Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 50%
5 arb excluded
$8.4K
-$975.6
Smart Money Signal
15 of 30 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.44 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 69.7¢ | $926.41 | $964.35 | +$37.94 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
AL almach | Downavg 41.1¢ | $126.48 | $157.91 | +$31.43 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $516.77 | $492.82 | -$3.3 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.2¢ | $250.83 | — | -$251.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $246.12 | $492.82 | +$248.5 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 49.1¢ | $456.9 | $488.92 | +$59.92 | 58% 4936-3607 (8543) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 42.9¢ | $453.58 | $419.14 | -$34.44 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.9¢ | $232 | — | -$232 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.9¢ | $221.58 | $419.14 | +$197.56 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 48.9¢ | $116.05 | $142.54 | +$26.49 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 41.7¢ | $186.85 | $89.4 | -$97.45 | 50% 469-472 (941) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.7¢ | $129.3 | — | -$129.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.4¢ | $57.55 | $89.4 | +$31.85 | |
 gabigol | Downavg 86.9¢ | $161.14 | $174.8 | +$13.66 | 49% 249-260 (509) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $168.16 | $157.38 | -$10.78 | 51% 796-751 (1547) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 48¢ | $229.47 | — | -$178.57 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 76.6¢ | $137.98 | $131.25 | -$5.08 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 44.5¢ | $374.65 | — | -$120.24 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 41.8¢ | $97.37 | $101.97 | +$4.6 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.8¢ | $50.15 | — | -$50.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.3¢ | $47.22 | $101.97 | +$54.75 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $100 | — | -$100 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $83.2 | $82.22 | +$1.22 | 57% 220-167 (387) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $76.38 | — | -$76.38 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.9¢ | $74.41 | $50.08 | -$24.33 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.9¢ | $41.31 | — | -$41.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.1¢ | $33.1 | $50.08 | +$16.98 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $48.2 | $51.05 | +$2.85 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $31.35 | — | -$31.35 | 38% 597-969 (1566) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $20.1 | $30 | +$9.9 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 81.6¢ | $147.63 | $29.01 | +$31.38 | 58% 3558-2569 (6127) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $30.73 | — | -$30.73 | 48% 1156-1258 (2414) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.4¢ | $26.7 | — | -$26.7 | 50% 1805-1780 (3585) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$1,330.56
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.44
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$926.41
Value
$964.35
PnL
+$37.94
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$126.48
Value
$157.91
PnL
+$31.43
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Invested
$516.77
Value
$492.82
PnL
-$3.3
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Invested
$456.9
Value
$488.92
PnL
+$59.92
Record
58%
4936-3607 (8543)
Invested
$453.58
Value
$419.14
PnL
-$34.44
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.05
Value
$142.54
PnL
+$26.49
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Invested
$186.85
Value
$89.4
PnL
-$97.45
Record
50%
469-472 (941)
Both legs:
gabigolInvested
$161.14
Value
$174.8
PnL
+$13.66
Record
49%
249-260 (509)
Invested
$168.16
Value
$157.38
PnL
-$10.78
Record
51%
796-751 (1547)
Invested
$229.47
Value
—
PnL
-$178.57
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$137.98
Value
$131.25
PnL
-$5.08
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$374.65
Value
—
PnL
-$120.24
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Invested
$97.37
Value
$101.97
PnL
+$4.6
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$100
Value
—
PnL
-$100
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$83.2
Value
$82.22
PnL
+$1.22
Record
57%
220-167 (387)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$76.38
Value
—
PnL
-$76.38
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
Invested
$74.41
Value
$50.08
PnL
-$24.33
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.2
Value
$51.05
PnL
+$2.85
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$31.35
Value
—
PnL
-$31.35
Record
38%
597-969 (1566)
Invested
$20.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$9.9
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$147.63
Value
$29.01
PnL
+$31.38
Record
58%
3558-2569 (6127)
Invested
$30.73
Value
—
PnL
-$30.73
Record
48%
1156-1258 (2414)
Invested
$26.7
Value
—
PnL
-$26.7
Record
50%
1805-1780 (3585)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $964.35
almach
Down — $157.91
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Down — $488.92
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $142.54
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
gabigol
Down — $174.8