Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$715.07

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 38 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,233

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,224

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 66.7¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$19.83	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 40.6¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K	50% 502-503 (1005)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 49.1¢	$651.81	$1.2K	+$598.12	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
AL almach	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$609.72	+$324.14	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$529.32	$495	+$3.15	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$247.08	$495	+$251.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$247.83	—	-$247.9
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 45.2¢	$240	$475.32	+$235.31	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
RL RLWG	Downavg 49.3¢	$370.37	$751.89	+$381.52	64% 1919-1065 (2984)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 58.2¢	$406.2	$437	+$38.36	58% 5007-3677 (8684)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$426.48	$431.14	+$4.66	98% 3774-79 (3853)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 93.5¢	$1.3K	$390	-$196.8	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 31.7¢	$232.38	—	-$227.22	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 62.3¢	$209.89	$230	+$20.11	49% 878-901 (1779)
LI Little-big	Downavg 49.2¢	$98.38	$200.07	+$101.69	51% 976-932 (1908)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$188.05	$210	+$21.95	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$136.6	$210	+$73.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$51.45	—	-$51.45
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 47.6¢	$109.44	$223.86	+$114.42	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 92.4¢	$135.58	$125	-$10.58	52% 857-800 (1657)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 56.1¢	$95.75	$166.54	+$70.78	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
BoneOhio	Downavg 41¢	$45.51	$111.01	+$65.5	71% 1607-666 (2273)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 72¢	$75	$104.17	+$29.17	43% 291-383 (674)
MO mo-money	Downavg 99.5¢	$540.03	$91.46	+$153.92	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 92.1¢	$71.56	$74.51	+$2.95	67% 3426-1692 (5118)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$33.47	$70.03	+$36.56	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 47.2¢	$111.64	—	-$111.64	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 45¢	$29.55	$65.65	+$36.1	48% 1266-1353 (2619)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 47.5¢	$57	$120	+$63	57% 289-221 (510)