Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 55%
5 arb excluded
$7.8K
$-5.2K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 33 top traders (55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 58.2¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.9K | 50% 3041-2991 (6032) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$13.9 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 65.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$6.72 | 46% 968-1122 (2090) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 58.6¢ | $751.72 | $862.47 | +$117.53 | 58% 4958-3625 (8583) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 37.2¢ | $678.92 | — | -$678.92 | 50% 480-487 (967) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 38.6¢ | $647.47 | $656.24 | +$8.77 | 55% 4364-3577 (7941) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.6¢ | $299.3 | $656.24 | +$356.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.6¢ | $348.18 | — | -$348.18 | |
RL RLWGARB<$100 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $660.07 | $647.7 | -$12.38 | 65% 1910-1048 (2958) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.2¢ | $500.08 | $647.7 | +$147.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16¢ | $160 | — | -$160 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.5¢ | $566.2 | — | -$486.04 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 63.6¢ | $505.32 | — | -$505.32 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
AL almach | Downavg 74.7¢ | $725.81 | $372.47 | -$55.57 | 50% 1354-1329 (2683) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $1.2K | $169.94 | +$88.65 | 50% 1342-1353 (2695) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.5¢ | $162.83 | — | -$40.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $108.76 | $169.94 | +$129.51 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $264.25 | $249.28 | -$14.96 | 51% 817-778 (1595) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.7¢ | $166.23 | $249.28 | +$83.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.1¢ | $98.01 | — | -$98.01 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 48.2¢ | $231.96 | $481 | +$249.04 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $233.59 | $233.82 | +$0.23 | 52% 1352-1265 (2617) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $193.7 | $207.94 | +$14.24 | 49% 861-889 (1750) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.2¢ | $77.3 | $207.94 | +$130.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $116.4 | — | -$116.4 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 60.3¢ | $505.4 | $200 | +$8.41 | 52% 2153-1992 (4145) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 60.6¢ | $166.69 | $195 | +$28.31 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 84¢ | $117.43 | $139.73 | +$22.3 | 58% 3585-2599 (6184) |
 gabigol | Downavg 73.7¢ | $97.3 | $117.59 | +$20.29 | 48% 251-271 (522) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $118.35 | $120 | +$37.72 | 59% 3587-2446 (6033) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $125.85 | $112.79 | +$25.77 | 56% 242-193 (435) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $56.7 | $63.13 | +$8.24 | 67% 3285-1642 (4927) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Upavg 35.7¢ | $116.95 | — | -$70.4 | 47% 2043-2283 (4326) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $45 | $50 | +$5 | 60% 989-671 (1660) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $100.78 | $45 | +$16.88 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
Invested
$4,006.48
Value
—
PnL
$-3.9K
Record
50%
3041-2991 (6032)
Invested
$1,376.44
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.9
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$1,329.94
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$6.72
Record
46%
968-1122 (2090)
Invested
$751.72
Value
$862.47
PnL
+$117.53
Record
58%
4958-3625 (8583)
Invested
$678.92
Value
—
PnL
-$678.92
Record
50%
480-487 (967)
Invested
$647.47
Value
$656.24
PnL
+$8.77
Record
55%
4364-3577 (7941)
Both legs:
Invested
$660.07
Value
$647.7
PnL
-$12.38
Record
65%
1910-1048 (2958)
Both legs:
Invested
$566.2
Value
—
PnL
-$486.04
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$505.32
Value
—
PnL
-$505.32
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
Invested
$725.81
Value
$372.47
PnL
-$55.57
Record
50%
1354-1329 (2683)
Invested
$1,173.61
Value
$169.94
PnL
+$88.65
Record
50%
1342-1353 (2695)
Both legs:
Invested
$264.25
Value
$249.28
PnL
-$14.96
Record
51%
817-778 (1595)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.96
Value
$481
PnL
+$249.04
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
Invested
$233.59
Value
$233.82
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
1352-1265 (2617)
Invested
$193.7
Value
$207.94
PnL
+$14.24
Record
49%
861-889 (1750)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$505.4
Value
$200
PnL
+$8.41
Record
52%
2153-1992 (4145)
Invested
$166.69
Value
$195
PnL
+$28.31
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$117.43
Value
$139.73
PnL
+$22.3
Record
58%
3585-2599 (6184)
gabigolInvested
$97.3
Value
$117.59
PnL
+$20.29
Record
48%
251-271 (522)
Invested
$118.35
Value
$120
PnL
+$37.72
Record
59%
3587-2446 (6033)
Invested
$125.85
Value
$112.79
PnL
+$25.77
Record
56%
242-193 (435)
Invested
$56.7
Value
$63.13
PnL
+$8.24
Record
67%
3285-1642 (4927)
Invested
$116.95
Value
—
PnL
-$70.4
Record
47%
2043-2283 (4326)
Invested
$45
Value
$50
PnL
+$5
Record
60%
989-671 (1660)
Invested
$100.78
Value
$45
PnL
+$16.88
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
Hcrystallash
Down — $862.47
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RLWG
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
bosona
CTRUp — $0
almach
Down — $372.47