Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$688.71

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 29 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,757

Combined PnL+$58.5

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,493

Combined PnL-$747.21

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.57	98% 3348-72 (3420)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 42.2¢	$1.1K	$896.13	-$194.39	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.2¢	$576.45	—	-$576.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$514.07	$896.13	+$382.06
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.5¢	$707.12	$847.36	+$140.24	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$504.6	$497.04	-$5.96	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$248.52	$497.04	+$248.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$254.6	—	-$254.6
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 70.2¢	$354.61	$276.08	-$78.53	58% 4921-3591 (8512)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 32.5¢	$298.25	—	-$298.25	46% 927-1068 (1995)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 66.5¢	$228.17	$163.05	-$20.24	50% 460-459 (919)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 80.6¢	$99.06	$100	+$0.94	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 34¢	$115.69	—	-$115.69	55% 4306-3538 (7844)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$89.27	$46	-$28.55	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$42.97	—	-$42.97	50% 1286-1280 (2566)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 97.9¢	$57.82	$40	-$17.82	49% 847-871 (1718)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$35.01	—	-$35.01	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 53¢	$26.5	$50	+$23.5	50% 1753-1753 (3506)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$23.64	—	-$23.64	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 65¢	$32.35	$25	+$1.4	44% 1903-2453 (4356)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Downavg 57.2¢	$24.9	$43.51	+$18.61	38% 581-947 (1528)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Upavg 47.5¢	$57.78	—	-$48.98	57% 198-147 (345)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$15	—	-$15	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$14.39	—	-$14.39	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 53¢	$9.7	$10	+$0.3	50% 719-722 (1441)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 57¢	$3.42	$6	+$2.58	42% 1466-2059 (3525)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.25	$5	+$1.75	58% 3538-2545 (6083)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.25	$4.99	+$2.74	65% 1894-1039 (2933)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 13.3¢	$2.19	—	-$2.19	52% 2466-2274 (4740)