Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Up 54%
5 arb excluded
$6.8K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 27 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$22.16 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 76.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$62.31 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 83.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$242.14 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $521.62 | $495.49 | +$0.34 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $246.39 | $495.49 | +$249.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $250.67 | — | -$249.24 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 63.1¢ | $266.97 | $423.14 | +$156.17 | 58% 3692-2676 (6368) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $381.36 | $284.23 | -$63.64 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 95¢ | $270.02 | $284.23 | +$17.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.4¢ | $83.69 | — | -$80.74 | |
RL RLWG | Upavg 63.5¢ | $213.32 | $336 | +$122.68 | 64% 1925-1072 (2997) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 27.2¢ | $421 | — | -$363 | 58% 5031-3699 (8730) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 70.5¢ | $195.39 | $197.78 | +$2.39 | 59% 3783-2578 (6361) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.5¢ | $139.47 | $197.78 | +$58.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.4¢ | $55.91 | — | -$55.91 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 82.3¢ | $152.43 | $165.1 | +$14.16 | 52% 874-813 (1687) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $149.34 | $127.7 | -$21.64 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.3¢ | $88.52 | $127.7 | +$39.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.6¢ | $60.82 | — | -$60.82 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 37.8¢ | $362.14 | — | -$362.14 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 54.1¢ | $131.62 | $130 | -$1.62 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.1¢ | $70.3 | $130 | +$59.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.7¢ | $61.32 | — | -$61.32 | |
BO bosona | Upavg 99.9¢ | $120.56 | $93.6 | -$26.96 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
 gabigol<$100 | Upavg 93.9¢ | $87.31 | $90.8 | +$3.49 | 49% 267-281 (548) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $108.3 | $80 | -$23.21 | 56% 307-237 (544) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Downavg 36.7¢ | $37.42 | — | -$37.42 | 49% 883-907 (1790) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $31.04 | $32 | +$0.96 | 50% 2462-2507 (4969) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 78.2¢ | $23.1 | $29.55 | +$6.45 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.5¢ | $13.03 | — | -$13.03 | 52% 2738-2492 (5230) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.6¢ | $21.74 | — | -$21.74 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $7.05 | $12.59 | +$5.54 | 38% 670-1098 (1768) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $3.7 | $10 | +$6.3 | 48% 2195-2413 (4608) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $2.04 | $6 | +$3.96 | 42% 1736-2377 (4113) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 39.2¢ | $364 | — | -$364 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
Invested
$1,663.75
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$22.16
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,407.74
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$62.31
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Invested
$1,533.04
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$242.14
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$521.62
Value
$495.49
PnL
+$0.34
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Both legs:
Invested
$266.97
Value
$423.14
PnL
+$156.17
Record
58%
3692-2676 (6368)
Invested
$381.36
Value
$284.23
PnL
-$63.64
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Both legs:
Invested
$213.32
Value
$336
PnL
+$122.68
Record
64%
1925-1072 (2997)
Invested
$421
Value
—
PnL
-$363
Record
58%
5031-3699 (8730)
Invested
$195.39
Value
$197.78
PnL
+$2.39
Record
59%
3783-2578 (6361)
Both legs:
Invested
$152.43
Value
$165.1
PnL
+$14.16
Record
52%
874-813 (1687)
Invested
$149.34
Value
$127.7
PnL
-$21.64
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Both legs:
Invested
$362.14
Value
—
PnL
-$362.14
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$131.62
Value
$130
PnL
-$1.62
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.56
Value
$93.6
PnL
-$26.96
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
gabigol<$100Invested
$87.31
Value
$90.8
PnL
+$3.49
Record
49%
267-281 (548)
Invested
$108.3
Value
$80
PnL
-$23.21
Record
56%
307-237 (544)
Invested
$37.42
Value
—
PnL
-$37.42
Record
49%
883-907 (1790)
Invested
$31.04
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.96
Record
50%
2462-2507 (4969)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$29.55
PnL
+$6.45
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$13.03
Value
—
PnL
-$13.03
Record
52%
2738-2492 (5230)
Invested
$21.74
Value
—
PnL
-$21.74
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$12.59
PnL
+$5.54
Record
38%
670-1098 (1768)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.3
Record
48%
2195-2413 (4608)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$6
PnL
+$3.96
Record
42%
1736-2377 (4113)
Invested
$364
Value
—
PnL
-$364
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.7K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $423.14
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RLWG
Up — $336
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Up — $165.1