Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

15 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Up (58%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$3.21

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 26 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,008

Combined PnL+$371.16

Down11 traders

Total Value$693.7

Total Shares2,413

Combined PnL-$367.95

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.74	98% 3678-79 (3757)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 54.7¢	$548.45	$578.95	+$30.5	50% 493-498 (991)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$512.76	$498.75	+$2.65	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$244.81	$338.1	+$94.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$253.01	$160.65	-$92.15
MO mo-money	Upavg 52¢	$261.64	$451.1	+$189.46	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 30.3¢	$447.73	$300.52	-$137.62	58% 4990-3651 (8641)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 41.9¢	$383.11	$289.29	-$93.83	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$142.67	$200.27	+$57.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$240.44	$89.02	-$151.42
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 68.7¢	$198.51	$209	+$61.02	58% 3619-2623 (6242)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 55.4¢	$373.17	$202.33	-$168.76	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$156.67	$129.85	-$26.81	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$79.13	$102.14	+$23.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$77.54	$27.71	-$49.83
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 56.1¢	$59	$105.06	+$46.06	48% 2113-2329 (4442)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 27¢	$65.27	$72.63	+$7.36	49% 875-893 (1768)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$28.4	$50.1	+$21.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$36.87	$22.53	-$14.34
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 30.7¢	$71.1	$70.38	-$0.72	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$26.41	$40.53	+$14.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.7¢	$44.69	$29.85	-$14.84
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Downavg 24.6¢	$64.72	$49.98	-$14.75	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 16.7¢	$47.96	$46.99	-$0.96	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$41.5	$36.33	-$5.17	56% 267-213 (480)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 69.3¢	$28.03	$35.81	+$9.47	67% 3366-1674 (5040)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 59¢	$17.69	$29.95	+$12.26	57% 131-99 (230)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 85¢	$31.95	$28.66	-$3.28	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 92¢	$29.64	$26.29	-$3.35	51% 836-790 (1626)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 54¢	$23.84	$24.59	+$0.75	47% 2060-2289 (4349)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 52¢	$16.28	$23.18	+$6.9	51% 4998-4717 (9715)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$22.2	$21.3	-$0.9	44% 2059-2654 (4713)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$15.89	$15.28	-$0.61	38% 632-1052 (1684)
gabigolCTR<$100	Downavg 2.1¢	$10.44	$12.3	+$1.86	49% 259-274 (533)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$11.59	$12.05	+$0.46	64% 2389-1316 (3705)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,431.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.74

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$548.45

Value

$578.95

PnL

+$30.5

Record

50%

493-498 (991)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$512.76

Value

$498.75

PnL

+$2.65

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Up$244.8150¢+$94.8

Down$253.0149.6¢-$92.15

mo-money

Invested

$261.64

Value

$451.1

PnL

+$189.46

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$447.73

Value

$300.52

PnL

-$137.62

Record

58%

4990-3651 (8641)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$383.11

Value

$289.29

PnL

-$93.83

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

Both legs:

Up$142.6760.2¢+$57.6

Down$240.4441.9¢-$151.42

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$198.51

Value

$209

PnL

+$61.02

Record

58%

3619-2623 (6242)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$373.17

Value

$202.33

PnL

-$168.76

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$156.67

Value

$129.85

PnL

-$26.81

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

Both legs:

Up$79.1365.5¢+$23.01

Down$77.5443.4¢-$49.83

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$59

Value

$105.06

PnL

+$46.06

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$65.27

Value

$72.63

PnL

+$7.36

Record

49%

875-893 (1768)

Both legs:

Up$28.447.3¢+$21.7

Down$36.8727¢-$14.34

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$71.1

Value

$70.38

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

Both legs:

Up$26.4151.8¢+$14.12

Down$44.6930.7¢-$14.84

stepaheadCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.72

Value

$49.98

PnL

-$14.75

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.96

Value

$46.99

PnL

-$0.96

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.5

Value

$36.33

PnL

-$5.17

Record

56%

267-213 (480)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$28.03

Value

$35.81

PnL

+$9.47

Record

67%

3366-1674 (5040)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$17.69

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$12.26

Record

57%

131-99 (230)

bosona<$100

Invested

$31.95

Value

$28.66

PnL

-$3.28

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$26.29

PnL

-$3.35

Record

51%

836-790 (1626)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$23.84

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

2060-2289 (4349)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$23.18

PnL

+$6.9

Record

51%

4998-4717 (9715)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.2

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$0.9

Record

44%

2059-2654 (4713)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$15.89

Value

$15.28

PnL

-$0.61

Record

38%

632-1052 (1684)

gabigolCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.44

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$1.86

Record

49%

259-274 (533)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$11.59

Value

$12.05

PnL

+$0.46

Record

64%

2389-1316 (3705)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 26 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.