Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 72%
3 arb excluded
$6.4K
-$463.02
Smart Money Signal
24 of 33 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $967.43 | $1.2K | +$279.61 | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 79.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$148.05 | 49% 480-493 (973) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$278.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.8¢ | $130.26 | — | -$130.26 | |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 19.6¢ | $258.06 | — | -$258.06 | 65% 1911-1050 (2961) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $502 | $490 | -$4 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $252 | — | -$252 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$248 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 92.8¢ | $447.64 | $459.25 | +$11.62 | 58% 3596-2603 (6199) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 61.6¢ | $246.41 | $399.84 | +$153.43 | 46% 977-1126 (2103) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $313.93 | $334.29 | +$20.36 | 51% 822-785 (1607) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 75¢ | $332.03 | $322 | +$4.7 | 58% 4971-3632 (8603) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $85 | — | -$85 | 51% 4610-4467 (9077) |
AL almach | Downavg 71¢ | $254.47 | $238.57 | -$15.9 | 51% 1368-1337 (2705) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $167.68 | $246.23 | +$78.55 | 50% 1358-1358 (2716) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56¢ | $137.89 | $246.23 | +$108.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.1¢ | $29.79 | — | -$29.79 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 64¢ | $307.96 | $205 | +$1.66 | 52% 2159-2014 (4173) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 72.5¢ | $124.45 | $171.62 | +$47.17 | 50% 2222-2217 (4439) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $144.03 | $126.1 | +$13.72 | 56% 249-199 (448) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 62.1¢ | $98.64 | $110.9 | +$12.26 | 55% 4374-3580 (7954) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 73.5¢ | $73.5 | $100 | +$26.5 | 50% 4364-4429 (8793) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $83 | $100 | +$17 | 49% 865-890 (1755) |
 gabigol<$100 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $80.65 | $82.87 | +$2.21 | 48% 251-273 (524) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $83.68 | $166.63 | +$82.95 | 50% 1856-1838 (3694) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94.1¢ | $42.17 | $41.17 | -$1 | 50% 2339-2380 (4719) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $71 | $78.9 | +$7.9 | 42% 280-382 (662) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $23.45 | $35 | +$11.55 | 47% 2019-2253 (4272) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $8.6 | — | -$8.6 | 59% 3605-2478 (6083) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $18.86 | — | -$18.86 | 50% 782-781 (1563) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $13.79 | $18.72 | +$4.93 | 67% 3307-1655 (4962) |
Invested
$967.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$279.61
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
Invested
$1,216.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$148.05
Record
49%
480-493 (973)
Both legs:
Invested
$258.06
Value
—
PnL
-$258.06
Record
65%
1911-1050 (2961)
Invested
$502
Value
$490
PnL
-$4
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Both legs:
Invested
$447.64
Value
$459.25
PnL
+$11.62
Record
58%
3596-2603 (6199)
Invested
$246.41
Value
$399.84
PnL
+$153.43
Record
46%
977-1126 (2103)
Invested
$313.93
Value
$334.29
PnL
+$20.36
Record
51%
822-785 (1607)
Invested
$332.03
Value
$322
PnL
+$4.7
Record
58%
4971-3632 (8603)
Invested
$85
Value
—
PnL
-$85
Record
51%
4610-4467 (9077)
Invested
$254.47
Value
$238.57
PnL
-$15.9
Record
51%
1368-1337 (2705)
Invested
$167.68
Value
$246.23
PnL
+$78.55
Record
50%
1358-1358 (2716)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$307.96
Value
$205
PnL
+$1.66
Record
52%
2159-2014 (4173)
Invested
$124.45
Value
$171.62
PnL
+$47.17
Record
50%
2222-2217 (4439)
Invested
$144.03
Value
$126.1
PnL
+$13.72
Record
56%
249-199 (448)
Invested
$98.64
Value
$110.9
PnL
+$12.26
Record
55%
4374-3580 (7954)
Invested
$73.5
Value
$100
PnL
+$26.5
Record
50%
4364-4429 (8793)
Invested
$83
Value
$100
PnL
+$17
Record
49%
865-890 (1755)
gabigol<$100Invested
$80.65
Value
$82.87
PnL
+$2.21
Record
48%
251-273 (524)
Invested
$83.68
Value
$166.63
PnL
+$82.95
Record
50%
1856-1838 (3694)
Invested
$42.17
Value
$41.17
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
2339-2380 (4719)
Invested
$71
Value
$78.9
PnL
+$7.9
Record
42%
280-382 (662)
ohioism<$100Invested
$23.45
Value
$35
PnL
+$11.55
Record
47%
2019-2253 (4272)
Invested
$8.6
Value
—
PnL
-$8.6
Record
59%
3605-2478 (6083)
Invested
$18.86
Value
—
PnL
-$18.86
Record
50%
782-781 (1563)
Invested
$13.79
Value
$18.72
PnL
+$4.93
Record
67%
3307-1655 (4962)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.2K
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RLWG
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $459.25
CrouchPredictions
Down — $399.84
EZTRADENL2
Down — $334.29
Hcrystallash
Down — $322
bosona
CTRUp — $0
almach
Down — $238.57