Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
41
Down 66%
1 arb excluded
$14.0K
-$39.02
Smart Money Signal
27 of 41 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $3.3K | $3.6K | +$382.25 | 50% 3000-2949 (5949) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$2.9 | 51% 1328-1257 (2585) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 48.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$530.34 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 79.2¢ | $938.21 | $1.2K | +$238.73 | 58% 3566-2579 (6145) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59¢ | $949.98 | $963.65 | +$13.67 | 46% 948-1109 (2057) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 56.5¢ | $601.37 | $915.09 | +$318.32 | 58% 4940-3609 (8549) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $530.08 | — | -$488.9 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 50.9¢ | $431.94 | $444.87 | +$12.93 | 55% 4342-3564 (7906) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 41.8¢ | $633.04 | — | -$414.37 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 28.3¢ | $672.37 | — | -$639.03 | 50% 472-477 (949) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $385.78 | $389.68 | +$3.9 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 43¢ | $170.67 | $294.75 | +$128.96 | 47% 2034-2298 (4332) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 71.2¢ | $222.77 | $275.54 | +$52.77 | 52% 2516-2359 (4875) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 81.4¢ | $239.6 | $250.73 | +$11.13 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $151.96 | $156.69 | +$4.73 | 51% 800-760 (1560) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Upavg 41.8¢ | $137.41 | — | -$137.41 | 49% 855-884 (1739) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 60.5¢ | $101.15 | $140 | +$38.85 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $104.59 | $113.22 | +$16.48 | 60% 3539-2389 (5928) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 37.9¢ | $40.77 | $96.67 | +$55.9 | 47% 1989-2244 (4233) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100 | Upavg 29.7¢ | $309.09 | $51.6 | -$257.5 | 42% 274-379 (653) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 94¢ | $48.5 | $51.6 | +$3.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.7¢ | $260.6 | — | -$260.6 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $69.23 | $72.48 | +$3.25 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51¢ | $76.5 | $150 | +$73.5 | 51% 926-882 (1808) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 6.2¢ | $231.02 | — | +$131.51 | 50% 1325-1312 (2637) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 12.6¢ | $135.73 | — | -$135.73 | 65% 1905-1041 (2946) |
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100 | Upavg 63.3¢ | $88.3 | — | -$63.02 | 57% 228-175 (403) |
Invested
$3,250.59
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$382.25
Record
50%
3000-2949 (5949)
Invested
$2,837.43
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$2.9
Record
51%
1328-1257 (2585)
Invested
$1,454.09
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$530.34
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$938.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$238.73
Record
58%
3566-2579 (6145)
Invested
$949.98
Value
$963.65
PnL
+$13.67
Record
46%
948-1109 (2057)
Invested
$601.37
Value
$915.09
PnL
+$318.32
Record
58%
4940-3609 (8549)
Invested
$530.08
Value
—
PnL
-$488.9
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$431.94
Value
$444.87
PnL
+$12.93
Record
55%
4342-3564 (7906)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$633.04
Value
—
PnL
-$414.37
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$672.37
Value
—
PnL
-$639.03
Record
50%
472-477 (949)
Invested
$385.78
Value
$389.68
PnL
+$3.9
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$170.67
Value
$294.75
PnL
+$128.96
Record
47%
2034-2298 (4332)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$222.77
Value
$275.54
PnL
+$52.77
Record
52%
2516-2359 (4875)
Invested
$239.6
Value
$250.73
PnL
+$11.13
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$151.96
Value
$156.69
PnL
+$4.73
Record
51%
800-760 (1560)
Invested
$137.41
Value
—
PnL
-$137.41
Record
49%
855-884 (1739)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$101.15
Value
$140
PnL
+$38.85
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
Invested
$104.59
Value
$113.22
PnL
+$16.48
Record
60%
3539-2389 (5928)
Invested
$40.77
Value
$96.67
PnL
+$55.9
Record
47%
1989-2244 (4233)
Invested
$309.09
Value
$51.6
PnL
-$257.5
Record
42%
274-379 (653)
Both legs:
Invested
$69.23
Value
$72.48
PnL
+$3.25
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$76.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$73.5
Record
51%
926-882 (1808)
Invested
$231.02
Value
—
PnL
+$131.51
Record
50%
1325-1312 (2637)
Invested
$135.73
Value
—
PnL
-$135.73
Record
65%
1905-1041 (2946)
Invested
$88.3
Value
—
PnL
-$63.02
Record
57%
228-175 (403)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $3.6K
0x50f7
Down — $2.8K
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.9K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $963.65
Hcrystallash
Down — $915.09
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $444.87
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0