Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$310.81

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 28 top traders (79%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,274

Combined PnL+$394.8

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,906

Combined PnL-$83.99

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 98.4¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	+$2.84	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 84.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$174.14	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$190.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 1.7¢	$15.94	—	-$15.94
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 74.6¢	$681.97	$510.73	-$31.71	58% 5007-3677 (8684)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$516.07	$491.17	+$1.66	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$249	—	-$248.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$249	$491.17	+$250.26
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 2.5¢	$149.94	—	+$80.78	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 69¢	$276	$400	+$124	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$227.01	$253.59	+$26.58	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.5¢	$48.44	—	-$48.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.4¢	$178.57	$253.59	+$75.02
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 48.2¢	$181.22	$352.16	+$177.83	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
gabigolARB<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$250.28	$285.46	+$35.19	49% 263-276 (539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$4	—	-$4
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.3¢	$246.28	$285.46	+$39.19
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 80.2¢	$256.87	$272.99	+$16.11	49% 878-901 (1779)
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.1¢	$37.94	—	-$37.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.2¢	$218.93	$272.99	+$54.06
AL almach	Downavg 99.8¢	$826.39	$263.45	-$21.09	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 91.4¢	$375.52	$410.98	+$35.46	52% 2695-2461 (5156)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 80¢	$875.41	$177.12	-$10.92	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$53.03	$60	+$6.97	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 94.5¢	$407.55	$120.82	-$21.73	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$33.2	$55	+$21.8	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.7¢	$8.25	—	-$8.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$24.95	$55	+$30.05
AS asdaefef	Downavg 93.9¢	$138.18	$109.28	+$0.99	67% 3426-1692 (5118)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$37.28	$81.5	+$44.22	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$58.02	$70.51	+$12.49	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 82.3¢	$105.28	$125.65	+$22.14	57% 289-221 (510)
MO mo-money	Downavg 99.5¢	$197.28	$60.42	+$43.97	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 97.5¢	$60.92	$61.36	+$0.44	65% 2432-1333 (3765)
└ Down leg	Downavg 97.5¢	$59.84	$61.36	+$1.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 2¢	$1.08	—	-$1.08
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 69¢	$22.38	$30	+$7.62	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 86¢	$89	$103.49	+$14.49	43% 291-383 (674)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 97¢	$97.67	$54.36	-$39.54	59% 3720-2542 (6262)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$2,307.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$2.84

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,067.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$174.14

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

Both legs:

Down$1,051.6484.7¢+$190.08

Up$15.941.7¢-$15.94

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$681.97

Value

$510.73

PnL

-$31.71

Record

58%

5007-3677 (8684)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$516.07

Value

$491.17

PnL

+$1.66

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Up$24949.8¢-$248.6

Down$24950.7¢+$250.26

bosonaCTR

Invested

$149.94

Value

—

PnL

+$80.78

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$276

Value

$400

PnL

+$124

Record

49%

2276-2326 (4602)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$227.01

Value

$253.59

PnL

+$26.58

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

Both legs:

Up$48.449.5¢-$48.44

Down$178.5770.4¢+$75.02

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$181.22

Value

$352.16

PnL

+$177.83

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

gabigolARB<$100

Down

Invested

$250.28

Value

$285.46

PnL

+$35.19

Record

49%

263-276 (539)

Both legs:

Up$41¢-$4

Down$246.2886.3¢+$39.19

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$256.87

Value

$272.99

PnL

+$16.11

Record

49%

878-901 (1779)

Both legs:

Up$37.9412.1¢-$37.94

Down$218.9380.2¢+$54.06

almach

Down

Invested

$826.39

Value

$263.45

PnL

-$21.09

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$375.52

Value

$410.98

PnL

+$35.46

Record

52%

2695-2461 (5156)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$875.41

Value

$177.12

PnL

-$10.92

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$53.03

Value

$60

PnL

+$6.97

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$407.55

Value

$120.82

PnL

-$21.73

Record

58%

3639-2637 (6276)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$33.2

Value

$55

PnL

+$21.8

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

Both legs:

Up$8.254.7¢-$8.25

Down$24.9545.4¢+$30.05

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$138.18

Value

$109.28

PnL

+$0.99

Record

67%

3426-1692 (5118)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$37.28

Value

$81.5

PnL

+$44.22

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$58.02

Value

$70.51

PnL

+$12.49

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$105.28

Value

$125.65

PnL

+$22.14

Record

57%

289-221 (510)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$197.28

Value

$60.42

PnL

+$43.97

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$60.92

Value

$61.36

PnL

+$0.44

Record

65%

2432-1333 (3765)

Both legs:

Down$59.8497.5¢+$1.52

Up$1.082¢-$1.08

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$22.38

Value

$30

PnL

+$7.62

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$89

Value

$103.49

PnL

+$14.49

Record

43%

291-383 (674)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$97.67

Value

$54.36

PnL

-$39.54

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 28 top traders (79%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7b60e696...5e3dd8

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794689100

Traders in this Market

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $1.2K

+$2.84

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$174.14

Hcrystallash

Down — $510.73

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $400

+$124

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$26.58

CrouchPredictions

Down — $352.16

gabigol

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded