Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$778.38

Smart Money Signal

25 of 35 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,743

Combined PnL-$204.31

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,948

Combined PnL-$574.07

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 72.8¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	-$263.57	50% 3000-2949 (5949)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$17.08	98% 3454-73 (3527)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80.9¢	$1.1K	$978.91	-$98.82	46% 948-1109 (2057)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 95.6¢	$557.89	$583.73	+$25.84	50% 1823-1791 (3614)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$512.28	$490	-$5.7	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245.2	$490	+$247
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$252.13	—	-$252.7
ST stepahead	Upavg 62.8¢	$436.71	$430.35	-$6.36	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 88¢	$411.69	$271.52	-$140.17	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$172.75	—	-$172.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 88¢	$238.94	$271.52	+$32.58
AL almachCTR	Downavg 33.5¢	$290.82	—	-$290.82	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$597.19	$220	+$34.9	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.3¢	$143.66	$220	+$19.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.3¢	$66.97	—	+$15.22
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 94.8¢	$156.46	$159.49	+$3.03	51% 800-760 (1560)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 85¢	$135.22	$159.08	+$23.86	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 78.9¢	$129.46	$106.68	-$22.78	49% 855-884 (1739)
BO bosona	Upavg 69¢	$378.61	$95.24	+$46.69	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 82.2¢	$88.1	$88.74	+$4.3	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 18.1¢	$101.61	$38.35	-$63.26	50% 472-477 (949)
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.1¢	$73.37	—	-$73.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.6¢	$28.24	$38.35	+$10.11
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 73.3¢	$119.24	$87.64	+$17.4	58% 3566-2579 (6145)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 27.6¢	$263.39	—	-$178.1	58% 4940-3609 (8549)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$77.56	$75.02	+$2.66	57% 228-175 (403)
LI Little-big	Upavg 56.3¢	$68.69	$122	+$53.31	51% 926-882 (1808)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 83.5¢	$45.47	$28	-$17.47	52% 2516-2359 (4875)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Upavg 88¢	$45	$51.14	+$6.14	42% 274-379 (653)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 66¢	$33	$50	+$17	71% 1515-611 (2126)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$75.57	$49.85	-$2.94	60% 3539-2389 (5928)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$45.62	$33.75	-$11.87	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.3¢	$28.45	$33.75	+$5.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.3¢	$17.17	—	-$17.17
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 54¢	$32.5	$35	+$2.5	47% 1989-2244 (4233)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,650.01

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$263.57

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,141.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$17.08

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,079.8

Value

$978.91

PnL

-$98.82

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$557.89

Value

$583.73

PnL

+$25.84

Record

50%

1823-1791 (3614)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$512.28

Value

$490

PnL

-$5.7

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Up$245.250¢+$247

Down$252.1349.4¢-$252.7

stepahead

Invested

$436.71

Value

$430.35

PnL

-$6.36

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$411.69

Value

$271.52

PnL

-$140.17

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

Both legs:

Down$172.7537.3¢-$172.75

Up$238.9488¢+$32.58

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$290.82

Value

—

PnL

-$290.82

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$597.19

Value

$220

PnL

+$34.9

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

Both legs:

Up$143.6665.3¢+$19.68

Down$66.9725.3¢+$15.22

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$156.46

Value

$159.49

PnL

+$3.03

Record

51%

800-760 (1560)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$135.22

Value

$159.08

PnL

+$23.86

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$129.46

Value

$106.68

PnL

-$22.78

Record

49%

855-884 (1739)

bosona

Invested

$378.61

Value

$95.24

PnL

+$46.69

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$88.1

Value

$88.74

PnL

+$4.3

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$101.61

Value

$38.35

PnL

-$63.26

Record

50%

472-477 (949)

Both legs:

Down$73.3718.1¢-$73.37

Up$28.2473.6¢+$10.11

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$119.24

Value

$87.64

PnL

+$17.4

Record

58%

3566-2579 (6145)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$263.39

Value

—

PnL

-$178.1

Record

58%

4940-3609 (8549)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$77.56

Value

$75.02

PnL

+$2.66

Record

57%

228-175 (403)

Little-big

Invested

$68.69

Value

$122

PnL

+$53.31

Record

51%

926-882 (1808)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$45.47

Value

$28

PnL

-$17.47

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$51.14

PnL

+$6.14

Record

42%

274-379 (653)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$50

PnL

+$17

Record

71%

1515-611 (2126)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$75.57

Value

$49.85

PnL

-$2.94

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$45.62

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$11.87

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

Both legs:

Up$28.4584.3¢+$5.3

Down$17.1716.3¢-$17.17

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$32.5

Value

$35

PnL

+$2.5

Record

47%

1989-2244 (4233)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 35 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3aa48864...ca6ff2

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794663900

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $3.4K

-$263.57

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

+$17.08

CrouchPredictions

Up — $978.91

-$98.82

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $583.73

+$25.84

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$5.7

stepahead

Up — $430.35

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Up — $159.49

+$3.03

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