Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 67%
4 arb excluded
$7.4K
-$940.1
Smart Money Signal
20 of 30 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$22.85 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 46.6¢ | $509.24 | $1.1K | +$558.29 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 49¢ | $987.76 | — | -$987.76 | 64% 1914-1059 (2973) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 62.4¢ | $782.37 | $798.34 | +$15.97 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
BO bosona | Upavg 76.2¢ | $522.06 | $680.86 | +$158.8 | 51% 4625-4478 (9103) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 50.7¢ | $806.24 | — | -$798.42 | 50% 488-495 (983) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $517.29 | $493.54 | -$0.45 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $245.95 | $493.54 | +$248.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $249.11 | — | -$249.28 | |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $510.85 | $462.48 | -$48.37 | 58% 4982-3643 (8625) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.8¢ | $304.44 | $462.48 | +$158.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.6¢ | $206.41 | — | -$206.41 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 41.2¢ | $293.54 | $408.36 | +$135.56 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $308.02 | $300.4 | -$7.61 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.7¢ | $191.5 | $300.4 | +$108.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.7¢ | $116.52 | — | -$116.52 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 73¢ | $322.22 | $300.36 | -$21.86 | 58% 3610-2614 (6224) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $160.15 | $183.68 | +$23.53 | 51% 829-786 (1615) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 66¢ | $155.55 | $148.56 | -$5.8 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 54.7¢ | $90.44 | $153 | +$62.56 | 51% 961-907 (1868) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 33.7¢ | $154.97 | — | -$154.97 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 63.6¢ | $124.8 | $131.27 | +$52.15 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $107.06 | $99 | -$8.06 | 49% 870-892 (1762) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.4¢ | $55.85 | $99 | +$43.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.5¢ | $51.21 | — | -$51.21 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $62.42 | $95 | +$32.58 | 47% 2135-2370 (4505) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $63.97 | $87.04 | +$23.07 | 56% 261-207 (468) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $44.65 | $75 | +$30.35 | 44% 2041-2641 (4682) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80.3¢ | $49.49 | $53.53 | +$4.04 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
AA aaa221CTR | Downavg 55.1¢ | $105.95 | — | -$74.26 | 59% 3649-2497 (6146) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 82.5¢ | $143.75 | $46.87 | +$4.31 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $37.05 | $51.45 | +$14.4 | 47% 2092-2317 (4409) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $33.27 | $44.96 | +$11.69 | 51% 4993-4711 (9704) |
Invested
$1,654.14
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$22.85
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$509.24
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$558.29
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
Invested
$987.76
Value
—
PnL
-$987.76
Record
64%
1914-1059 (2973)
Invested
$782.37
Value
$798.34
PnL
+$15.97
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$522.06
Value
$680.86
PnL
+$158.8
Record
51%
4625-4478 (9103)
Invested
$806.24
Value
—
PnL
-$798.42
Record
50%
488-495 (983)
Invested
$517.29
Value
$493.54
PnL
-$0.45
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$510.85
Value
$462.48
PnL
-$48.37
Record
58%
4982-3643 (8625)
Both legs:
Invested
$293.54
Value
$408.36
PnL
+$135.56
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$308.02
Value
$300.4
PnL
-$7.61
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Both legs:
Invested
$322.22
Value
$300.36
PnL
-$21.86
Record
58%
3610-2614 (6224)
Invested
$160.15
Value
$183.68
PnL
+$23.53
Record
51%
829-786 (1615)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$155.55
Value
$148.56
PnL
-$5.8
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$90.44
Value
$153
PnL
+$62.56
Record
51%
961-907 (1868)
Invested
$154.97
Value
—
PnL
-$154.97
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Invested
$124.8
Value
$131.27
PnL
+$52.15
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Invested
$107.06
Value
$99
PnL
-$8.06
Record
49%
870-892 (1762)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.42
Value
$95
PnL
+$32.58
Record
47%
2135-2370 (4505)
Invested
$63.97
Value
$87.04
PnL
+$23.07
Record
56%
261-207 (468)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$44.65
Value
$75
PnL
+$30.35
Record
44%
2041-2641 (4682)
Invested
$49.49
Value
$53.53
PnL
+$4.04
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
Invested
$105.95
Value
—
PnL
-$74.26
Record
59%
3649-2497 (6146)
Invested
$143.75
Value
$46.87
PnL
+$4.31
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
Invested
$37.05
Value
$51.45
PnL
+$14.4
Record
47%
2092-2317 (4409)
Invested
$33.27
Value
$44.96
PnL
+$11.69
Record
51%
4993-4711 (9704)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.7K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.1K
RLWG
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $798.34
bosona
Up — $680.86
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $408.36
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded