Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 57%
2 arb excluded
$6.0K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 29 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$19.73 | 98% 3730-79 (3809) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 60.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$95.66 | 47% 1012-1142 (2154) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $503.47 | $497.83 | -$2.45 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $251.17 | — | -$251.17 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $246.28 | $497.83 | +$248.73 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 53.3¢ | $447.13 | $466.34 | +$116.18 | 58% 4999-3667 (8666) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 63.4¢ | $468.02 | $121.5 | -$346.53 | 50% 499-500 (999) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.4¢ | $416.91 | — | -$416.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.1¢ | $51.12 | $121.5 | +$70.38 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 82.5¢ | $273.14 | $331.26 | +$58.12 | 58% 3629-2629 (6258) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 77¢ | $438.67 | — | -$438.67 | 51% 4658-4490 (9148) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 56.6¢ | $335.75 | $324.55 | -$11.2 | 55% 4411-3594 (8005) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $332.77 | $294.71 | -$38.06 | 52% 850-794 (1644) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $250.41 | $250.66 | +$0.25 | 52% 1393-1291 (2684) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 80.8¢ | $226.39 | $242.53 | +$22.44 | 50% 2267-2294 (4561) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 61.1¢ | $401.49 | $240.43 | -$19.84 | 52% 2196-2051 (4247) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $208.42 | $120 | -$60.54 | 56% 278-219 (497) |
 gabigol<$100 | Downavg 90.8¢ | $91.51 | $96 | +$4.49 | 49% 262-275 (537) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 60.3¢ | $449.62 | — | -$313.5 | 50% 1405-1380 (2785) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $39.03 | $83.85 | +$44.82 | 51% 5011-4721 (9732) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 32.3¢ | $319.7 | — | -$121.23 | 51% 1414-1359 (2773) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 39.1¢ | $31.88 | $64.18 | +$32.3 | 47% 2079-2312 (4391) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $41 | $43.64 | +$5.44 | 67% 3403-1682 (5085) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $21.94 | — | -$20.96 | 63% 4009-2399 (6408) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $33.1 | — | -$33.1 | 44% 2080-2676 (4756) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $30.22 | — | -$30.22 | 50% 4423-4495 (8918) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $13.83 | — | -$13.83 | 48% 2176-2405 (4581) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 41.9¢ | $8.71 | $16 | +$7.29 | 48% 2136-2349 (4485) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $9.81 | — | -$9.81 | 50% 2409-2440 (4849) |
Invested
$1,676.26
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$19.73
Record
98%
3730-79 (3809)
Invested
$1,043.24
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$95.66
Record
47%
1012-1142 (2154)
Invested
$503.47
Value
$497.83
PnL
-$2.45
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Both legs:
Invested
$447.13
Value
$466.34
PnL
+$116.18
Record
58%
4999-3667 (8666)
Invested
$468.02
Value
$121.5
PnL
-$346.53
Record
50%
499-500 (999)
Both legs:
Invested
$273.14
Value
$331.26
PnL
+$58.12
Record
58%
3629-2629 (6258)
Invested
$438.67
Value
—
PnL
-$438.67
Record
51%
4658-4490 (9148)
Invested
$335.75
Value
$324.55
PnL
-$11.2
Record
55%
4411-3594 (8005)
Invested
$332.77
Value
$294.71
PnL
-$38.06
Record
52%
850-794 (1644)
Invested
$250.41
Value
$250.66
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
1393-1291 (2684)
Invested
$226.39
Value
$242.53
PnL
+$22.44
Record
50%
2267-2294 (4561)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$401.49
Value
$240.43
PnL
-$19.84
Record
52%
2196-2051 (4247)
Invested
$208.42
Value
$120
PnL
-$60.54
Record
56%
278-219 (497)
gabigol<$100Invested
$91.51
Value
$96
PnL
+$4.49
Record
49%
262-275 (537)
Invested
$449.62
Value
—
PnL
-$313.5
Record
50%
1405-1380 (2785)
Invested
$39.03
Value
$83.85
PnL
+$44.82
Record
51%
5011-4721 (9732)
Invested
$319.7
Value
—
PnL
-$121.23
Record
51%
1414-1359 (2773)
ohioism<$100Invested
$31.88
Value
$64.18
PnL
+$32.3
Record
47%
2079-2312 (4391)
Invested
$41
Value
$43.64
PnL
+$5.44
Record
67%
3403-1682 (5085)
Invested
$21.94
Value
—
PnL
-$20.96
Record
63%
4009-2399 (6408)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$33.1
Value
—
PnL
-$33.1
Record
44%
2080-2676 (4756)
Invested
$30.22
Value
—
PnL
-$30.22
Record
50%
4423-4495 (8918)
Invested
$13.83
Value
—
PnL
-$13.83
Record
48%
2176-2405 (4581)
Invested
$8.71
Value
$16
PnL
+$7.29
Record
48%
2136-2349 (4485)
Invested
$9.81
Value
—
PnL
-$9.81
Record
50%
2409-2440 (4849)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.7K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Down — $466.34
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $331.26
bosona
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $324.55
EZTRADENL2
Down — $294.71
0x50f7
Down — $250.66