Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Up 53%
2 arb excluded
$6.3K
-$943.91
Smart Money Signal
18 of 34 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 74.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$70.3 | 47% 1027-1156 (2183) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $663.99 | $1.1K | +$459.19 | 50% 507-506 (1013) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 89.8¢ | $1.2K | $964.33 | -$86.4 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 67.7¢ | $538.32 | $794.94 | +$256.62 | 58% 3662-2648 (6310) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $521.32 | $486.14 | -$3.28 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $241.26 | $486.14 | +$249.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $253.32 | — | -$252.3 | |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99.4¢ | $616.96 | $348.88 | -$183.19 | 51% 1429-1393 (2822) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 34.2¢ | $288.35 | $255.04 | -$33.31 | 55% 4430-3604 (8034) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.3¢ | $112.96 | $255.04 | +$142.08 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.2¢ | $175.39 | — | -$175.39 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $242.55 | $245 | +$2.45 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 36¢ | $210.45 | — | -$172.53 | 58% 5021-3684 (8705) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 49.7¢ | $84.93 | $107 | +$22.07 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 79.7¢ | $134.69 | $113.56 | -$16.08 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 90.2¢ | $165.08 | $112.25 | -$44.45 | 57% 298-228 (526) |
AA aaa221 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $179.35 | $104.32 | -$67.94 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 29¢ | $232.77 | — | -$232.77 | 51% 1438-1373 (2811) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $86.11 | — | -$86.11 | 49% 878-905 (1783) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 85.8¢ | $68.96 | $66.64 | -$1.41 | 67% 3450-1707 (5157) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 45.4¢ | $35.37 | $63.6 | +$31.18 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 44.5¢ | $31.78 | $68 | +$36.22 | 47% 2109-2347 (4456) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 22¢ | $110 | — | -$110 | 64% 1920-1068 (2988) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $58.84 | $111.57 | +$52.73 | 51% 1919-1881 (3800) |
 gabigolCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.1¢ | $19.8 | — | -$19.8 | 49% 265-278 (543) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 94¢ | $112.66 | $30 | +$2.75 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $10.82 | $24 | +$13.18 | 59% 1030-707 (1737) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $16.09 | — | -$16.09 | 50% 823-817 (1640) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $18.5 | — | -$18.5 | 48% 1276-1362 (2638) |
Invested
$1,292.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$70.3
Record
47%
1027-1156 (2183)
Invested
$663.99
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$459.19
Record
50%
507-506 (1013)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,182.06
Value
$964.33
PnL
-$86.4
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$538.32
Value
$794.94
PnL
+$256.62
Record
58%
3662-2648 (6310)
Invested
$521.32
Value
$486.14
PnL
-$3.28
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Both legs:
Invested
$616.96
Value
$348.88
PnL
-$183.19
Record
51%
1429-1393 (2822)
Invested
$288.35
Value
$255.04
PnL
-$33.31
Record
55%
4430-3604 (8034)
Both legs:
Invested
$242.55
Value
$245
PnL
+$2.45
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Invested
$210.45
Value
—
PnL
-$172.53
Record
58%
5021-3684 (8705)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$84.93
Value
$107
PnL
+$22.07
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
Invested
$134.69
Value
$113.56
PnL
-$16.08
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$165.08
Value
$112.25
PnL
-$44.45
Record
57%
298-228 (526)
Invested
$179.35
Value
$104.32
PnL
-$67.94
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
Invested
$232.77
Value
—
PnL
-$232.77
Record
51%
1438-1373 (2811)
Invested
$86.11
Value
—
PnL
-$86.11
Record
49%
878-905 (1783)
Invested
$68.96
Value
$66.64
PnL
-$1.41
Record
67%
3450-1707 (5157)
Invested
$35.37
Value
$63.6
PnL
+$31.18
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
ohioism<$100Invested
$31.78
Value
$68
PnL
+$36.22
Record
47%
2109-2347 (4456)
Invested
$110
Value
—
PnL
-$110
Record
64%
1920-1068 (2988)
Invested
$58.84
Value
$111.57
PnL
+$52.73
Record
51%
1919-1881 (3800)
gabigolCTR<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
—
PnL
-$19.8
Record
49%
265-278 (543)
Invested
$112.66
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.75
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
Invested
$10.82
Value
$24
PnL
+$13.18
Record
59%
1030-707 (1737)
Invested
$16.09
Value
—
PnL
-$16.09
Record
50%
823-817 (1640)
Invested
$18.5
Value
—
PnL
-$18.5
Record
48%
1276-1362 (2638)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.2K
aswfadq1555
Up — $1.1K
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $964.33
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $794.94
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Up — $348.88
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $245
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $107