Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
25 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Down
31
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$505.77
84¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 25 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
25 of 31 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.92 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $704.63 | $782.36 | +$77.74 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 76.3¢ | $460 | $602.73 | +$142.73 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $502.2 | $499.35 | +$0.51 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $337.5 | +$87.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $247.24 | $161.85 | -$86.99 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.2¢ | $445.81 | $476.5 | +$30.69 | 52% 874-813 (1687) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 64.1¢ | $270.04 | $387.23 | +$117.19 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 66.2¢ | $290.52 | $255.33 | +$91.59 | 58% 5031-3699 (8730) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.8¢ | $154.33 | $188.21 | +$33.89 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
 gabigol | Downavg 95.4¢ | $176.79 | $183.42 | +$6.64 | 49% 267-281 (548) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 61.6¢ | $161.73 | $159 | -$2.64 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 69.8¢ | $116.52 | $127.76 | +$11.24 | 58% 3692-2676 (6368) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $83.78 | $95.91 | +$12.13 | 56% 307-237 (544) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $74.94 | $87.64 | +$12.7 | 59% 3783-2578 (6361) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 49.2¢ | $36.75 | $74.66 | +$37.91 | 47% 181-205 (386) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $65.1 | $59.98 | -$4.72 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $60.94 | $56.71 | -$4.23 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $49.5 | $51.54 | +$2.04 | 43% 294-383 (677) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 94.9¢ | $42.61 | $41.53 | -$1.07 | 48% 2195-2413 (4608) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $37.38 | $36.54 | -$0.84 | 51% 1932-1885 (3817) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $45.25 | $28.75 | -$16.5 | 71% 1635-682 (2317) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $34 | $25.45 | -$8.55 | 47% 2139-2368 (4507) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76.1¢ | $18.72 | $24.58 | +$5.85 | 63% 4099-2458 (6557) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $12.3 | $16.04 | +$3.74 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $11.53 | $11.82 | +$0.29 | 50% 2462-2507 (4969) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $8.61 | $7 | -$1.61 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
Invested
$1,504.37
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.92
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$704.63
Value
$782.36
PnL
+$77.74
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Invested
$460
Value
$602.73
PnL
+$142.73
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Invested
$502.2
Value
$499.35
PnL
+$0.51
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Both legs:
Invested
$445.81
Value
$476.5
PnL
+$30.69
Record
52%
874-813 (1687)
Invested
$270.04
Value
$387.23
PnL
+$117.19
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$290.52
Value
$255.33
PnL
+$91.59
Record
58%
5031-3699 (8730)
Invested
$154.33
Value
$188.21
PnL
+$33.89
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
gabigolInvested
$176.79
Value
$183.42
PnL
+$6.64
Record
49%
267-281 (548)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$161.73
Value
$159
PnL
-$2.64
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$116.52
Value
$127.76
PnL
+$11.24
Record
58%
3692-2676 (6368)
Invested
$83.78
Value
$95.91
PnL
+$12.13
Record
56%
307-237 (544)
Invested
$74.94
Value
$87.64
PnL
+$12.7
Record
59%
3783-2578 (6361)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
$74.66
PnL
+$37.91
Record
47%
181-205 (386)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$65.1
Value
$59.98
PnL
-$4.72
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
Invested
$60.94
Value
$56.71
PnL
-$4.23
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$51.54
PnL
+$2.04
Record
43%
294-383 (677)
Invested
$42.61
Value
$41.53
PnL
-$1.07
Record
48%
2195-2413 (4608)
Invested
$37.38
Value
$36.54
PnL
-$0.84
Record
51%
1932-1885 (3817)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$45.25
Value
$28.75
PnL
-$16.5
Record
71%
1635-682 (2317)
ohioism<$100Invested
$34
Value
$25.45
PnL
-$8.55
Record
47%
2139-2368 (4507)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$24.58
PnL
+$5.85
Record
63%
4099-2458 (6557)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$16.04
PnL
+$3.74
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
Invested
$11.53
Value
$11.82
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
2462-2507 (4969)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$7
PnL
-$1.61
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $782.36
uninformedfloww
Down — $602.73
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Down — $476.5
CrouchPredictions
Down — $387.23
Hcrystallash
Down — $255.33
stepahead
Down — $188.21
gabigol
Down — $183.42
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $159