01 | -$1.95 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $243.63 | $490.01 | +$248.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $251.85 | — | -$250.05 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $283.58 | $285 | +$1.42 | 52% 874-813 (1687) |
AL almach | Downavg 96¢ | $253.73 | $262.25 | +$8.52 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 60¢ | $227.97 | $225 | -$2.97 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $239.32 | $461 | +$221.68 | 51% 1932-1885 (3817) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.7¢ | $196.92 | $164.83 | -$32.09 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 97.2¢ | $50.68 | $52.14 | +$1.46 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 70.8¢ | $64.5 | $50 | -$14.5 | 56% 307-237 (544) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $82.25 | $54.2 | +$8.21 | 58% 3692-2676 (6368) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $28.47 | $29.61 | +$1.14 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $10.1 | $22 | +$11.9 | 47% 2230-2478 (4708) |
 gabigolCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.2¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 49% 267-281 (548) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $10.25 | $13 | +$2.75 | 50% 2462-2507 (4969) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $12.13 | — | -$12.13 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $10.5 | $10.05 | -$0.18 | 65% 2474-1360 (3834) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $4.91 | — | -$4.91 | 59% 3783-2578 (6361) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Upavg 37.8¢ | $195.05 | — | -$180.3 | 58% 5031-3699 (8730) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $49.08 | — | -$10.09 | 63% 4099-2458 (6557) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $96.37 | — | -$96.37 | 42% 1736-2377 (4113) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $98.1 | — | -$98.1 | 51% 990-949 (1939) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $14.35 | — | -$14.35 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
Invested
$1,444.25
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.4
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,095.46
Value
$981.3
PnL
-$113.36
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$508.31
Value
$662.47
PnL
+$154.16
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Invested
$471.44
Value
$506.35
PnL
+$34.91
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$510.42
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$1.95
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Both legs:
Invested
$283.58
Value
$285
PnL
+$1.42
Record
52%
874-813 (1687)
Invested
$253.73
Value
$262.25
PnL
+$8.52
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$227.97
Value
$225
PnL
-$2.97
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$239.32
Value
$461
PnL
+$221.68
Record
51%
1932-1885 (3817)
Invested
$196.92
Value
$164.83
PnL
-$32.09
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$50.68
Value
$52.14
PnL
+$1.46
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$64.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$14.5
Record
56%
307-237 (544)
Invested
$82.25
Value
$54.2
PnL
+$8.21
Record
58%
3692-2676 (6368)
Invested
$28.47
Value
$29.61
PnL
+$1.14
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$22
PnL
+$11.9
Record
47%
2230-2478 (4708)
gabigolCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
49%
267-281 (548)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$13
PnL
+$2.75
Record
50%
2462-2507 (4969)
Invested
$12.13
Value
—
PnL
-$12.13
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$0.18
Record
65%
2474-1360 (3834)
Invested
$4.91
Value
—
PnL
-$4.91
Record
59%
3783-2578 (6361)
Invested
$195.05
Value
—
PnL
-$180.3
Record
58%
5031-3699 (8730)
Invested
$49.08
Value
—
PnL
-$10.09
Record
63%
4099-2458 (6557)
Invested
$96.37
Value
—
PnL
-$96.37
Record
42%
1736-2377 (4113)
Invested
$98.1
Value
—
PnL
-$98.1
Record
51%
990-949 (1939)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$14.35
Value
—
PnL
-$14.35
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $981.3
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $662.47
mo-money
Down — $506.35
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Down — $285
almach
Down — $262.25
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $225
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $461
stepahead
Down — $164.83