Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 59%
3 arb excluded
$12.5K
$169.2
Smart Money Signal
22 of 37 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 71¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$72.62 | 50% 499-500 (999) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 62.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | +$212.46 | 50% 2267-2294 (4561) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$19.96 | 98% 3730-79 (3809) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 65.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$235.14 | 58% 4999-3667 (8666) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$53.84 | 52% 850-794 (1644) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 74.4¢ | $910.82 | $866.29 | -$44.53 | 47% 1012-1142 (2154) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $545.93 | $491.51 | +$3.65 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $244.15 | $491.51 | +$255.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $251.2 | — | -$251.42 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.3¢ | $542.27 | $480.58 | -$47.84 | 55% 4411-3594 (8005) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 34.1¢ | $410.87 | $235.94 | -$174.93 | 51% 4658-4490 (9148) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.1¢ | $250.95 | — | -$250.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.8¢ | $159.92 | $235.94 | +$76.02 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 71.2¢ | $440.01 | $405.51 | -$18.22 | 50% 4423-4495 (8918) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 66.6¢ | $215.66 | $323.62 | +$107.97 | 58% 3629-2629 (6258) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 7.8¢ | $175 | — | -$175 | 64% 1916-1064 (2980) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $176.27 | $192.43 | +$16.16 | 52% 2196-2051 (4247) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.9¢ | $74.3 | — | -$74.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53¢ | $101.97 | $192.43 | +$90.46 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51.5¢ | $103 | $200 | +$97 | 51% 972-925 (1897) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 35¢ | $180.64 | — | -$180.64 | 50% 1405-1380 (2785) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 34¢ | $601.22 | — | -$135.96 | 51% 1414-1359 (2773) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 74.9¢ | $131.25 | $175.29 | +$44.04 | 71% 1595-654 (2249) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 47¢ | $70.5 | $130 | +$78.9 | 56% 278-219 (497) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 67.3¢ | $79.25 | $100 | +$20.75 | 44% 2080-2676 (4756) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $78.98 | $83.15 | +$8.33 | 51% 5011-4721 (9732) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 70.1¢ | $76.39 | $70 | -$6.39 | 47% 2079-2312 (4391) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $82.73 | $61.27 | +$24.89 | 59% 3698-2531 (6229) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $49 | $51.04 | +$2.04 | 43% 289-383 (672) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $30.13 | $41.26 | +$11.13 | 67% 3403-1682 (5085) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $36.75 | $73.5 | +$36.75 | 47% 176-199 (375) |
Invested
$1,979.39
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$72.62
Record
50%
499-500 (999)
Invested
$2,062.23
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$212.46
Record
50%
2267-2294 (4561)
Invested
$1,838.69
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$19.96
Record
98%
3730-79 (3809)
Invested
$1,198.09
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$235.14
Record
58%
4999-3667 (8666)
Invested
$1,132.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$53.84
Record
52%
850-794 (1644)
Invested
$910.82
Value
$866.29
PnL
-$44.53
Record
47%
1012-1142 (2154)
Invested
$545.93
Value
$491.51
PnL
+$3.65
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Both legs:
Invested
$542.27
Value
$480.58
PnL
-$47.84
Record
55%
4411-3594 (8005)
Invested
$410.87
Value
$235.94
PnL
-$174.93
Record
51%
4658-4490 (9148)
Both legs:
Invested
$440.01
Value
$405.51
PnL
-$18.22
Record
50%
4423-4495 (8918)
Invested
$215.66
Value
$323.62
PnL
+$107.97
Record
58%
3629-2629 (6258)
Invested
$175
Value
—
PnL
-$175
Record
64%
1916-1064 (2980)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$176.27
Value
$192.43
PnL
+$16.16
Record
52%
2196-2051 (4247)
Both legs:
Invested
$103
Value
$200
PnL
+$97
Record
51%
972-925 (1897)
Invested
$180.64
Value
—
PnL
-$180.64
Record
50%
1405-1380 (2785)
Invested
$601.22
Value
—
PnL
-$135.96
Record
51%
1414-1359 (2773)
BoneOhioInvested
$131.25
Value
$175.29
PnL
+$44.04
Record
71%
1595-654 (2249)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$130
PnL
+$78.9
Record
56%
278-219 (497)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$79.25
Value
$100
PnL
+$20.75
Record
44%
2080-2676 (4756)
Invested
$78.98
Value
$83.15
PnL
+$8.33
Record
51%
5011-4721 (9732)
ohioism<$100Invested
$76.39
Value
$70
PnL
-$6.39
Record
47%
2079-2312 (4391)
Invested
$82.73
Value
$61.27
PnL
+$24.89
Record
59%
3698-2531 (6229)
Invested
$49
Value
$51.04
PnL
+$2.04
Record
43%
289-383 (672)
Invested
$30.13
Value
$41.26
PnL
+$11.13
Record
67%
3403-1682 (5085)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
$73.5
PnL
+$36.75
Record
47%
176-199 (375)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
Down — $2.0K
uninformedfloww
Down — $2.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.9K
Hcrystallash
Down — $1.4K
EZTRADENL2
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $866.29
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $480.58
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $405.51