Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

21 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$23.49

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 27 top traders (78%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,550

Combined PnL+$77.48

Up6 traders

Total Value$498.62

Total Shares1,520

Combined PnL-$100.97

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$1.62	98% 3296-70 (3366)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 85.9¢	$1.0K	$939.3	-$101.7	41% 1415-2011 (3426)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 72.2¢	$685.07	$934.86	+$249.79	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 81.3¢	$909.23	$804.73	+$79.09	51% 2002-1886 (3888)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 85.1¢	$830.49	$802.01	-$28.48	47% 913-1050 (1963)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 87.8¢	$532.12	$499.35	-$32.77	50% 454-449 (903)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.4¢	$528.29	$490.7	-$7.2	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
BO bosona	Downavg 86.3¢	$463.43	$463.82	+$0.39	51% 4508-4382 (8890)
AL almach	Downavg 91¢	$1.1K	$450	-$112.65	50% 1264-1258 (2522)
MO mo-money	Downavg 97.5¢	$272.92	$275.38	+$2.46	49% 1252-1281 (2533)
LI Little-big	Downavg 65.2¢	$119.27	$182.91	+$63.64	51% 880-838 (1718)
AA aaa221	Downavg 82.7¢	$194.88	$182.65	-$12.23	60% 3392-2277 (5669)
ST stepahead	Downavg 73.4¢	$175.61	$162.52	-$13.09	55% 4289-3523 (7812)
gabigol	Downavg 98¢	$110.2	$103.81	-$6.39	48% 237-254 (491)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$81.2	$76	-$5.2	49% 841-865 (1706)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 93.4¢	$71.72	$69.11	-$2.61	52% 2431-2242 (4673)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 84¢	$72.6	$66.99	-$5.61	48% 1893-2072 (3965)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$46.42	$50.56	+$4.14	58% 186-135 (321)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$45.45	$45.93	+$0.47	50% 4185-4256 (8441)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 68¢	$34	$31.25	-$2.75	50% 1717-1721 (3438)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$27	$31	+$4	48% 1122-1203 (2325)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 83¢	$21.25	$19.84	-$1.41	47% 1910-2144 (4054)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5	$5.05	+$0.05	50% 702-708 (1410)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2	$2.37	+$0.37	14% 4-24 (28)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$35.78	$0.3	-$35.48	58% 3514-2517 (6031)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,802.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$1.62

Record

98%

3296-70 (3366)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$1,041

Value

$939.3

PnL

-$101.7

Record

41%

1415-2011 (3426)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$685.07

Value

$934.86

PnL

+$249.79

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$909.23

Value

$804.73

PnL

+$79.09

Record

51%

2002-1886 (3888)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$830.49

Value

$802.01

PnL

-$28.48

Record

47%

913-1050 (1963)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$532.12

Value

$499.35

PnL

-$32.77

Record

50%

454-449 (903)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$528.29

Value

$490.7

PnL

-$7.2

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

bosona

Down

Invested

$463.43

Value

$463.82

PnL

+$0.39

Record

51%

4508-4382 (8890)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,084.99

Value

$450

PnL

-$112.65

Record

50%

1264-1258 (2522)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$272.92

Value

$275.38

PnL

+$2.46

Record

49%

1252-1281 (2533)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$119.27

Value

$182.91

PnL

+$63.64

Record

51%

880-838 (1718)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$194.88

Value

$182.65

PnL

-$12.23

Record

60%

3392-2277 (5669)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$175.61

Value

$162.52

PnL

-$13.09

Record

55%

4289-3523 (7812)

gabigol

Down

Invested

$110.2

Value

$103.81

PnL

-$6.39

Record

48%

237-254 (491)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$81.2

Value

$76

PnL

-$5.2

Record

49%

841-865 (1706)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$71.72

Value

$69.11

PnL

-$2.61

Record

52%

2431-2242 (4673)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$72.6

Value

$66.99

PnL

-$5.61

Record

48%

1893-2072 (3965)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$46.42

Value

$50.56

PnL

+$4.14

Record

58%

186-135 (321)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$45.45

Value

$45.93

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

4185-4256 (8441)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$34

Value

$31.25

PnL

-$2.75

Record

50%

1717-1721 (3438)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$27

Value

$31

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

1122-1203 (2325)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$21.25

Value

$19.84

PnL

-$1.41

Record

47%

1910-2144 (4054)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

702-708 (1410)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.37

Record

14%

4-24 (28)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$35.78

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$35.48

Record

58%

3514-2517 (6031)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 27 top traders (78%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.