Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$165.54

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,092

Combined PnL+$66.43

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,208

Combined PnL-$231.97

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.12	98% 3730-79 (3809)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 90.1¢	$739.12	$690.93	-$25.39	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$501.8	$490	-$4.1	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$251.8	—	-$251.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$247.7
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 94.4¢	$397.47	$395.67	-$1.81	52% 850-794 (1644)
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.1¢	$24.11	—	-$24.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 94.4¢	$373.37	$395.67	+$22.3
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 93.4¢	$347.3	$372	+$24.7	58% 3629-2629 (6258)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$380.72	$264.44	+$13.54	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.6¢	$83.2	—	-$70.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.6¢	$176.19	$264.44	+$83.62
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$440	$444.44	+$4.44	50% 1907-1871 (3778)
gabigolARB<$100	Downavg 92¢	$229.03	$247.09	+$18.07	49% 262-275 (537)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92¢	$227.43	$247.09	+$19.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 1.3¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$139.76	$220.81	+$81.05	50% 499-500 (999)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$124.07	$220.81	+$96.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.3¢	$15.69	—	-$15.69
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 43¢	$117.1	—	-$117.1	51% 972-925 (1897)
BoneOhio	Downavg 95¢	$95	$100	+$5	71% 1595-654 (2249)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 96¢	$61.13	$58	-$3.13	51% 4658-4490 (9148)
└ Up leg	Upavg 4¢	$5.45	—	-$5.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 96¢	$55.68	$58	+$2.32
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$37.71	—	-$37.71	55% 4411-3594 (8005)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$95.88	$82.8	+$6.9	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 84.3¢	$105.64	$125.29	+$19.65	56% 278-219 (497)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$25.8	$30.17	+$4.37	67% 3403-1682 (5085)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 84¢	$27.65	$25	-$2.65	48% 2136-2349 (4485)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 58¢	$25.06	$20	-$2.96	63% 4009-2399 (6408)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 77¢	$18.81	$20.22	+$1.41	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 10.1¢	$186.82	—	-$45.28	58% 4999-3667 (8666)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$5.4	—	-$5.4	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 83¢	$24.9	$30	+$5.1	51% 5011-4721 (9732)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 73¢	$19.7	$27	+$7.3	48% 2176-2405 (4581)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 96¢	$7.98	$6	-$1.98	50% 2409-2440 (4849)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$11.43	—	-$11.43	49% 875-899 (1774)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,091.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.12

Record

98%

3730-79 (3809)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$739.12

Value

$690.93

PnL

-$25.39

Record

47%

1012-1142 (2154)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$501.8

Value

$490

PnL

-$4.1

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Invested

$397.47

Value

$395.67

PnL

-$1.81

Record

52%

850-794 (1644)

Both legs:

Up$24.116.1¢-$24.11

Down$373.3794.4¢+$22.3

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$347.3

Value

$372

PnL

+$24.7

Record

58%

3629-2629 (6258)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$380.72

Value

$264.44

PnL

+$13.54

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

Both legs:

Up$83.231.6¢-$70.08

Down$176.1966.6¢+$83.62

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$440

Value

$444.44

PnL

+$4.44

Record

50%

1907-1871 (3778)

gabigolARB<$100

Down

Invested

$229.03

Value

$247.09

PnL

+$18.07

Record

49%

262-275 (537)

Both legs:

Down$227.4392¢+$19.66

Up$1.61.3¢-$1.6

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$139.76

Value

$220.81

PnL

+$81.05

Record

50%

499-500 (999)

Both legs:

Down$124.0756.2¢+$96.74

Up$15.6911.3¢-$15.69

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$117.1

Value

—

PnL

-$117.1

Record

51%

972-925 (1897)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$95

Value

$100

PnL

+$5

Record

71%

1595-654 (2249)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61.13

Value

$58

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

4658-4490 (9148)

Both legs:

Up$5.454¢-$5.45

Down$55.6896¢+$2.32

stepaheadCTR<$100

Invested

$37.71

Value

—

PnL

-$37.71

Record

55%

4411-3594 (8005)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$95.88

Value

$82.8

PnL

+$6.9

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$105.64

Value

$125.29

PnL

+$19.65

Record

56%

278-219 (497)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$25.8

Value

$30.17

PnL

+$4.37

Record

67%

3403-1682 (5085)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$27.65

Value

$25

PnL

-$2.65

Record

48%

2136-2349 (4485)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$25.06

Value

$20

PnL

-$2.96

Record

63%

4009-2399 (6408)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$18.81

Value

$20.22

PnL

+$1.41

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$186.82

Value

—

PnL

-$45.28

Record

58%

4999-3667 (8666)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

—

PnL

-$5.4

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$24.9

Value

$30

PnL

+$5.1

Record

51%

5011-4721 (9732)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$19.7

Value

$27

PnL

+$7.3

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$7.98

Value

PnL

-$1.98

Record

50%

2409-2440 (4849)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Invested

$11.43

Value

—

PnL

-$11.43

Record

49%

875-899 (1774)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x19e0e8ea...c33521

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794685500

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$20.12

CrouchPredictions

Down — $690.93

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $372

+$24.7

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.54

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $444.44

gabigol

Arbitrage — excluded

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

Little-big

Up — $0