Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 58%
4 arb excluded
$14.4K
$-4.4K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 35.3¢ | $2.7K | — | $-2.3K | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 83.5¢ | $3.9K | $2.6K | $-1.2K | 28% 495-1271 (1766) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 86.3¢ | $3.9K | $2.3K | $-1.5K | 36% 75-133 (208) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 54.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$126.57 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
BO bosona | Upavg 30.6¢ | $660.16 | $1.3K | +$1.1K | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 44.6¢ | $770.37 | $941.36 | +$170.99 | 58% 5031-3699 (8730) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $803.17 | $1.0K | +$211.86 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.5¢ | $520.32 | — | -$520.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.9¢ | $282.85 | $1.0K | +$732.19 | |
AL almach | Upavg 24.4¢ | $199.58 | $667.86 | +$550.34 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 24.5¢ | $423.88 | $576.87 | +$686.21 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 55¢ | $800.05 | — | -$800.05 | 64% 1925-1072 (2997) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $511.37 | $493.43 | +$10.33 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $243.35 | — | -$239.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $244.42 | $493.43 | +$249.76 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 65.7¢ | $416.75 | $424.9 | +$8.16 | 52% 874-813 (1687) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 45.8¢ | $283.26 | $344.7 | +$67.26 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 63.6¢ | $411.69 | $326.29 | -$60.03 | 58% 3692-2676 (6368) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 69.9¢ | $337.37 | $343.55 | +$6.18 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.6¢ | $97.11 | — | -$97.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.9¢ | $240.26 | $343.55 | +$103.29 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $110.69 | $249.05 | +$138.36 | 48% 2195-2413 (4608) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 21.7¢ | $95.51 | $231.18 | +$135.67 | 52% 2738-2492 (5230) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 78.8¢ | $595.83 | — | -$595.83 | 26% 280-778 (1058) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Downavg 36.8¢ | $148.9 | — | -$148.9 | 47% 2230-2478 (4708) |
 ohioism | Upavg 24.4¢ | $49.45 | $151.93 | +$102.48 | 47% 2139-2368 (4507) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $149.7 | $131.78 | -$17.92 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.7¢ | $83.88 | $131.78 | +$47.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $65.82 | — | -$65.82 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.3¢ | $90.98 | — | -$66.73 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $58.78 | — | -$43.27 | 59% 3783-2578 (6361) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $43.19 | $71.72 | +$28.53 | 50% 2462-2507 (4969) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.7¢ | $90.33 | — | -$63.32 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
Invested
$2,741.2
Value
—
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
NIULAI4Invested
$3,874.88
Value
$2.6K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
28%
495-1271 (1766)
Invested
$3,894.25
Value
$2.3K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
36%
75-133 (208)
Invested
$1,963.94
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$126.57
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$660.16
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$770.37
Value
$941.36
PnL
+$170.99
Record
58%
5031-3699 (8730)
Invested
$803.17
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$211.86
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Both legs:
Invested
$199.58
Value
$667.86
PnL
+$550.34
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$423.88
Value
$576.87
PnL
+$686.21
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$800.05
Value
—
PnL
-$800.05
Record
64%
1925-1072 (2997)
Invested
$511.37
Value
$493.43
PnL
+$10.33
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Both legs:
Invested
$416.75
Value
$424.9
PnL
+$8.16
Record
52%
874-813 (1687)
Invested
$283.26
Value
$344.7
PnL
+$67.26
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$411.69
Value
$326.29
PnL
-$60.03
Record
58%
3692-2676 (6368)
Invested
$337.37
Value
$343.55
PnL
+$6.18
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.69
Value
$249.05
PnL
+$138.36
Record
48%
2195-2413 (4608)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$95.51
Value
$231.18
PnL
+$135.67
Record
52%
2738-2492 (5230)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$595.83
Value
—
PnL
-$595.83
Record
26%
280-778 (1058)
Invested
$148.9
Value
—
PnL
-$148.9
Record
47%
2230-2478 (4708)
ohioismInvested
$49.45
Value
$151.93
PnL
+$102.48
Record
47%
2139-2368 (4507)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$149.7
Value
$131.78
PnL
-$17.92
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$90.98
Value
—
PnL
-$66.73
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
Invested
$58.78
Value
—
PnL
-$43.27
Record
59%
3783-2578 (6361)
Invested
$43.19
Value
$71.72
PnL
+$28.53
Record
50%
2462-2507 (4969)
Invested
$90.33
Value
—
PnL
-$63.32
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $2.6K
asabovesobelow2
Up — $2.3K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $2.1K
bosona
Up — $1.3K
Hcrystallash
Up — $941.36
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Up — $667.86
mo-money
Up — $576.87
RLWG
CTRDown — $0