Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 34 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,784

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,908

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$117.27	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 49.9¢	$605.8	$1.2K	+$608.12	43% 287-383 (670)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 74¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$356.65	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 38¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.3K	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 44¢	$977.23	—	-$977.23	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 49.3¢	$672.17	$734.24	+$100	58% 4990-3651 (8641)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$516.66	$491.97	+$10.42	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$243.29	—	-$241.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$244.54	$491.97	+$252.12
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 72.2¢	$442.28	$457.66	+$24.73	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 42.3¢	$798.01	—	-$780.79	50% 493-498 (991)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 71.1¢	$419.64	$407.56	-$12.08	51% 836-790 (1626)
NIULAI4	Downavg 76.8¢	$281.73	$367	+$85.27	27% 477-1262 (1739)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 76.5¢	$272.5	$356.34	+$83.84	36% 73-132 (205)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$1.0K	$438.02	+$17.94	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$243.11	$438.02	+$88.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.9¢	$90.94	—	-$70.56
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 45.3¢	$236.83	$244.03	+$7.2	51% 4998-4717 (9715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$106.12	$244.03	+$137.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$130.71	—	-$130.71
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$178.28	$235.55	+$57.27	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.2¢	$58.35	—	-$58.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$119.93	$235.55	+$115.62
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$221.17	$223.4	+$2.23	98% 3678-79 (3757)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 31.8¢	$141.18	—	-$93.83	47% 2060-2289 (4349)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$122.31	$76.7	-$45.61	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$81.82	—	-$81.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$40.49	$76.7	+$36.21
RL RLWG	Downavg 43.4¢	$132.76	$305.78	+$173.02	64% 1915-1061 (2976)
Atomforge	Downavg 69.7¢	$73.5	$105.51	+$32.01	26% 276-777 (1053)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 57.1¢	$249.83	—	-$217.51	58% 3619-2623 (6242)
MO mo-money	Downavg 48.3¢	$822.55	$552.89	+$317.58	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$41.8	—	-$41.8	44% 2059-2654 (4713)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 33.8¢	$70.3	$129.99	+$59.69	48% 2113-2329 (4442)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.5¢	$26.35	—	-$26.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$43.95	$129.99	+$86.04
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 34¢	$56.72	$70.37	+$38.97	62% 3967-2385 (6352)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,200.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$117.27

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$605.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$608.12

Record

43%

287-383 (670)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,682.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$356.65

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$1,475.62

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$977.23

Value

—

PnL

-$977.23

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$672.17

Value

$734.24

PnL

+$100

Record

58%

4990-3651 (8641)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$516.66

Value

$491.97

PnL

+$10.42

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Up$243.2949.7¢-$241.7

Down$244.5449.7¢+$252.12

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$442.28

Value

$457.66

PnL

+$24.73

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

aswfadq1555CTR

Invested

$798.01

Value

—

PnL

-$780.79

Record

50%

493-498 (991)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$419.64

Value

$407.56

PnL

-$12.08

Record

51%

836-790 (1626)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$281.73

Value

$367

PnL

+$85.27

Record

27%

477-1262 (1739)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$272.5

Value

$356.34

PnL

+$83.84

Record

36%

73-132 (205)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,006.96

Value

$438.02

PnL

+$17.94

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

Both legs:

Down$243.1155.5¢+$88.5

Up$90.9463.9¢-$70.56

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$236.83

Value

$244.03

PnL

+$7.2

Record

51%

4998-4717 (9715)

Both legs:

Down$106.1243.5¢+$137.9

Up$130.7145.3¢-$130.71

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$178.28

Value

$235.55

PnL

+$57.27

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

Both legs:

Up$58.3526.2¢-$58.35

Down$119.9350.9¢+$115.62

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$221.17

Value

$223.4

PnL

+$2.23

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$141.18

Value

—

PnL

-$93.83

Record

47%

2060-2289 (4349)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$122.31

Value

$76.7

PnL

-$45.61

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

Both legs:

Up$81.8250.2¢-$81.82

Down$40.4952.8¢+$36.21

RLWG

Down

Invested

$132.76

Value

$305.78

PnL

+$173.02

Record

64%

1915-1061 (2976)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$73.5

Value

$105.51

PnL

+$32.01

Record

26%

276-777 (1053)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$249.83

Value

—

PnL

-$217.51

Record

58%

3619-2623 (6242)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$822.55

Value

$552.89

PnL

+$317.58

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$41.8

Value

—

PnL

-$41.8

Record

44%

2059-2654 (4713)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.3

Value

$129.99

PnL

+$59.69

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

Both legs:

Up$26.3540.5¢-$26.35

Down$43.9533.8¢+$86.04

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$56.72

Value

$70.37

PnL

+$38.97

Record

62%

3967-2385 (6352)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 34 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7fdcddb4...005e64

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794683700

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.3K

+$117.27

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $1.2K

+$608.12

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.2K

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

stepahead

Up — $0

Hcrystallash

Down — $734.24

+$100

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$10.42

asdcaxz

Down — $457.66

+$24.73

aswfadq1555

CTR

Up — $0

-$780.79

EZTRADENL2

Down — $407.56

-$12.08

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