Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

20 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

-$935.52

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 36 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares14,922

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Up20 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares8,823

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 77.8¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$430.27	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
PL ply-pm4	Upavg 79.4¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$415.18	28% 155-391 (546)
RL RLWG	Upavg 74.3¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$343.12	65% 1894-1039 (2933)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 66.9¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$323.16	46% 931-1078 (2009)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 74.6¢	$749.24	$1.0K	+$254.33	42% 269-378 (647)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 38.2¢	$663.81	$858.71	+$241.9	58% 4924-3594 (8518)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 57.1¢	$906.72	$740.49	-$40.14	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$668.76	$706.84	+$38.07	55% 4316-3542 (7858)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.4¢	$203.11	$365.81	+$162.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$465.66	$341.03	-$124.63
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$573.69	$579.09	+$5.4	98% 3371-72 (3443)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 55.6¢	$560.93	$577.55	+$16.62	50% 461-464 (925)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$467.33	$365.46	-$101.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.9¢	$93.6	$212.09	+$118.49
MO mo-money	Upavg 84.3¢	$1.2K	$505	-$220.74	49% 1282-1313 (2595)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$547.78	$481.1	+$0.62	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$752.22	$340	+$29.01	51% 4549-4406 (8955)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.6¢	$121.11	$192.1	+$241.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$167	$147.9	-$212.49
BL blue.birds	Upavg 74¢	$325.09	$335.7	+$10.93	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 69.4¢	$329.57	$319.21	-$10.36	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$589.87	$282.21	+$32.97	50% 1296-1286 (2582)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$114.05	$159.45	+$168.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$120.95	$122.76	-$135.95
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 40.3¢	$124.07	$227.9	+$103.83	47% 1950-2185 (4135)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 27.6¢	$110.32	$207.99	+$119.67	44% 1915-2467 (4382)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Upavg 79.6¢	$159.93	$200.86	+$40.93	56% 74-57 (131)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 89¢	$167.87	$188.44	+$20.57	27% 105-290 (395)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 35.8¢	$124.75	$170.94	+$57.07	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 62¢	$101.85	$164.18	+$62.33	48% 165-176 (341)
ohioism	Upavg 51.4¢	$158.8	$161.3	+$2.5	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$144.5	$145.23	+$0.73	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 18.7¢	$1.1K	$140.28	-$916.69	58% 3542-2552 (6094)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$2,976.75

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$430.27

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

ply-pm4

Invested

$1,605.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$415.18

Record

28%

155-391 (546)

RLWG

Invested

$1,161.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$343.12

Record

65%

1894-1039 (2933)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,372.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$323.16

Record

46%

931-1078 (2009)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$749.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$254.33

Record

42%

269-378 (647)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$663.81

Value

$858.71

PnL

+$241.9

Record

58%

4924-3594 (8518)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$906.72

Value

$740.49

PnL

-$40.14

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$668.76

Value

$706.84

PnL

+$38.07

Record

55%

4316-3542 (7858)

Both legs:

Up$203.1131.4¢+$162.71

Down$465.6659.4¢-$124.63

hoodquant

Invested

$573.69

Value

$579.09

PnL

+$5.4

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$560.93

Value

$577.55

PnL

+$16.62

Record

50%

461-464 (925)

Both legs:

Down$467.3355.6¢-$101.87

Up$93.624.9¢+$118.49

mo-money

Invested

$1,176.94

Value

$505

PnL

-$220.74

Record

49%

1282-1313 (2595)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$547.78

Value

$481.1

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$752.22

Value

$340

PnL

+$29.01

Record

51%

4549-4406 (8955)

Both legs:

Up$121.1135.6¢+$241.49

Down$16749.1¢-$212.49

blue.birds

Invested

$325.09

Value

$335.7

PnL

+$10.93

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

asdcaxz

Invested

$329.57

Value

$319.21

PnL

-$10.36

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$589.87

Value

$282.21

PnL

+$32.97

Record

50%

1296-1286 (2582)

Both legs:

Up$114.0540.4¢+$168.91

Down$120.9542.9¢-$135.95

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$124.07

Value

$227.9

PnL

+$103.83

Record

47%

1950-2185 (4135)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$110.32

Value

$207.99

PnL

+$119.67

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Invested

$159.93

Value

$200.86

PnL

+$40.93

Record

56%

74-57 (131)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$167.87

Value

$188.44

PnL

+$20.57

Record

27%

105-290 (395)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$124.75

Value

$170.94

PnL

+$57.07

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

wowitsamazing

Invested

$101.85

Value

$164.18

PnL

+$62.33

Record

48%

165-176 (341)

ohioism

Invested

$158.8

Value

$161.3

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$144.5

Value

$145.23

PnL

+$0.73

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$1,108.05

Value

$140.28

PnL

-$916.69

Record

58%

3542-2552 (6094)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 36 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.