Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
29
Down 41%
3 arb excluded
$5.1K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 29 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.0K | -$376.78 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.6¢ | $1.1K | $2.0K | +$913.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.8¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 44.2¢ | $628.78 | — | -$565.44 | 58% 4908-3582 (8490) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 49.9¢ | $375.07 | $540.01 | +$164.94 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $520.55 | $499 | +$6.13 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $249.75 | — | -$246.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $247.12 | $499 | +$252.33 | |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 71.1¢ | $464.5 | — | -$464.5 | 50% 454-449 (903) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 27.1¢ | $279.41 | — | -$279.41 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
SU suntori | Upavg 69.2¢ | $258.82 | $374 | +$115.18 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 64.7¢ | $283.67 | — | -$275.36 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $323.21 | $333.7 | +$10.49 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45¢ | $150 | $333.7 | +$183.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $173.21 | — | -$173.21 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.5¢ | $278.39 | $282.55 | +$4.16 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 49.2¢ | $312.81 | — | -$312.81 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 67¢ | $563.9 | $250 | +$25.9 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 46.9¢ | $173.1 | $200 | +$26.9 | 49% 841-865 (1706) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 59¢ | $132.39 | $150 | +$17.61 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
AL Alpharo28CTR | Downavg 81.1¢ | $112.9 | — | -$112.9 | 58% 186-135 (321) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 91¢ | $101.96 | $112 | +$10.04 | 26% 422-1198 (1620) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Upavg 86.6¢ | $65.75 | $75.95 | +$10.2 | 34% 63-123 (186) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 36.2¢ | $48.93 | — | -$39.14 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $28.67 | $60.99 | +$32.32 | 60% 3392-2277 (5669) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $36.79 | $94.33 | +$57.54 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 80.8¢ | $37.18 | $30 | -$7.18 | 48% 1122-1203 (2325) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 88.7¢ | $24.5 | $27.61 | +$3.11 | 25% 265-775 (1040) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $25.85 | $26.11 | +$0.26 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $13.6 | — | -$13.6 | 58% 3514-2517 (6031) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.1¢ | $20 | — | -$20 | 37% 1256-2094 (3350) |
Invested
$2,347.83
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$376.78
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Both legs:
Invested
$628.78
Value
—
PnL
-$565.44
Record
58%
4908-3582 (8490)
Invested
$375.07
Value
$540.01
PnL
+$164.94
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$520.55
Value
$499
PnL
+$6.13
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
Invested
$464.5
Value
—
PnL
-$464.5
Record
50%
454-449 (903)
Invested
$279.41
Value
—
PnL
-$279.41
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$258.82
Value
$374
PnL
+$115.18
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
Invested
$283.67
Value
—
PnL
-$275.36
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$323.21
Value
$333.7
PnL
+$10.49
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Both legs:
Invested
$278.39
Value
$282.55
PnL
+$4.16
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$312.81
Value
—
PnL
-$312.81
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$563.9
Value
$250
PnL
+$25.9
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$173.1
Value
$200
PnL
+$26.9
Record
49%
841-865 (1706)
Invested
$132.39
Value
$150
PnL
+$17.61
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$112.9
Value
—
PnL
-$112.9
Record
58%
186-135 (321)
NIULAI4Invested
$101.96
Value
$112
PnL
+$10.04
Record
26%
422-1198 (1620)
Invested
$65.75
Value
$75.95
PnL
+$10.2
Record
34%
63-123 (186)
Invested
$48.93
Value
—
PnL
-$39.14
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
Invested
$28.67
Value
$60.99
PnL
+$32.32
Record
60%
3392-2277 (5669)
Invested
$36.79
Value
$94.33
PnL
+$57.54
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$37.18
Value
$30
PnL
-$7.18
Record
48%
1122-1203 (2325)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$24.5
Value
$27.61
PnL
+$3.11
Record
25%
265-775 (1040)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$26.11
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$13.6
Value
—
PnL
-$13.6
Record
58%
3514-2517 (6031)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
-$20
Record
37%
1256-2094 (3350)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $540.01
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
suntori
Up — $374
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $282.55