Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$337.61

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 97.5¢

+49% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 18 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,729

Combined PnL+$338.81

Up3 traders

Total Value$9.17

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$1.2

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 63.5¢	$402.28	$515.63	+$146.87	47% 1027-1156 (2183)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$508.8	$497.29	+$2.29	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$291.55	+$49.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$252.8	$205.74	-$47.06
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 64.1¢	$254.82	$208.08	+$40.26	58% 5021-3684 (8705)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 35.4¢	$514.16	$196.74	-$311.34	50% 507-506 (1013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.4¢	$86.8	$120.39	+$33.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$416.02	$76.34	-$344.93
ST stepahead	Downavg 70.6¢	$166.57	$170.56	+$3.99	55% 4430-3604 (8034)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 64.1¢	$100.66	$146.8	+$46.14	58% 3662-2648 (6310)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 70.4¢	$98.11	$132.05	+$33.94	52% 867-805 (1672)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 55.5¢	$125.96	$123.74	+$3	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
BO bosona	Downavg 66.8¢	$76.72	$107.99	+$31.27	51% 4683-4502 (9185)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$39.75	$69.35	+$29.6	47% 180-202 (382)
gabigol<$100	Downavg 83.7¢	$42.91	$43.31	+$0.4	49% 265-278 (543)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 84¢	$42.49	$35.43	-$7.06	49% 878-905 (1783)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 73¢	$25.55	$32.73	+$7.18	47% 2109-2347 (4456)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$61.72	$29.77	-$0.72	63% 4066-2434 (6500)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.4¢	$25	$27.35	+$2.35	67% 3450-1707 (5157)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$12.68	$13.91	+$1.23	65% 2454-1338 (3792)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 59¢	$8.85	$9.23	+$0.38	51% 1438-1373 (2811)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$6.92	$7.94	+$1.02	38% 659-1077 (1736)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 25.5¢	$3.06	$0.78	-$2.28	42% 1711-2331 (4042)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$0.4	$0.45	+$0.05	48% 2164-2388 (4552)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$402.28

Value

$515.63

PnL

+$146.87

Record

47%

1027-1156 (2183)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.8

Value

$497.29

PnL

+$2.29

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

Both legs:

Invested

$254.82

Value

$208.08

PnL

+$40.26

Record

58%

5021-3684 (8705)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$514.16

Value

$196.74

PnL

-$311.34

Record

50%

507-506 (1013)

Both legs:

Down$86.867.4¢+$33.59

Up$416.0235.4¢-$344.93

stepahead

Down

Invested

$166.57

Value

$170.56

PnL

+$3.99

Record

55%

4430-3604 (8034)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$100.66

Value

$146.8

PnL

+$46.14

Record

58%

3662-2648 (6310)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$98.11

Value

$132.05

PnL

+$33.94

Record

52%

867-805 (1672)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$125.96

Value

$123.74

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

bosona

Down

Invested

$76.72

Value

$107.99

PnL

+$31.27

Record

51%

4683-4502 (9185)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$39.75

Value

$69.35

PnL

+$29.6

Record

47%

180-202 (382)

gabigol<$100

Down

Invested

$42.91

Value

$43.31

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

265-278 (543)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$42.49

Value

$35.43

PnL

-$7.06

Record

49%

878-905 (1783)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$25.55

Value

$32.73

PnL

+$7.18

Record

47%

2109-2347 (4456)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$61.72

Value

$29.77

PnL

-$0.72

Record

63%

4066-2434 (6500)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$25

Value

$27.35

PnL

+$2.35

Record

67%

3450-1707 (5157)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$12.68

Value

$13.91

PnL

+$1.23

Record

65%

2454-1338 (3792)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$8.85

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

1438-1373 (2811)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$7.94

PnL

+$1.02

Record

38%

659-1077 (1736)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$2.28

Record

42%

1711-2331 (4042)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2164-2388 (4552)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 18 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.