Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
45
Up 73%
4 arb excluded
$23.3K
$2.7K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 45 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Upavg 96¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$97.93 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
SH Shimi1234 | Upavg 43.1¢ | $1.0K | $2.3K | +$1.3K | 31% 8-18 (26) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 82¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$112.41 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
 wowitsamazing | Upavg 40.8¢ | $589.41 | $1.4K | +$856.28 | 48% 166-178 (344) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$38.08 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$113.95 | 34% 66-126 (192) |
BO bosona | Upavg 60¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$393.79 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $749.43 | $1.1K | +$364.96 | 42% 269-379 (648) |
RL RLWG | Upavg 45.3¢ | $542.4 | $1.1K | +$568.72 | 65% 1898-1040 (2938) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $999.76 | $811.5 | -$188.26 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.8¢ | $583.41 | — | -$583.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.3¢ | $416.35 | $811.5 | +$395.15 | |
 Atomforge | Upavg 53¢ | $891.09 | $1.0K | +$115.65 | 26% 268-776 (1044) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $954.17 | $639 | -$315.17 | 58% 3554-2561 (6115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.5¢ | $658.46 | — | -$658.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.3¢ | $295.71 | $639 | +$343.29 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 59.8¢ | $737.47 | $954.53 | +$217.06 | 58% 4932-3605 (8537) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 92¢ | $825.84 | $898 | +$72.16 | 26% 440-1221 (1661) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 60.4¢ | $898.91 | $948.5 | +$419.86 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
AL almach | Upavg 56.3¢ | $602.8 | $750 | +$320.35 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
0X 0xBadB9af986EE66437BD39E6cd3D3036CbbDc31a | Upavg 53.7¢ | $268.7 | $500 | +$231.3 | — 2-6 (8) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.2¢ | $542.35 | — | -$486.07 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 55.4¢ | $285.65 | $356 | +$70.35 | 44% 1926-2494 (4420) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 71.6¢ | $258.73 | $290 | +$31.27 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $276.86 | $277.14 | +$0.28 | 51% 1306-1242 (2548) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 95.9¢ | $258.96 | $270 | +$11.04 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 59.9¢ | $228.73 | $235.78 | +$7.05 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
 ohioism | Upavg 61.2¢ | $150.1 | $226.3 | +$76.2 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $232.38 | $221.78 | -$10.6 | 50% 467-468 (935) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $125.49 | $221.78 | +$96.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.6¢ | $106.89 | — | -$106.89 |
BoneOhioInvested
$2,345.55
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$97.93
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
31%
8-18 (26)
Invested
$1,612.22
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$112.41
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
wowitsamazingInvested
$589.41
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$856.28
Record
48%
166-178 (344)
Invested
$1,401.98
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$38.08
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
Invested
$1,156.25
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$113.95
Record
34%
66-126 (192)
Invested
$1,086.62
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$393.79
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$749.43
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$364.96
Record
42%
269-379 (648)
Invested
$542.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$568.72
Record
65%
1898-1040 (2938)
Invested
$999.76
Value
$811.5
PnL
-$188.26
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Both legs:
AtomforgeInvested
$891.09
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$115.65
Record
26%
268-776 (1044)
Invested
$954.17
Value
$639
PnL
-$315.17
Record
58%
3554-2561 (6115)
Both legs:
Invested
$737.47
Value
$954.53
PnL
+$217.06
Record
58%
4932-3605 (8537)
NIULAI4Invested
$825.84
Value
$898
PnL
+$72.16
Record
26%
440-1221 (1661)
Invested
$898.91
Value
$948.5
PnL
+$419.86
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$602.8
Value
$750
PnL
+$320.35
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$268.7
Value
$500
PnL
+$231.3
Record
—
2-6 (8)
Invested
$542.35
Value
—
PnL
-$486.07
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$285.65
Value
$356
PnL
+$70.35
Record
44%
1926-2494 (4420)
Invested
$258.73
Value
$290
PnL
+$31.27
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$276.86
Value
$277.14
PnL
+$0.28
Record
51%
1306-1242 (2548)
Invested
$258.96
Value
$270
PnL
+$11.04
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$228.73
Value
$235.78
PnL
+$7.05
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
ohioismInvested
$150.1
Value
$226.3
PnL
+$76.2
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Invested
$232.38
Value
$221.78
PnL
-$10.6
Record
50%
467-468 (935)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Up — $2.4K
Shimi1234
Up — $2.3K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.5K
wowitsamazing
Up — $1.4K
hoodquant
Up — $1.4K
asabovesobelow2
Up — $1.3K
bosona
Up — $1.2K
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $1.1K
RLWG
Up — $1.1K
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded