Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$547.65

Smart Money Signal

33 of 41 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up33 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares19,707

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,295

Combined PnL-$766.3

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.2¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$43.5	52% 1352-1265 (2617)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 74.1¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$3	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$33.41	98% 3543-73 (3616)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80.8¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$94.94	46% 968-1122 (2090)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 83.2¢	$749.2	$876.16	+$181.27	42% 280-380 (660)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 49.1¢	$374	$760.99	+$386.99	15% 27-154 (181)
ST stepahead	Upavg 78¢	$663.45	$680.02	+$16.57	55% 4364-3577 (7941)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 39.4¢	$325.58	$620.68	+$295.1	50% 480-487 (967)
AL almach	Upavg 96.5¢	$1.6K	$557.18	+$42.77	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.7¢	$531.57	$500	-$2.86	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
BO bosona	Upavg 83.6¢	$1.2K	$499.67	+$194.88	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
NIULAI4	Upavg 90.2¢	$425.03	$471	+$45.97	27% 463-1249 (1712)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 73.9¢	$395.07	$388.4	+$0.96	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 16.3¢	$444.21	—	-$444.21	58% 4958-3625 (8583)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 88.1¢	$310.25	$352.1	+$41.85	35% 71-130 (201)
gabigol	Upavg 93.5¢	$284.13	$301.2	+$17.07	48% 251-271 (522)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 89.3¢	$299.16	$260.08	-$38.78	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
AA aaa221	Upavg 76.4¢	$213.38	$207.23	+$12.27	59% 3587-2446 (6033)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 75.8¢	$188.45	$199.99	+$11.54	49% 861-889 (1750)
MO mo-money	Upavg 89.8¢	$952.09	$173.89	+$31.1	50% 1342-1353 (2695)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 88.9¢	$172.92	$160	-$5.18	56% 242-193 (435)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 35.8¢	$179.6	$40	-$139.6	50% 2196-2203 (4399)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$146	—	-$146
└ Up leg	Upavg 84¢	$33.6	$40	+$6.4
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 88.2¢	$132.11	$94	+$1.28	63% 3881-2327 (6208)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 87.6¢	$78.4	$89.53	+$11.13	26% 274-776 (1050)
RL RLWGCTR	Downavg 10¢	$145.55	—	-$145.55	65% 1910-1048 (2958)

0x50f7

Invested

$5,213.73

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$43.5

Record

52%

1352-1265 (2617)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,127.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$3

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,894.59

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$33.41

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,935.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$94.94

Record

46%

968-1122 (2090)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$749.2

Value

$876.16

PnL

+$181.27

Record

42%

280-380 (660)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$374

Value

$760.99

PnL

+$386.99

Record

15%

27-154 (181)

stepahead

Invested

$663.45

Value

$680.02

PnL

+$16.57

Record

55%

4364-3577 (7941)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$325.58

Value

$620.68

PnL

+$295.1

Record

50%

480-487 (967)

almach

Invested

$1,626.68

Value

$557.18

PnL

+$42.77

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$531.57

Value

$500

PnL

-$2.86

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

bosona

Invested

$1,222.87

Value

$499.67

PnL

+$194.88

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

NIULAI4

Invested

$425.03

Value

$471

PnL

+$45.97

Record

27%

463-1249 (1712)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$395.07

Value

$388.4

PnL

+$0.96

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$444.21

Value

—

PnL

-$444.21

Record

58%

4958-3625 (8583)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$310.25

Value

$352.1

PnL

+$41.85

Record

35%

71-130 (201)

gabigol

Invested

$284.13

Value

$301.2

PnL

+$17.07

Record

48%

251-271 (522)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$299.16

Value

$260.08

PnL

-$38.78

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

aaa221

Invested

$213.38

Value

$207.23

PnL

+$12.27

Record

59%

3587-2446 (6033)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$188.45

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$11.54

Record

49%

861-889 (1750)

mo-money

Invested

$952.09

Value

$173.89

PnL

+$31.1

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

Alpharo28

Invested

$172.92

Value

$160

PnL

-$5.18

Record

56%

242-193 (435)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$179.6

Value

$40

PnL

-$139.6

Record

50%

2196-2203 (4399)

Both legs:

Down$14635.8¢-$146

Up$33.684¢+$6.4

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$132.11

Value

$94

PnL

+$1.28

Record

63%

3881-2327 (6208)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$78.4

Value

$89.53

PnL

+$11.13

Record

26%

274-776 (1050)

RLWGCTR

Down

Invested

$145.55

Value

—

PnL

-$145.55

Record

65%

1910-1048 (2958)

Smart Money Signal

33 of 41 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfe2d7529...ad7f10

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794673800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $5.3K

+$43.5

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $3.1K

-$3

hoodquant

Up — $1.9K

+$33.41

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.8K

-$94.94

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Up — $876.16

+$181.27

KARIZMATIKU

Up — $760.99

+$386.99

stepahead

Up — $680.02

+$16.57

aswfadq1555

Up — $620.68

+$295.1

almach

Up — $557.18

+$42.77

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

-$2.86

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