Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 76%
2 arb excluded
$4.4K
$43.81
Smart Money Signal
25 of 33 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$11.95 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.6¢ | $510.66 | — | -$486.46 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 47.3¢ | $201.35 | $420.13 | +$218.78 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 39.3¢ | $165.31 | $419.86 | +$254.54 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59¢ | $277.96 | $296.87 | +$18.91 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $218.91 | $230.39 | +$11.48 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41¢ | $94.46 | $230.39 | +$135.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $124.45 | — | -$124.45 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 67.8¢ | $210.73 | $214.63 | +$3.91 | 58% 4936-3607 (8543) |
AL almach | Downavg 74¢ | $162.06 | $210.3 | +$48.24 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 84.1¢ | $167.85 | $199.51 | +$31.67 | 52% 2502-2335 (4837) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 57¢ | $96.66 | $169.72 | +$73.06 | 57% 220-167 (387) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 90.5¢ | $120.76 | $133.47 | +$12.7 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 51.8¢ | $55.96 | $108 | +$52.04 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
 ohioism | Downavg 45.4¢ | $62.74 | $109.29 | +$46.55 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $89.08 | $75 | -$14.08 | 51% 796-751 (1547) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $29.25 | $75 | +$45.75 | 48% 167-181 (348) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $45.4 | $60 | +$14.6 | 47% 1973-2229 (4202) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 40.6¢ | $50.35 | $66 | +$25.77 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $58.42 | $64.69 | +$6.27 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $29.4 | $60 | +$30.6 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $45.24 | $65.56 | +$20.32 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 40.1¢ | $75.48 | $29.18 | -$46.3 | 50% 469-472 (941) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.1¢ | $62.33 | — | -$62.33 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.1¢ | $13.15 | $29.18 | +$16.03 | |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $42 | $51.22 | +$9.22 | 42% 271-379 (650) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $27.64 | $38 | +$10.36 | 58% 3558-2569 (6127) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $31.99 | $36.98 | +$4.99 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
AA aaa221CTR | Upavg 43.4¢ | $103.74 | — | -$98.41 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
Invested
$1,183.05
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.95
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$510.66
Value
—
PnL
-$486.46
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$201.35
Value
$420.13
PnL
+$218.78
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$165.31
Value
$419.86
PnL
+$254.54
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Invested
$277.96
Value
$296.87
PnL
+$18.91
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$218.91
Value
$230.39
PnL
+$11.48
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Both legs:
Invested
$210.73
Value
$214.63
PnL
+$3.91
Record
58%
4936-3607 (8543)
Invested
$162.06
Value
$210.3
PnL
+$48.24
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$167.85
Value
$199.51
PnL
+$31.67
Record
52%
2502-2335 (4837)
Invested
$96.66
Value
$169.72
PnL
+$73.06
Record
57%
220-167 (387)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$120.76
Value
$133.47
PnL
+$12.7
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$55.96
Value
$108
PnL
+$52.04
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
ohioismInvested
$62.74
Value
$109.29
PnL
+$46.55
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
Invested
$89.08
Value
$75
PnL
-$14.08
Record
51%
796-751 (1547)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$29.25
Value
$75
PnL
+$45.75
Record
48%
167-181 (348)
Invested
$45.4
Value
$60
PnL
+$14.6
Record
47%
1973-2229 (4202)
Invested
$50.35
Value
$66
PnL
+$25.77
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$58.42
Value
$64.69
PnL
+$6.27
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$60
PnL
+$30.6
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$45.24
Value
$65.56
PnL
+$20.32
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
Invested
$75.48
Value
$29.18
PnL
-$46.3
Record
50%
469-472 (941)
Both legs:
Invested
$42
Value
$51.22
PnL
+$9.22
Record
42%
271-379 (650)
Invested
$27.64
Value
$38
PnL
+$10.36
Record
58%
3558-2569 (6127)
Invested
$31.99
Value
$36.98
PnL
+$4.99
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$103.74
Value
—
PnL
-$98.41
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $420.13
mo-money
Down — $419.86
stepahead
Down — $296.87
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Down — $214.63
almach
Down — $210.3
MayorMamdani
Down — $199.51
Alpharo28
Down — $169.72