Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$648.43

Smart Money Signal

21 of 34 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,525

Combined PnL+$72.23

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,679

Combined PnL-$720.66

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$21.29	98% 3678-79 (3757)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$69.84	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 79.1¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$193.22	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$319.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$512.3	—	-$512.3
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$776.91	$777.69	+$0.78	52% 1380-1282 (2662)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 86.7¢	$594.37	$638.57	+$44.2	58% 3619-2623 (6242)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 87.2¢	$649.27	$528.82	-$119.56	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$511.43	$490.74	-$3.17	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$245.95	$490.74	+$248.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$250.86	—	-$251.86
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 64.7¢	$442.63	$380.52	+$57.28	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 76.2¢	$560.02	$342.9	-$102.03	58% 4990-3651 (8641)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 77.7¢	$296.99	$374.97	+$77.97	50% 493-498 (991)
RL RLWGCTR	Downavg 18¢	$250.14	—	-$250.14	64% 1915-1061 (2976)
BO bosona	Upavg 75.6¢	$245.08	$298.62	+$53.54	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 89.5¢	$257.34	$278.81	+$21.57	51% 836-790 (1626)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$143.64	$124.91	-$18.72	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.9¢	$93.53	$124.91	+$31.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.3¢	$50.11	—	-$50.11
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 23.9¢	$150.74	—	-$150.74	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 21.4¢	$160.49	—	-$131.93	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 81.8¢	$103.17	$126.13	+$22.96	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 81¢	$110.57	$128.1	+$19.44	56% 267-213 (480)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 20.6¢	$56.22	—	-$56.22	48% 2113-2329 (4442)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$56.06	$47.38	-$8.68	47% 2060-2289 (4349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$33.08	$47.38	+$14.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.7¢	$22.98	—	-$22.98
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 26.5¢	$41.1	—	-$41.1	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 75.3¢	$46.74	$51.8	+$5.06	67% 3366-1674 (5040)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$47.4	$40	-$7.4	49% 875-893 (1768)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 88.2¢	$28.22	$32	+$3.78	57% 131-99 (230)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$25.68	$50	+$24.32	50% 1894-1863 (3757)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,725.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$21.29

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,732.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$69.84

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$1,716.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$193.22

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

Both legs:

Up$1,204.4579.1¢+$319.08

Down$512.328.6¢-$512.3

0x50f7

Invested

$776.91

Value

$777.69

PnL

+$0.78

Record

52%

1380-1282 (2662)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$594.37

Value

$638.57

PnL

+$44.2

Record

58%

3619-2623 (6242)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$649.27

Value

$528.82

PnL

-$119.56

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$511.43

Value

$490.74

PnL

-$3.17

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Up$245.9550.1¢+$248.69

Down$250.8649.6¢-$251.86

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$442.63

Value

$380.52

PnL

+$57.28

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$560.02

Value

$342.9

PnL

-$102.03

Record

58%

4990-3651 (8641)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$296.99

Value

$374.97

PnL

+$77.97

Record

50%

493-498 (991)

RLWGCTR

Down

Invested

$250.14

Value

—

PnL

-$250.14

Record

64%

1915-1061 (2976)

bosona

Invested

$245.08

Value

$298.62

PnL

+$53.54

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$257.34

Value

$278.81

PnL

+$21.57

Record

51%

836-790 (1626)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$143.64

Value

$124.91

PnL

-$18.72

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

Both legs:

Up$93.5374.9¢+$31.38

Down$50.1119.3¢-$50.11

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$150.74

Value

—

PnL

-$150.74

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$160.49

Value

—

PnL

-$131.93

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

asdcaxz

Invested

$103.17

Value

$126.13

PnL

+$22.96

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

Alpharo28

Invested

$110.57

Value

$128.1

PnL

+$19.44

Record

56%

267-213 (480)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.22

Value

—

PnL

-$56.22

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$56.06

Value

$47.38

PnL

-$8.68

Record

47%

2060-2289 (4349)

Both legs:

Up$33.0869.8¢+$14.3

Down$22.9821.7¢-$22.98

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.1

Value

—

PnL

-$41.1

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$46.74

Value

$51.8

PnL

+$5.06

Record

67%

3366-1674 (5040)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$47.4

Value

$40

PnL

-$7.4

Record

49%

875-893 (1768)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$28.22

Value

$32

PnL

+$3.78

Record

57%

131-99 (230)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$25.68

Value

$50

PnL

+$24.32

Record

50%

1894-1863 (3757)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 34 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x592443aa...7f61f4

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794682800

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$21.29

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $1.7K

-$69.84

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$193.22

0x50f7

Up — $777.69

+$0.78

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $638.57

+$44.2

CrouchPredictions

Up — $528.82

-$119.56

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.17

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $380.52

+$57.28

Hcrystallash

Up — $342.9

-$102.03

aswfadq1555

Up — $374.97

+$77.97

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