Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Signal

32 of 38 top traders (84%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,746

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Up32 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares20,198

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down — 16%Up — 84%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWGCTR	Downavg 25.8¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K	65% 1910-1048 (2958)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 72.4¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$47.16	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
BoneOhio	Upavg 94.2¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$138.92	71% 1551-630 (2181)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 84¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$330.65	58% 3585-2599 (6184)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.75	98% 3543-73 (3616)
ST stepahead	Upavg 64.3¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$612.62	55% 4364-3577 (7941)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 74.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$302.43	50% 480-487 (967)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$883.24	$884.29	+$1.05	52% 1352-1265 (2617)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 69.7¢	$889.23	$845.56	-$43.67	46% 968-1122 (2090)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 73.2¢	$1.0K	$827.91	-$189.5	58% 4958-3625 (8583)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 57¢	$1.3K	$864.34	+$169.25	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57¢	$492.3	$864.34	+$86.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$129.23	—	+$82.71
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 59.4¢	$396.27	$666.76	+$270.49	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 79.7¢	$487.95	$612	+$124.05	42% 1609-2196 (3805)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$539	$489.05	+$8.15	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$229.07	—	-$239.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$253.17	$489.05	+$247.71
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$772.53	$608.8	+$74.34	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$419.63	$608.8	+$106.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 8.3¢	$24.27	—	-$32.07
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 90¢	$719	$464.84	-$252.14	42% 280-380 (660)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 81.2¢	$381.85	$378.45	-$3.41	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.7¢	$74.47	—	-$74.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.2¢	$307.39	$378.45	+$71.06
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 68¢	$308.23	$346.7	+$54.62	50% 4343-4417 (8760)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 59.1¢	$182.46	$308.77	+$126.31	47% 2043-2283 (4326)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 80.3¢	$313.05	$299.39	-$13.66	67% 3285-1642 (4927)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$262.92	$274.89	+$11.97	51% 4952-4670 (9622)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$153.79	$274.89	+$121.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$109.14	—	-$109.14
MO mo-money	Upavg 65.3¢	$1.4K	$287.43	+$42.15	50% 1342-1353 (2695)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 77.9¢	$237.15	$222.62	-$14.53	49% 861-889 (1750)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.6¢	$63.8	—	-$63.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.9¢	$173.35	$222.62	+$49.27
gabigol	Upavg 64.9¢	$291.95	$440.33	+$148.38	48% 251-271 (522)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 89.4¢	$188.87	$197.32	+$8.45	49% 2315-2365 (4680)

RLWGCTR

Down

Invested

$2,384.13

Value

—

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

65%

1910-1048 (2958)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,859.26

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$47.16

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,253.38

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$138.92

Record

71%

1551-630 (2181)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$1,729.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$330.65

Record

58%

3585-2599 (6184)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,910.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.75

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

stepahead

Invested

$1,393.86

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$612.62

Record

55%

4364-3577 (7941)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$1,203.74

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$302.43

Record

50%

480-487 (967)

0x50f7

Invested

$883.24

Value

$884.29

PnL

+$1.05

Record

52%

1352-1265 (2617)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$889.23

Value

$845.56

PnL

-$43.67

Record

46%

968-1122 (2090)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$1,017.42

Value

$827.91

PnL

-$189.5

Record

58%

4958-3625 (8583)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$1,252.91

Value

$864.34

PnL

+$169.25

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

Both legs:

Up$492.357¢+$86.54

Down$129.2325.5¢+$82.71

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$396.27

Value

$666.76

PnL

+$270.49

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$487.95

Value

$612

PnL

+$124.05

Record

42%

1609-2196 (3805)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$539

Value

$489.05

PnL

+$8.15

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

Both legs:

Down$229.0746.7¢-$239.55

Up$253.1751.8¢+$247.71

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$772.53

Value

$608.8

PnL

+$74.34

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

Both legs:

Up$419.6368.9¢+$106.42

Down$24.278.3¢-$32.07

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$719

Value

$464.84

PnL

-$252.14

Record

42%

280-380 (660)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$381.85

Value

$378.45

PnL

-$3.41

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

Both legs:

Down$74.4719.7¢-$74.47

Up$307.3981.2¢+$71.06

asdcaxz

Invested

$308.23

Value

$346.7

PnL

+$54.62

Record

50%

4343-4417 (8760)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$182.46

Value

$308.77

PnL

+$126.31

Record

47%

2043-2283 (4326)

asdaefef

Invested

$313.05

Value

$299.39

PnL

-$13.66

Record

67%

3285-1642 (4927)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$262.92

Value

$274.89

PnL

+$11.97

Record

51%

4952-4670 (9622)

Both legs:

Up$153.7955.9¢+$121.1

Down$109.1434.1¢-$109.14

mo-money

Invested

$1,397.4

Value

$287.43

PnL

+$42.15

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$237.15

Value

$222.62

PnL

-$14.53

Record

49%

861-889 (1750)

Both legs:

Down$63.827.6¢-$63.8

Up$173.3577.9¢+$49.27

gabigol

Invested

$291.95

Value

$440.33

PnL

+$148.38

Record

48%

251-271 (522)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$188.87

Value

$197.32

PnL

+$8.45

Record

49%

2315-2365 (4680)

Smart Money Signal

32 of 38 top traders (84%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x41d86a33...0c1424

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794672900

Traders in this Market

RLWG

CTR

Down — $0

$-2.4K

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $2.8K

-$47.16

BoneOhio

Up — $2.4K

+$138.92

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $2.1K

+$330.65

hoodquant

Up — $1.9K

+$19.75

stepahead

Up — $2.0K

+$612.62

aswfadq1555

Up — $1.5K

+$302.43

0x50f7

Up — $884.29

+$1.05

CrouchPredictions

Up — $845.56

-$43.67

Hcrystallash

Up — $827.91

-$189.5

Trade on Polymarket